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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:30 AM
Original message
Poll question: Regarding a brokered convention.
First a bit of math to consider:



From what I've read these figures are accurate.

Whether voters follow through with defecting in the face of a McCaine presidency is open to debate, but remember - every defection is worth two votes to them. One less for us, one more for them equals two net votes.

More likely that people sit out and don't bother to vote. There's certainly going to be plenty merely voting - certainly not championing the nominee they perceive as having played dirty politics with their favored choice.

However you slice it it looks like we risk losing a significant number of Democratic votes and support with the way it is now.

So here's the question:

Suppose that Al Gore and Jimmy Carter bring Hillary and Barack together in a conference room with a whiteboard - Bill Clinton and Deval Patrick are already there to assist with the following task:

Come up with ticket that will unify the party, one that they can both endorse, one that includes neither Hillary or Barack.

They argue, they debate, they trade horses and make deals, etc. Both Gore and Carter cajole and persuade them to do this for the good of the Democratic party and ensure a win, a win with the largest coattails possible.

Let's suppose they succeed.

They all emerge and announce the ticket, recommend the delegates vote for it, and vow to campaign for it.

Would you trust your candidate to have gotten you a good deal and vote for a brokered ticket?
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
1. Let's consider a way to not piss off 10% (or more) of our party.
I'd like to see a unity ticket.

The current situation is basically Karl Rove's wet dream.

He and his minions have mapped out six ways to sunday how to destroy either of the current candidates.

He may not succeed, but why make his job easy?

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RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
2. A brokered convention would be a disaster for our party...
Edited on Sun Apr-06-08 10:38 AM by RiverStone
The SuperD's will finally get off their ass and endorse (enough) to end this dance no later then after the last primary in June or in early May if Obama does well in PA and NC. They WILL NOT go against the pledged delegates. Trust me - a little bird said so.

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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. So you won't answer?
What did you pick in this poll?
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RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Nothing - I can't fathom it happening..n/t
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. So - You can't deal with hypotheticals?
So if it's not going to happen then what's the harm of answering?
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RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. The SuperD's are not that stupid --- see #8.
Edited on Sun Apr-06-08 11:04 AM by RiverStone
I'd use bandwidth to offer conjecture if even it was an implausible possibility, IMO - there is no fucking way it will ever happen. Party leaders do not want to self destruct.


peace~:)
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Why a disaster?
You say disaster - how about why?
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RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. It would disenfranchise and alienate Dem voters for a generation...
Edited on Sun Apr-06-08 10:53 AM by RiverStone
Imagine being told by a few in the party elite that ALL your hard work - all the many hours, resources, and time put in at the grass roots level, and most importantly your VOTE was abandoned because a handful of party bosses decided that their way was better for the people.

If the will of the popular vote and pledged delegates is abandoned --- millions of young voters and new Dem voters would learn that this is what Democracy stands for after all.

So much for my vote eh? It would effect the party in a negative way for years.

There would be mass walk outs at the convention, Dems would not only lose the GE but may lose the majority on The Hill.

Al Gore will not fuck with the process - and he was my 1st choice for pres in 08.

Let the people decide! ....or else!
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. So Al Gore, Carter, Barack and the Clintons are Bosses?
Do you really think this primary process represents the will of the people.

I'm not a Hillary supporter, but I've heard mention of the fact that caucuses favored a particular segment of the population that had the time to attend them - students and activists rather than elderly and working class.

This is just one of a number of things that are badly broken with the primary system.

And when you mention "party bosses" - what are Super Delegates if nothing else?

I'd rather trust 5 people I can keep track of than hundreds of people I have to look up the names of. The sort of anonymity of the Super Delegates is precisely what you'd want to avoid.

Regarding a loss in November - that's what I see brewing right now.
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RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #12
17. If the will of the people is not honored, then we no longer...
...live in a democratic state.

Minus suspect voting machines, I do still believe that one person equals one vote. I also still believe in the primary process, though next time lets shorten it by 1/2!!!

I could not care less of Gore decided - if the nominee wins fair and square, I would support the Dem nominee. And thankfully, all indications are it will be Obama.

I'm off to play - have a good day. :)
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. Why do I think you'd sing a different tune?
If the current situation didn't favor your choice.

In the future I'd like you to recall your response when things get declared by the "people", because if it's not to your liking you'll have no right to complain.

Oh well.

A few more responses like yours and I'll feel free to ignore politics.
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #8
16. I have my suspicions about how this poll will go.
And you're not really defying them.

Not so much with how the votes come down, but the motivations behind the reasoning.
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #8
21. How about my vote?
I didn't get a chance to vote for who I thought would do the best job - what makes NH and those other early states so special. Even when my preferred candidate placed well the MSM gave him less coverage.

What am I to think of a party that won't fix that?

What am I to think of a candidate that results from that?

Do you expect me to lift a finger for that candidate?

Do you expect me to like it?

So is grudging consent something we need more of, or less of?
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
6. None of those figures are true - 20% and 30% respectively won't defect.
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. This is what I've read in recent polling.
Edited on Sun Apr-06-08 10:53 AM by mrbluto
If you have a better source please point me to it.

I have to say - ask yourself honestly whether you'd vote for the candidate you didn't favor.

Then how many people are more unreasonable than you.

Then how hard you'd work for the candidate you didn't favor.

Now apply that to the other side.

I'm actually thoroughly disenchanted with the both of them.

Only the prospect of more SCOTUS appointments forces me to realize I'll probably vote for either.

But I won't be too happy.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. What? You have one poll in April?
How is that indicative of what will happen in November?

In 2000, many of McCain supporters said the same thing, in similar numbers. As many as 25-30% said they wouldn't vote for GW Bush. Yet in November they came along and they formed the coalition needed for GW Bush to win the presidency.

I expect the same with us.
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. That we'll knuckle like Republicans?
Look it's dicey right now - we should be far ahead with Mr. 28% hung around the neck of McCaine, but no - he could win at this rate. Generic Democrat is 10-15% of either H or O.

It's actually kind of depressing you want to rely on the lack of will amongst your fellow democrats.

If you think about it it's just the sort of dynamic that got us into Iraq. And has kept us there.
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #9
22. You're right - it could get worse.
Look at the attitudes around here.

Do we have a recipe for unity cooking here?
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LWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
11. Other:
Take the term "trust" out of the equation. It doesn't go hand in hand with "politics" and "politicians."

I would happily vote for a brokered ticket that did not include HRC or Obama, regardless of whether or not they "endorsed" it.

Partly because I don't think either of them can unify the party and win the GE.

Partly because I don't see how the process would not end up with a candidate much better than either of them.
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crankychatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
15. The people are already speaking - there is NO going back
live with it
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RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. exactly! ...n/t
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mrbluto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-06-08 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. Like we live with the Iraq war?
Edited on Sun Apr-06-08 11:38 AM by mrbluto
Gotta love what appears to be the first club you reach for when you believe you're in the majority:

"Live with it"

Lovely - it's a wonder we're so unified as it is. Is that the way we're gonna play it for the next four years?

"I have something to say"

"Do you have 50.000001% a plurality of the vote behind you?"

"Um...no. But I'm in your political party"

"I do have 50+ percent a plurality of the vote behind my president - get your own. Live with it"

"Gee maybe I need my own party"



"Live with it"

Why do I worry when I am the recipient of such wisdom?
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