Delegate Myth and Fact (Bowers, OpenLeft)

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4798

excerpt:

Myth: The Pledged delegate count is close

Fact: Obama leads pledged delegates by 6.0% with only 17.4% remaining

According to the best available count, Obama currently leads among pledged delegates 1,415.5 to 1,253.5, a margin of 162 with 18 delegates currently for Edwards and 566 left to be determined. In terms of percentages, this translates to Obama 52.7%--46.7% Clinton, with 82.6% reporting. In any other campaign, if a candidate led by 6% with 83% reporting, all major news outlets would project that candidate as the winner. 6.0% is greater than the margin by which Bill Clinton won the 1992 election, and also greater than the margin by which Republicans won the 2002 midterms. I don't know anyone who follows politics who considers those close campaigns.

Myth: Clinton can use Michigan and Florida to catch up

Fact: The Obama campaign will dictate what happens in Michigan and Florida

Some delegate totals include the Michigan and Florida delegations projected based on the result of the January primaries in those states. This is a mistake, and not because of any arguments about democracy or rules or whatever. Instead, it is a mistake simply because it is inaccurate. The fact is that there will be no revote in Michigan and Florida. The fact is that any pre-June deal on the Michigan and Florida delegations will have to be approved by the Barack Obama campaign. The fact is that after June 10th, the credentials committee takes jurisdiction over the matter. The fact is that Barack Obama will control the credentials committee, since its members are elected by pledged delegates. The fact is that even if the credentials committee submits a minority report on the Michigan and Florida delegations to the floor of the convention, Florida and Michigan delegates will not participate in that vote. In other words, the fact is that unless Clinton catches Barack Obama in non-Florida and Michigan delegates, then Obama will be able to dictate how Florida and Michigan are seated at the convention. As such, Clinton cannot use Florida and Michigan as a means to catch up unless the Obama campaign allows her to do so.

Myth: Clinton can use a combination of pledged and superdelegates to catch Obama

Fact: There are only 841 delegates left, and Obama leads by 141

As already mentioned, there are only 566 pledged delegates yet to be determined by primaries and caucuses. It should also be noted that there are only 263 superdelegates left to be determined, and that 455 of the 718, or more than 63%, of the superdelegates have already endorsed. This is because 76 of the superdelegates are actually "add-on" delegates, that are basically the same as pledged delegates in terms of campaign vetting and intense loyalty to a given candidate. Because he has won more states, currently Barack Obama is projected to win 40 add-on delegates, Clinton 24, and 12 are still to be determined by states that have yet to hold primaries or caucuses. Overall, this means that Barack Obama only needs 42.7% (359.5 of the 841) of the remaining pledged, add-on, and undecided superdelegates in order to reach 2,024, at which point he can dictate favorable delegations from Michigan and Florida and secure the nomination.

Here is an example of just how bad things are for Clinton. Even if Obama loses Pennsylvania by 20%, and then draws even in Indiana and North Carolina, two states where he currently holds double-digit leads, then Obama will need less than 40% (196.5 of 492) of the remaining delegates to reach 2,024. If a 20% Pennsylvania victory and ties in both Indiana and North Carolina actually put Clinton further from the nomination than she currently is, then yes, the delegate math is decisively stacked against Clinton.

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In summary, reaching 2,024 will give Obama the nomination, and he has an extremely low bar to reach 2,024. The Clinton campaign seems to be banking almost entirely on the fanciful notion that they can convince pledged and super delegates who have declared their support for Obama to switch.

Chris Bowers says, The Clinton campaign seems to be banking almost entirely on the fanciful notion that they can convince pledged and super delegates who have declared their support for Obama to switch.

I'm increasingly convinced by her actions that she is indeed running a scorched earth, "If I can't have the nomination then I'll make sure the nominee loses so I can have a go in 2012," campaign. I don't think her campaign is so stupid or deluded to believe she can actually get the nod.

http://www.openleft.com/showComment.do?commentId=54232

from Time Magazine, May 1980, for example:

Said Press Secretary Jody Powell: "There is no scenario by which Kennedy can win the nomination." This is hotly denied by Kennedy aides, who have drafted a strategy that depends less on delegate totals than on persuading the party that the President cannot win in November.