Pennsylvania is going to be thrilling....Check it out...

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php


Atleast it will be close.

especially if Obama keeps it within single digits.

:headbang:
rocknation

She has to win EVERY remaining contest by 28 points AND get over 50% of the superdelegates to beat Obama...28 points will have her beating Obama by 2 delegates.

... so I wouldn't feel too comfortable if I were Obama. Especially after he put his foot in his mouth again. He may win the party's nomination, but he has made some major screw ups. Talking to terrorists in his first year, trying to play as if he did not know what Wright was saying, and now his latest comments. Hillary may have fibbed about Bosnia, and some peripheral stuff, but those are small spuds compared with Obama's fundamental flaws. She only needs victory in PA, as the delegates are not decided, and can be reshuffled according to the rules. If she loses PA, then it's over.

Swore off them on Iowa night. And it's why I post this at least once a day as a reminder to take them with a pillar of salt:

GET THEE BEYOND ME, POLLS!
UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



However the polls have nothing to do with http://www.slate.com/id/2185278">the math.

x(
rocknation

38-44%

Stated another way, if those graphs portrayed the market price of two homes I think I'd rather own the one on Obama Lane than the one on Hillary Bullyvard.


(Note: I'm neither an "Obamaite" nor "Clintonista" - I voted for Kucincich, and may again when it counts.)

If it were stock...most analyst would downgrade to "hold."

One month of campaigning and no change in Obama's support. 38-44%

In the most recent week, Obama is polling 38-43% in Pennsylvania. One month prior to that, he was polling 30-41%. That's an increase in the median of 5 percentage points.

As a former high school math teacher, I suggest you do some remedial homework. Grade: F. :shrug:

I said in the last month. You know...like 28-31 days. You know...like the time since the last contest. You know...like the time that they have been actively campaigning there.

From RCP -


Zogby 04/09 - 04/10 1,002 LV 47 43 Clinton +4.0
Temple Univ. 03/27 - 04/09 583 LV 47 41 Clinton +6.0
InsiderAdvantage 04/08 - 04/08 681 LV 48 38 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 04/07 - 04/08 1124 LV 46 43 Clinton +3.0 *** People Pooling Poodles
Rasmussen 04/07 - 04/07 695 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
SurveyUSA 04/05 - 04/07 597 LV 56 38 Clinton +18.0
ARG* 04/05 - 04/06 600 LV 45 45 Tie - Ignored because they suck and they are a partisan polling company.
Strategic Vision (R) 04/04 - 04/06 LV 47 42 Clinton +5.0 - Partisan
Quinnipiac 04/03 - 04/06 1,340 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Time 04/02 - 04/06 676 LV 49 41 Clinton +8.0
Insider Advantage 04/02 - 04/02 659 LV 45 42 Clinton +3.0
Morning Call 03/27 - 04/02 406 LV 49 38 Clinton +11.0
PPP (D) 03/31 - 04/01 1224 LV 43 45 Obama +2.0 - Ignored because they are a partisan polling company.
Rasmussen 03/31 - 03/31 730 LV 47 42 Clinton +5.0
SurveyUSA 03/29 - 03/31 588 LV 53 41 Clinton +12.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/28 - 03/31 504 LV 49 41 Clinton +8.0 -- Partisan
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1549 LV 50 41 Clinton +9.0
ARG* 03/26 - 03/27 600 LV 51 39 Clinton +12.0 - Ignored because they only poll pirates (Or Pirates in Pittsburg)
Rasmussen 03/24 - 03/24 690 LV 49 39 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/16 597 LV 56 30 Clinton +26.0 - Ignored because they are a partisan polling company.
Franklin & Marshall 03/11 - 03/16 294 LV 51 35 Clinton +16.0 - Sample size too small & who the hell are they?
Quinnipiac 03/10 - 03/16 1304 LV 53 41 Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen 03/12 - 03/12 697 LV 51 38 Clinton +13.0

Can't we all just get along?

Besides, Bill says the goalposts are now in NC...

Read one post above your masterpiece, genius.

Rather than acknowledge the clear evidence of a shift in voter opinions, you engage in obfuscation and a "shit-on-the-wall" approach. The poll-of-polls graph offered by 'Pollster' is quite clear and the component data consistent with that portrayal.

You're welcome to your delusions and have every right to disconnect from the data. They're ONLY polls, of course and we all know they're very fuzzy around the edges.

:shrug: Rock on.

I really am surprised at you today. I have always enjoyed your humor and wit.

