I'll eat my Obama yard sign if Clinton doesn't win PA big.

I have a dreaded, sneaking suspicion that Hillary WILL win PA, big - like by
12-15 points.

Pennsylvania is a MUST win for her just like New Hampshire was a MUST win
for her. And, we know all about NH - she mysteriously found 31k unpolled voters
(unknown to 5 leading pollsters, to Obama's internals, and to Hillary internals)
who simultaneously lied to the exit pollsters. (MSNBC exits did not have them either).

Although in NH ALL pollsters had Obama winning - in PA, there's some disparity.
Rasmussen - Clinton +3
Survey USA - Clinton +18
PPP - Clinton +3
ARG - tied
SV - Clinton +5

Be sure to sprinkle liberally with seasonings.

LOL

NGU.

I will rejoice at a single digit Clinton win in PA and consider that mission accomplished for team Obama.

I think a double digit Clinton win in PA is still likely, which is sad for me because it means the race won't be over.

for hilary..what's that all about?

PITTSBURGH -- In a makeshift auditorium on the banks of the Monongahela River, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton assembled her team of Pennsylvania power brokers. They sat in the front row behind a velvet rope, dressed in dark suits and waving at the crowd. There was the Pennsylvania governor, the county commissioner, a handful of major chief executives . . . and a kid they called Luke.

About 300 people filed into the auditorium to hear Clinton's speech on the economy, and Luke walked onstage to introduce her. He had a boyish face and spiky brown hair, and he stuffed his hands into the pockets of a too-big suit. He spoke hurriedly while pacing, persevering through the sort of nervousness one might expect from a college student, or a campaign volunteer, or an enamored Clinton supporter. Then he introduced himself.

"I'm Luke Ravenstahl," he said, "the mayor of Pittsburgh."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/08/AR2008040802975.html

To make any difference with delegates, Clinton needs to win more than 60% of the votes.

Now, I suspect it's too much to hope for.

She needs a 20%-30% win (closer to 30%) to even make a dent in the Obama Pledged delegate lead.

I want to see th sign feast ! :rofl:

I suggest going outside tonight and eating just a nibble. ;)

:evilgrin:

I think you're onto something but I'm too dense to infer it accurately

hmmm?

...

Like in NH, where bad chain of custody (where we couldn't compare to our hand counts), suspiciously flipped votes on the machines, and political apparatus favoring Clinton, we cannot win. I'm hopeful we have enough of a solid contain of her lead to meet expectations.

Debate needs to reveal the Clinton hypocrisy (lie?) on Colombia, wink-wink on Canada trade, and more.

"I'm hopeful we have enough of a solid contain of her lead to meet expectations."

It's almost like the precedent has been set - no one believes the polls anymore. This is
really bad. There are no benchmarks anymore to measure against. Instead of the pollsters, after NH, saying, shit the results can not be right - they squirmed and contorted (i.e. Zogby) to explain away the errors in their polls. Just how bad does it have to get to have them say, "no way" to an election?

Obama led in all polls in NH. And, as long as I live, I will never believe
that the results were on the up and up. Just like FL 04. Kerry was ahead
by 2 going into the election and DipShit "won" by 4. That was a 6 point
swing overnight PLUS exits showed anyone who made up their mind in the
2 weeks prior to the election went more toward Kerry. So, you have
to say where did the freakin votes come from. And, I say it for our
side too - in NH.

This is my biggest dissappointment with the dem congress so far - they have
done nothing to insure we have fair elections. When they sent that survey
of what we wanted them to concentrate - voting wasn't even on the list.

And for every loophole we fix on voting - people will come up with other
crooked ways.

sautee it, add some salt and pepper to taste and it'll be fine-anything tastes good with galic and olive oil

now - It would be easier to get cardboard down.

:hi:

The closing of most of the polls we're seeing now is standard proceedure we've seen it before. The SUSA poll is verification of the fact.

April 22 will be a big night for Clinton, likely her last (KY doesn't count! ;) )

David

There's been some really serious and exhaustive analysis of this, and when I read it 4 weeks ago, it pretty much put the kabash on me hoping for a win in PA.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=388x3475

Just saying...

David

Lehigh Valley, Southeast could help Obama win
By G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young
March 25, 2008

David Plouffe, campaign manager for Barack Obama, recently called the Hillary Clinton campaign ''the prohibitive favorite'' in the April 22 Pennsylvania Primary. ''We'll try and get as many votes and delegates as we can,'' he said, ''but our campaign will not be defined by Pennsylvania.''

Translation: The Obama campaign believes Pennsylvania belongs to Clinton, and they aren't going to seriously contest it. They may want to rethink that hasty conclusion. Doing so may determine the remaining course of the nomination battle.

