PA Primary • PA Demographics • Can Hillary win it all? • How much difference will it make?

150 delegates separate the two candidates with Obama leading http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html

188 delegates up for grabs in PA

2006 Registered Voters: 3,985,486 D (47.6%); 3,405,278 R (40.7%); 975,899 unaffiliated and minor parties (11.7%)
http://election.nationaljournal.com/states/pa.htm
This doesn't take into account, of course, newly registered voters, or crossover voters.

Demographic breakdown of PA in general, no party affiliation noted

Persons under 18 years old, percent, 2006 22.5%
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006 15.2%
Female persons, percent, 2006 51.4%
White persons, percent, 2006 (a) 85.7%
Black persons, percent, 2006 (a) 10.7%
American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent, 2006 (a) 0.2%
Asian persons, percent, 2006 (a) 2.4%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, percent, 2006 (a) Z
Persons reporting two or more races, percent, 2006 1.0%
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006 (b) 4.2%
White persons not Hispanic, percent, 2006 82.1%
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/42000.html

If Hillary can pull of a huge win, 86%, she will get all of the delegates and take the lead in pledged delegates.

A big win could effective close the 150 delegate lead.

To use Illinois breakdown as an example:
H wins by 65% to 33% she gets 140 delegates and O gets 48

bringing the delegate lead of O to 58 with more primaries favorable to H on the way.

The race is far from over.

Every vote counts in a democracy.

Not on your tintype.

85% would be mind blowing, but in this election cycle :shrug:

We went 65% for Obama and we are his home state.

not for who won it,

how is that incorrect? PA has more delegates than IL

However I think it is important to keep in mind that Illinois was Obama's home state. It is entirely possible though.

Just sayin'.

I get so damn tired of Obama supporters using Republican words for the Democratic Party base.

Shame on you.

Oh, and fuck you too.

She needs to tell when and where she was at when being shot at If there was no such event then it is over.

more exaggerations for dramatic effect, typical and not surprising

She will have to answer this. It is a growing question for her that she must answer.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4924604

Thank You ButterflyBlood

This is the next state that Hillary supporters like to talk about and look at, but frankly, even if Hillary's favored, it's not going to give her a huge boost. In fact, Obama could very well cancel out Pennsylvania's margin with Wyoming!

Let's look at each district. Pennsylvania has 103 delegates allocated by district and 55 at large.:

PA-1: 7 delegates. Pretty damn close to majority black but Hillary should do well among whites. Obama is still certain to win, but whether he gets 4 or 5 delegates is a turnout battle. I'll be kind to Hillary and assume it's 4-3 Obama.
PA-2: 9 delegates. 61% black, and the whites here are much more unfriendly to Hillary. This district is simply brutal for her. 7-2 Obama.
PA-3: 5 delegates. This is a good district for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-4: 5 delegates. Another good district for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-5: 4 delegates. Hillary should win most of the district, but she has a severe problem with it containing Penn State. No one will win enough to win more than 2 delegates apeice.
PA-6: 6 delegates. The parts of this district that demographically favor Obama vote Democratic. The parts that demographically favor Hillary vote Republican. Obama stands a damn good shot of doing well enough to win 4 delegates to her 2, but I'll be generous and call it a tie.
PA-7: 7 delegates. Very good district for Obama. 4-3 Obama.
PA-8: 7 delegates. Same deal. 4-3 Obama.
PA-9: 3 delegates. This is a good district for Hillary, but with 3 delegates margin doesn't matter. 2-1 Hillary.
PA-10: 4 delegates. Can Hillary break 62.5% here? It's worth noting that she only barely got around that in the parts of New York bordering the district where she got a bounce no doubt. But in this I'm always giving her the benefit of the doubt. 3-1 Hillary.
PA-11: 5 delegates. Good territory for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-12: 5 delegates. Also good territory for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-13: 7 delegates. This district isn't overwhelmingly favorable to Obama, but it's tough to see how he loses. 4-3 Obama.
PA-14: 7 delegates. This is a tossup. Almost 24% black, but Hillary should do very well among whites. Frankly you might as well flip a coin to see how it votes, but I'm being kind to Hillary. 4-3 Hillary.
PA-15: 5 delegates. This district is changing, but still good for Hillary at this moment. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-16: 4 delegates. Hillary favored probably, but it's only 4 delegates. It'll split.
PA-17: 4 delegates. This is probably the blackest rural district outside of the south. It's 12.4% black, and the whites are mostly Republican, so the percentage of the black voters in the primary is larger. Flip a coin to see who wins, but it really doesn't matter due to the even number of delegates.
PA-18: 5 delegates. I could see a case for Obama here, but Hillary still favored. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-19: 4 delegates. Another 4 delegate district with 2 apeice.

Total? 52 delegates for Hillary and 51 for Obama. Now the 55 at large. I'm going to continue being generous to Hillary and assume she has a 10 point victory. 55% gives her 30 delegates to Obama's 25. That's a total victory over Obama of 6 delegates.

Put simply, don't count on PA to put a massive dent in Obama's lead.

pledged

Assuming 50-50 split in the other states.

:rofl:

and Obama none

pledged delegates available in PA = 158

:rofl:

so where are you coming up with this? Do you actually believe she would win EACH congressional district with 86%?

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 49% to 39%. That’s little changed from earlier in the month when Clinton led 51% to 38%.
In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. That’s down from 76% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 71%, a figure that is little changed from 72% earlier in the month.




Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters in Pennsylvania have read, seen, or heard about comments made by Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s former Pastor. Nearly half, 47%, say it has no impact on their vote. Fifteen percent (15%) say Wright’s comments make them more likely to vote for Obama while 36% say the opposite.
Overall, 38% are somewhat or very concerned about Obama’s relationship with Wright. That figure includes 62% of Clinton supporters, 11% of Obama voters, and 36% of those who are undecided.


http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary