The Huckabee Index (or, the point of mathematical improbability for the Clinton campaign)

I'm coining a new phrase today! The "Huckabee Index" is the number of any combination of superdelegates or convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically improbable for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination. Named in honor of the same Huckabee who stayed in the GOP primary race even past his point of mathematical improbability.

Today's Huckabee Index is 79 (or 24.9% of the remaining SDs)

Feel free to download the spreadsheet and play around with the polling figures. Here's the link:
http://www.box.net/shared/26wlqb9s8s

The spreadsheet accounts for delegates and superdelegates already earned, and projects probable delegate outcomes for upcoming contests based on polls, to arrive at a number of SDs that, if earned, would put the nomination out of reach for the other candidate if the rest of the contests go as polled. (You can change the superdelegate totals to whichever source you trust most ... I used NBC as my source because it lists the most reported superdelegates for both candidates.)

(disclaimer: I'm poking fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

I can almost hear a pin drop.

:thumbsup:

If not, thanks!

:hi:

:thumbsup:

In your chart, you have 99 as the magic number, but then list 79 below it. Why 79?

Although Senator Obama's magic number to put HIM across the nomination threshold is 99, the number to KEEP Senator Clinton from crossing the threshold is 79.

317 total, minus 238 needed = 79 needed to prevent it

:dunce:

(Note: It dropped to 77 this morning)

Well, this is fun, too. So if he gets 79 -- now 77 -- of the remaining super D's, she won't be able to reach 2025.

A few variables left that can skew this, tho:

There's still 18 delegates left in Edwards' column -- he may lose a few more from Iowa before the national, but the 12 from NH and SC may go to the national convention.

Total delegates from caucus states can shift a bit between now and their state conventions. Colorado's totals, in particular, are believed to be rather nebulous.

Some of the states that there were no polls for may vary from the guesstimate on the result -- I've seen reports that Kentucky will probably vote like Tennessee, giving Clinton a major win. On the other hand, I've also read that Oregon will go for Obama, so that should balance out.

At any rate, this is a great angle to watch the race from. So while everyone's arguing about not letting the super D's decide it, they are quietly trickling in and endorsing Obama (my assumption based on your figure going from 79 to 77). When they oh-so-quietly pass that magic threshold, we'll suddenly have an epiphany in the news media -- "Hey everyone, there's not enough super D's left for Clinton to reach 2025!"

Yippee! :woohoo:

Some have said that Senator Obama could gain up to six more pledged delegates from Texas on Saturday. That would decrease the Huckabee Index.

You're right about some of the polls, it's a bit skewed toward Senator Clinton's favor in Oregon and Montana because those are older polls. But it also seems to be skewed toward Senator Obama in Indiana. There should be updated polls for those states soon, hopefully.

I wonder if (big if) John Edwards endorsed Senator Obama, would that move Edwards' 18 delegates to Obama? I guess it would depend on the delegates themselves.