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I agree that Hillary needs to win Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina to remain viable

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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:31 PM
Original message
I agree that Hillary needs to win Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina to remain viable
She needs to win a state Obama is favored in to shake the race up and cause a crisis of confidence with the superdelegates. Otherwise, the supers will start moving and the race will be over in June.
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. Hermy.. Hermy... Hermy...
Here's a big fat clue...

Hillary is not going to be viable at all. At best, she's dragging the party to the ground. She'll be 'suspending' her campaign VERY soon (She is VERY deep in the red ink)

Hawkeye-X
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ossman Donating Member (883 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:32 PM
Response to Original message
2. I am saving your post. You promise?
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I said it about Ohio and Texas
and I'll say it about these 3.

She needs to win to keep going.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. And the converse of this, if she doesn't, she'll quit.
Primarily because the superdelegates will move to Obama, but also because she will do the politically responsible thing.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #4
52. NC with a very large AA population voting in Dem primary at Obama 90+/10 will be interesting
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #4
56. All 3 or just one?
Chuck Todd said if they split NC and IN, Obama will probably be the nominee.
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julialnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. She's expected to win Pennsylvania and Indiana... she would more need
North Carolina or Oregon
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:35 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. I think North Carolina is key because the expected black turnout is 33%
Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 09:35 PM by Herman Munster
So do the math, if she does 70/30 or better with whites, she'll eke out a win. If she doesn't, she won't.

The superdelegates need to see Obama's white support dropping to dangerous levels to cause the crisis of confidence with Obama she needs to win.
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wileedog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
24. Wow
Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 09:46 PM by wileedog
You are actively hoping the leading Dem nominee is smeared hard enough by the MSM to result in a "crisis of confidence" that would in all probability lead to the end of the Democratic Party if the SDs overturn the vote. It certainly would lead to a mass African American exodus from the party, as well as turning off millions of newly registered young Democrats forever to the process.

And all so your favorite can snake her way into a GE she will lose without those constituents.

President McCain sends his thanks.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #24
31. Nah, the superdelegate decision would be made reasonable.
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wileedog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #31
37. Because she won a few states late
it becomes reasonable to over-turn the entire voting process?

Not going to happen.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. If the popular vote flips and if Obama is falling rapidly it damn sure will.
That was the whole point of superdelegates. Now we got a chance to use them for what they're for. Preventing a failing candidate from running.
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wileedog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #40
43. Good luck selling that
Obama is not 'failing' even if he gets a few less delegates in NC.

He will still enter the Convention with a commanding PD lead, a strong and devoted base, and the entire African American vote which the Dem SDs know full well they cannot win without.

Tossing him aside because they are afraid of the scary black pastor is political suicide for the party.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. OK
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #24
33. where are african americans going to go?
They like Mr. Wright's chickens will come home to roost.
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wileedog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #33
41. That's great
Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 10:01 PM by wileedog
First African American Presidential Candidate to actually be nominated and a bunch of largely white party insiders toss him aside for their favorite.

I'm sure they will forgive and forget and turn out in droves for Hillary.

Are you for real?
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kennetha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #41
51. I'm tired of you Obamaniacs threatening some sort of race war
if you candidate loses fair and square by the rules.

Talk about playing the race card! Talk about gutter politics! Threats and Intimidation -- that's your "new" politics. I guess you can call the politics of unquestionable entitlement. Question my entitlement and I'll tear your house down.

How ugly and irresponsible.
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emilyg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #51
58. Bravo!
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wileedog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #51
59. OK, you tell me what is going to happen
Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 11:32 PM by wileedog
Puppies, butterflies and black voters turning out in droves to support the person who supplanted the first ever officially elected African American Presidential Nominee?

Seriously, you are tired of threats, you tell me exactly how this is going to play out in your opinion. I'm curious to hear, I'm looking for discussion not threats.
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kennetha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #59
60. Black people are not petulant children
The thought that black people will rise up and riot because a black man loses a nomination process in a way that completely accords with the rules of the party is insulting to black people. It is also pure demagoguery and is ugly repugnant race-baiting.

I very seriously doubt that your candidate would be a party to such ugly race-baiting demagoguery. You shouldn't either.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-24-08 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #51
61. so, Kenn-dog,will you be voting for President Obama?
or do you threaten to vote McCain like a little bitch?

Hillary is entitled to shit.
It makes me smile to know that you will never have the pleasure of seeing Hillary nominated.
;)
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dionysus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #33
57. hookay grand dragon...
:rofl:
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:33 PM
Response to Original message
5. it's over for her , you can't just dismiss everything that has happened
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Hoof Hearted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
15. it's over for him, you can't just dismiss everything that has happened
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #15
45. she just has to keep up what she has been doing and everything will be fine
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:34 PM
Response to Original message
6. That's exactly it.
Her only chance is to persuade the superD's to her side. Both those who haven't endorsed and some of Obama's. That will only happen if he implodes catastrophically, which I don't see happening--his campaign is very good, or if she runs the table beyond May 6th to probably May 20th. And, I don't see that happening either, unless Obama implodes.
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. last poll out of NC has Obama with a 1 point lead
PPP has been very good this year and they are based in NC. They should know their home state.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_031908.pdf
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. I'm in NC.
I think Obama will win here, handily. We have a lot of time until May 6th. Every Obama meeting overflows. Volunteers are plenty and excited.

