In Democratic Strongholds in NJ, voters not yet strong on Kerry

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A4755-2004May31.html


......I'm starting to get concerned about NJ. Interestingly enough, it's not because more New Jerseyans prefer * (which is bs) but because so many Independants are apathetic about Kerry. However, I believe this latest Quinnipiac Poll is just a fluke. Also, the WaPo article fails to point out that NJ was this close for most of the 2000 Election, and was even classified as a swing state merely leaning towards Gore.

So even though a lot of people may be scared off by the social policies of this admin, their pocketbooks have not yet been affected so they aren't fully sold on Kerry.

There are a lot of wealthy individuals in this state and a lot of corporations based here. Ultimately NJ ends up going Dem, despite the ambivalence towards the candidates. Nobody loved McGreevey but they didn't like Schundler any better. Nobody loved Lautenberg but they didn't like Franks or whoever it was that ran against him any better.

They both used to be solid Reagan/Bush Sr. states (Clinton only won NJ in '92 by 3%!!!!) and both during the '80s were the typical "keep our suburbs away from soft-on-crime pols". Yet, these Qunnipiac polls tend to be made up of "registered voters". It's possible that Quinnipiac has an old voting roll, from the Reagan era, and could be calling up people who haven't voted much since the Reagan years.

During the primaries a little digging and I found that several of the pollsters like Quinnipiac and Mason Dixon were not using voter rolls, but the 2001 phone disk software which you can buy for 49 dollars (for the New One) This disk has me listed with 5 different phone numbers going as far back as ten years. So yes, that could be a good explaination. Also it was taking these people as many as 40 calls to the numbers in the listings to reach on person and then getting someone who would answer the polls.


But neither Jersey or California are listed as battleground states
and the latest poll afrer the SUSA poll which had Kerry and Bush a point apart in California has been superceded by a new field poll which concurs with other polls and Kerry has a large lead in this new poll:

Bush's numbers fall among likely voters
By Bill Ainsworth
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
May 26, 2004

SACRAMENTO – Democrat John Kerry holds a double-digit lead over President Bush among likely California voters, according to the latest Field Poll.




The Massachusetts senator leads Bush 51 percent to 39 percent, with Ralph Nader winning support from 4 percent of those surveyed.

In a matchup without Nader, the presumptive Democratic nominee leads Bush 55 percent to 40 percent.


http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20040526-9999-1n26field.html

Ultimately they will join the solid northeast like in 2000. Kerry will win by at least 9 points. NJ just decides a little late, but Kerry shouldn't sweat it.

Kerry should get 55% or more.

like I said, NJ appeared close throughout the 2000 Election, and was classified as a swing state by some in the media. Yet it widened dramatically as the Election season progressed, and showed it's true blue.

...stages.

The first is going to be the less expensive stage. Give Bush enough rope to hang himself. Now is when people will be thinking that they're voting against Bush. They don't need to know much about Kerry to do that. They just need to contemplate Bush.

Stage two will be the more expensive stage: introduce Kerry to the public in a big way. The more people know about him, the more they'll like him. Of course, he can't let Bush define him before he defines himself, but it doesn't look like Bush is doing much that is sticking anyway. He's got to spend all his money and time just trying to get Ohioans to hold on regardless of what people think about Kerry.

Never be too sure of this! Have a Plan B! :)

Bruce Springstein.