The reality is, since March 11th, Obama has been actively campaigning in Pennsylvania. He is running ads in all the markets. He has events there almost every day.

And since then, his share of the vote is unchanged.

What about posting that fact makes it obfuscation or a "shit-on-the-wall" approach?

Timelines matter.

:shrug:

What did I say that was inaccurate? And why hasn't he moved up in the polls in one month of active campaigning?

:shrug:

why bother with your type at all
enjoy voting for mccain

Partisan polls that may (or may not) be skewed or have a vested interest in the results, have at it. I prefer independent polls.

I also chose to ignore the first PPP poll that had Clinton up by 26.

And ARG has been just awful this year.

And I didn't "disallow" these close ones...

Zogby 04/09 - 04/10 1,002 LV 47 43 Clinton +4.0
Rasmussen 04/07 - 04/07 695 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
Insider Advantage 04/02 - 04/02 659 LV 45 42 Clinton +3.0

Even though Zogby couldn't poll his way out of a paper pop-tent...

*skip*
*skip*
*skip*

Since that seems to be all that poster adds to any discussion, the posts look like this now:

*Ignored*
*Ignored*
*Ignored*

I am so glad for you!

A new poll is posted every 2-3 days, and guess what. NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?Releas...
November 8, 2007 -
Giuliani Close To Clinton In Pennsylvania Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Despite Big Primary Lead, Clinton Has Big Negatives


Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has narrowed the gap with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton among Pennsylvania voters, getting 43 percent to Sen. Clinton's 45 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 48 - 42 percent Clinton lead over Giuliani in an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. If Clinton is the Democratic candidate for President, 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters say they would support her, with 21 percent who might support her and 41 percent who say they would not vote for her under any circumstances. If Giuliani gets the Republican nod, 27 percent say they would vote for him, with 36 percent who might vote for him and 33 percent who say they won't vote for him under any circumstances.

snip...

"Sen. Hillary Clinton has had a rough couple of weeks on the campaign trail and her numbers show it, dropping slightly in Pennsylvania. But she is still the strongest candidate in the field and holds the slimmest of edges among voters that both 9/11 hero Rudolph Giuliani and War hero Sen. John McCain will have a hard time overcoming," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"This poll shows that there is a hard core of just over 40 percent who are unlikely to vote for Sen. Clinton under any circumstances, but it takes just 50 percent plus one to win the election."

snip...

* Clinton gets 45 percent to 43 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain.


snip...

Clinton is running away with the Democratic primary, leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 15 percent, up from 41 - 14 percent October 10.

snip...

Pennsylvania voters give Giuliani a 45 - 28 percent favorability rating. Clinton gets a 47 - 43 percent favorability rating.
Clinton has the Democratic nomination "locked up," 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters, including 34 percent of Democrats, say.

1 entire month of campaigning, his support is STILL 38-44%.

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

However, since they have been actively campaigning there, his support is basically unchanged.

:woohoo:

If you say so.

Care to comment on the reality that is Obama's #? Or do you want to make this about Hillary?



P.S. Sidenote - Nothing to do with this thread -

Put "Obama's" in the spell-checker. :rofl:

:hi:

she needed to win EVERY contest after WI, just to get close.. and she hasn't and she won't..

I just hope she can look herself in the mirror after President mccain is sworn in..

After this debacle, she and her husband will never again have the populatrity they worked to regain..

I hope it was all worth it to them..

:evilgrin:

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and Clinton won there, too.

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It's not about the "W" in her column. She's so far behind that she needs HUGE wins in every remaining contest. A "win" in PA by even 10 points is a loss for her.

after Obama told rural voters he doesn't need their votes.

Super delegates want candidates who can win the GE. Obama just shot himself in the foot.

...and it never seems to happen. Hell, according to the Clintons themselves, this thing was supposed to be over on Super Tuesday.

Tell ya what...let's see where the supers place their support in the next two weeks. I'll be willing to bet that Obama will continue his 2-1 advantage with gaining super endorsements.

I want the specific quote.

The only time I heard of him speaking of Rural voters was accurately explaining why the don't vote Democratic anymore. Did he say something besides the CA speech which I described?

This was over after Wisconsin.

He's giving People who think his campaign is "a bunch of fluff" a real wakeup call... I'm very happy that he keeps driving the truth home, calls out what people are really thinking and makes McCain and his running mate Hillary look like a couple of elitist brandy-sniffers.

It's looking close and getting closer. Clinton had to do something. But... this can be stopped or slowed for Obama.