Can Hillary afford to stay in until May 6th, anyway??
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #10
16. people said the same thing in Ohio and Texas
There is a strong silent majority of Hillary supporters out there that are not as activist and visible as Obama supporters but to pretend they don't exist isn't being honest with yourself.

It's been the pattern in every state that Obama significantly gets more volunteers and people at his rallies.

The truth is Hillary's support skews older and poorer. These people are not able to be as visible but they do come out on election day.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:45 PM
Original message
Be careful touting Texas, the delegate count went to Obama.
Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 09:45 PM by tekisui
As for Ohio, it was by 10%.

I appreciate that Hillary is able to STILL bring out many supporters. I am also impressed that Obama STILL brings out enough to win.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:47 PM
Response to Original message
27. Which is something those superdelegates are going to strongly consider.
The fact that Obama won a state in delegates even though he lost a huge portion of the popular vote.

It shows how disproportionately representative caucuses are.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #27
32. It wasn't a huge portion.
It was by 100,000 out of nearly 3 million.

I don't think the SuperD's are too worried about delegate allocation.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. She'll just write herself another check. n/t
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. it's her money and under campaign finance rules she doesn't have to pay herself back
Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 09:43 PM by Herman Munster
She made many many millions on her books and royalties. Why can't she spend it on a cause she believes in?
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. Did I say any differently? I can't wait to see exactly where she REALLY got those
"many many millions." This should be interesting.
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #22
30. i think his name is Hsu
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #30
39. Yeah, that's one of 'em. I'd also like to see the contributors to Clinton's library
among other things.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #17
34. She already used $10 million of her Senate Campaign money!
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #34
50. Sad. She should just save it and remain my Senator. n/t
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ossman Donating Member (883 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #10
21. What are the registration rules and can Indies vote in NC?
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. Modified Primary.
Independents can vote in either. Dems and Pukes are held to their party.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. That poll was taken right during/after the Wright stuff and before his speech.
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. yeah, so?
show me a more recent poll and we'll talk.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #18
29. So it's very likely that when the next poll DOES come out he'll have increased his lead.
Duh.
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. I think we'll know a lot after Pennsylvania
I'm looking for a minimum win of 20 points with all her advantages in the state. Also very important is Obama's white support in PA. Does he break 30% or not.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. 20 points!
I would be shocked by that margin. She's only done that in her home state of Arkansas. She has not been able to pull that margin anywhere else inthe country. I don't see it happening in PA or anywhere left.
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. demography is destiny
PA is a closed primary state and she carried white democrats in Ohio 70-30 and this was before the Wright controversy and she was outspent 3:1.

20 points is very doable. In fact, 30 points is doable given that there are less blacks in Pennsylvania than Ohio, independents and republicans are banned from voting, and Ed Rendell has an even stronger machine than Strickland.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #23
28. Holy Shit, 30 % !!!
I would shit my pants if that happened. I won't.

One more month, a lot can change. Hillary's broke.

And two more debates!
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #23
36. The fact that Repubs. can't vote in PA is good news for Obama, since now "Limbaughians"
have been voting for her, even more so than honest Repubs. are voting for Obama. They gave her the popular vote win in TX and gave her the margin she got in OH.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #36
38. Is this why Obama's campaign sent out a memo to get Reps registered as Dems there?
Yeah, OK. :hi:
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #38
42. Legit. Repubs. voting for Obama are different from Limbaughians.
As a matter of fact, Limbaugh may be investigated for voter fraud. :hi:
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #42
47. Oh, OK. The same people who voted for Bush, should decide our nominee.
Edited on Sun Mar-23-08 10:14 PM by joshcryer
Gotcha.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. Those who have finally realized their mistake, yes. We want to INCREASE the people who agree with
Dems.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #48
53. Until they vote McCain in the GE.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #53
54. You're obviously confusing them with Limbaughians. n/t
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:38 PM
Response to Original message
9. The talking heads have been saying this for a while now because they always need a narrative
to talk about. Even if she DOES win those 3, she can't/won't win the nomination. Just because the media says so doesn't make it true. The SDs aren't going to flock to her if she wins less than 63% of EVERY remaining state. That's the math.
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #9
26. super delegates will get scared shitless
if Hillary wins a string of primaries and Obama can't break 30% in the white vote.
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Hoof Hearted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:39 PM
Response to Original message
12. She just needs to come close in NC, if she wins SD, that would be very helpful.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:25 PM
Response to Reply #12
49. She's not going to win South Dakota
You can just cross that one right off your list.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
35. A train traveliing at 65 mph is followed by another train .. a mile behind it
That train is traveling at 50 mph.. The 2nd train will NEVER catch the first train, unless it stalls on the tracks and the 2nd one crashes into it, killing the engineer..
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BlueJac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
44. There is no need to talk to Hillary supporters.......
It is time to support the candidate. Let's all move forward for Obama!
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LordJFT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-23-08 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
55. she needs to win the popular vote to have any chance at all, the pledged delegates to have a
to have a good chance
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