That CNN poll of likely voters only sampled 575 people!

diplomats

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 04:51 PM
Original message

That CNN poll of likely voters only sampled 575 people!

I just saw that on http://www.pollingrerport.com

That's a small number. No wonder the margin of error is 5 percent. :eyes:

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

ALago1

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 04:53 PM
Response to Original message

1. actually that's a pretty decent number

Statistic generalization of a general population is fairly accurate at a truly random sample of 100 or so people.

So, if this is sample is random, 575 is more than enough

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

Nederland

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #1

6. Not true

A sample size of 100 would yield a margin of error of about 12.8% with a 99% confidence level. At least I think that's a pretty big MOE...

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

Zynx

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #1

7. For a potential voting population of 100,000,000?

What school of statistics did you go to?

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

ALago1

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. You missed the key to my post

If the 100 people sampled were truly randomly selected (which I'm not sure of b/c I didn't look into the methodology of CNN's polling), 575 is not a bad number at all...

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

whistle

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 05:17 PM
Response to Original message

2. It seems that the poll sample size was done on the cheap...

Edited on Mon May-10-04 05:17 PM by whistle

...the better number would be 1,100 or higher sample yielding results of +/- 3.0%. I also heard them announce that the survey showed approval to be split right down party lines...75% of republicans approve of the job Bush is doing while 75% of democrats disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president. Among independents the number has slipped just over 50% disapproving of Bush's job. So, if democrats can maximize turnout on November 2, Kerry wins it!

I'd really like to see those poll samples expanded because I think the margin of error is far too large for making such claims. Hey they could stick the poll on their web-site and also ask party.

:kick:

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

tritsofme

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. I think the total sample was around 1000

but only 575 of those 1000 could be identified as likely voters.

If it is the case that we would have somewhere around 57% voter turnout, that would be good for us.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

flpoljunkie

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. Schneider also said that Kerry is ahead by 6% with registered voters...

We need to register more voters and get out the vote in November.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

Mattforclark

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon May-10-04 05:38 PM
Response to Original message

4. CNN is cheap

Cheap, Cheap, Cheap.

575? For a national poll? That they are going to hurl around the airwaves for an extended period of time?

The media is so so so (expletive) irresponsible.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DU AdBot (1000+ posts)

Mon May 06th 2024, 05:33 PM
Response to Original message

Advertisements [?]

Top

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.