Clinton's advantages in Pennsylvania are substantial. Many of the state's demographics (seniors, Catholics, working class, conservatives and ethnics) fit well into the coalition she has pasted together in earlier states. Moreover, Clinton has personal ties and family roots in the state that will reinforce her favorable political fundamentals.

Nevertheless, a strong case can be made for the scenario in which Obama wins the state outright or at least holds down her margins so that a nominal win for her will be perceived as a virtual loss.

Ironically Obama's keys to victory were first fashioned by electoral locksmith and current Gov. Ed Rendell, chief Clinton's chief surrogate in Pennsylvania, during his own 2002 primary fight for the governorship. That 2002 gubernatorial primary with then state Auditor General Bob Casey presents a blueprint for Obama to run against Clinton.

The 2002 gubernatorial slugfest pitted the son and heir apparent of the former Gov. Casey against the liberal, urban, upstart Rendell. Casey (Clinton) was the prohibitive favorite with deep roots in state politics, a political brand name second to none in Pennsylvania with widespread party establishment support. Rendell (Obama) was a politician of uncertain outline to a majority of voters, a brash upstart from a city many Pennsylvanians regarded as the citadel of sin and corruption.

Contrary to expectations, Rendell won impressively, beating Casey by some 150,000 votes. If Obama is going to beat Clinton in Pennsylvania, he must follow closely the three keys of the Rendell's 2002 electoral roadmap:

1. Massive concentration of effort: Pennsylvania has 67 counties, and Rendell managed to lose 57 of them. But the counties he won were the big counties, and he won them big. Key was the impressive percentages he recorded in Philadelphia and the four suburban counties. He rolled up 75 percent in Philadelphia and more than 80 percent in the suburbs. Rendell ended with 300,000 votes in the Southeast, twice his statewide margin.

2. Iron control of the swing vote: Rendell topped off Philly and the suburbs by winning the Lehigh Valley and much of the southcentral part of the state, capturing 60 percent or more in many of those counties. Rendell's regional dominance in eastern Pennsylvania was critical. Nine of the 10 counties he won were east of the Susquehanna.

3. Managed statewide turnout: Finally Rendell also was able to turnout a higher percentage of Democratic voters in the Southeast than voted in the Southwest. This was accomplished in part by increasing Democratic registration, including luring some Republicans across party lines, but mostly by exciting the voters in the Philadelphia TV market that overwhelmingly favored his candidacy.

Measured against Rendell's 2002 template, Obama's chances aren't unpromising. He is positioned to emulate Rendell to a greater extent than is generally recognized. Essentially he must win the same 10 counties Rendell won in 2002, while reducing Clinton's margins in her strongholds. Currently he leads in Philly and will likely win there decisively, making the suburbs a major battleground. The Democratic voters there largely mirror the upscale, affluent voters Obama has been attracting nationally: They are the most liberal in the state, strongly oppose the Iraq War, with a low regard for President Bush. For insurance Obama needs to join the Philadelphia suburbs to the two pivotal swing areas, the Lehigh Valley and Southcentral, where the Democrats are moderate to liberal and where he currently polls well against Sen. Clinton. Beyond this, managing turnout will be crucial for him.

Rendell in 2002 was able to turnout a higher percentage of Democratic voters in the Southeast than voted in the Southwest. This is central to any Obama victory. He must do the same. Here enthusiasm and Obama volunteers could make a big difference. The Obama campaign has already begun a major voter registration drive to add Democrats to the roles. The current Democratic pickup is 65,000, most of whom will be Obama voters.

The stakes in Pennsylvania are high for both candidates -- but perhaps highest for Obama. A Pennsylvania victory virtually assures him the nomination. It also would help inoculate him against an unfavorable resolution to the sputtering messes in Michigan and Florida. And a Pennsylvania victory gives the lie to the argument Obama can't win in an Electoral College battleground state.

Few people in 2002 thought Rendell could lose half the state and more than 85 percent of all counties, run against a political icon, and still win. Few think Obama can do it. But many otherwise astute politicians in 2002 ended up scrubbing abundant amounts of Pennsylvania egg off their faces when Rendell won. It could happen again.

Terry Madonna, Ph.D., is professor of public affairs at Franklin and Marshall College. Michael Young, Ph.D., is managing partner of Michael Young Strategic Research in Harrisburg.

:evilgrin:

Mighty suspicious, and yeah I think she'll "win" at least respectably in PA.

Since Obama will win PA by 2-3%, you could boil the rice paper down to a fairly mushy pudding and add some other veggies and some Soy Sauce to make it a little more digestible. Let me know...I can print an organic Obama sign using soy inks on rice paper...

:hi:

I think you need a new hobby.