Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" is backfiring ... here's proof ...

If you're like me, then Rush Limbaugh is the *only* lunchtime political news talk radio program available. I will usually try to make myself listen to sports talk radio, but I sometimes find myself cursing myself while turning to Rush. And when I have done so lately, he has been talking *nonstop* about his "Operation Chaos" - patting himself on the back incessantly for the supposedly great impact that he is having upon the Democratic race. There's just one problem: a closer look at the evidence does not back up his claim.

We learned today that, in North Carolina, a grand total of *12,000* Republicans have switched to either "uncommitted" or Democrat, as is required for them to vote in the semi-closed (Dems and independents only) primary there.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/03/854832.aspx

In a state as big as North Carolina, 12,000 voters is nothing, and you have to assume that a significant number of those are either Obama supporters or genuine Hillary supporters. I expect something like 4,000 true Limbaugh mischief-makers is a reasonable estimate. They still have a week to register there, but these aren't big numbers by any stretch of the imagination.

Moving on to Pennsylvania, there have been a large number of Republicans switch to the Democratic party, but the evidence suggests that the new registrations involve largely Obama supporters. As noted in this article:

"Another high-stakes voter registration drive just concluded in Pennsylvania, where the deadline to register as a Democrat and participate in the primary was March 24. The Pennsylvania Department of State reports that more than 234,000 voters have either newly registered as Democrats or switched from other parties, and the state hasn't finished counting the new registrations.

'We put together a massive effort,' said Hildebrand, saying that the numbers include 'over 200k Obama supporters' - an impressive number, and likely more than 10 percent of the total turnout in the primary."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/04/02/politics/politico/main3988307.shtml

This article confirms that the new registrations have largely come from pro-Obama areas of the state:

http://www.csmonitor.com/patchworknation/csmstaff/2008/0331/new-democrats-may-lift-obama-in-pennsylvania-2/

Perhaps even worse for Rush is the fact that it is becoming increasingly apparent that the daily gloat-fest on his radio show is driving undecided Democrats - and those who just want the whole thing to be over- into Obama's camp. As proof thereof, we get this very interesting quote from Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen. This article describes how PPP was shocked to see their Pennsylvania polling showing Obama pulling ahead in recent days, so they did another night's polling to confirm the results before releasing them. The results showed a 2 point lead for Obama, and Insider Advantage just released a poll showing Hillary with only a 2 point lead in PA in spite of obviously underestimating his support among black voters. So the switch to Obama seems clear. As far as the reason for the switch, Jensen cites concerns among loyal Democrats about the toll the drawn-out race is having:

"At any rate, Jensen ascribed voters’ change of heart to growing anxieties that a drawn-out nomination fight may hurt the party’s chance of defeating the likely Republican nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, in November. 'People just want to wrap this up,' Jensen said."

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/04/03/obama-cuts-clintons-lead-but-by-how-much/?mod=WSJBlog?mod=homeblogmod_washingtonwire

So what we see from the actual data is the Rush Limbaugh appears to be having very limited success in getting his supporters to switch party registrations to vote in the remaining contests. And the key weakness of Operation Chaos is that - with the lamentable exception of Indiana - the remaining major contests are closed to Republicans, so that some form of new registration is required of Republicans who wish to participate. Even those Limbaugh listeners who might be inclined to listen to his instructions have mostly proven themselves unwilling to take the burdensome step of actually changing parties. And they will be required to do so in states like Oregon, North Carolina, and West Virignia. It is too late for them to do so in Kentucky, and time is quickly running out in the other states.

Thus, the nature of the remaining primaries means that the universe of actual potential *voters* consists overwhelmingly of Democrats and independents. And it is a safe bet that these groups are unlikely to respond at all favorably to an arrogant windbag like Limbaugh telling them how to vote, in order to create "chaos."

The one place Limbaugh might do genuine harm is in Indiana, but the Survey USA poll there showed the Republican vote there as only giving Hillary a 2 point bump in her poll numbers:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=35417ff6-4985-47ce-8e1b-3fbe566d108d

So if we assume that Rush does give Hillary a 2 point bump in the one state with truly open voting, that seems like a pretty meager payoff for all the motivation that his daily gloating is going to give to Democrats in the remaining states who are either undecided or who just want what is best for the Democratic party. And it should be emphasized that Limbaugh will likely drive democrats and independents in Indiana to Obama, since they likely won't care for some outsider tampering with their elections.

Any discussion of the actual primary voting leaves out the fact that the most important remaining voters- for better or worse - are the Democratic party superdelegates. And I don't think I need to mention exactly how enthusiastic this group of voters is for Rush Limbaugh. I can not think of anything more likely to drive superdelegates to an early endoresement of Obama than having Limbaugh engage in his daily boasting about the damage he is supposedly inflicting upon the Democratic party.

With every rant on his show, Limbaugh is making it abundantly clear to everyone listening that the Republican party and its stooges know that what is best for the Democratic party is for Obama to win this race as quickly as possible. And as evidenced by the latest poll results in Pennsylvania, this is proving a powerful motivator for Democrats to rally around Obama. That's why I can say with all sincerity that I hope that Rush Limbaugh continues to talk about nothing other than Operations Chaos in the coming weeks and months.

I would say that less than 100 have done so at the behest of Rush Limbaugh. Totally over-estimated.