North Carolina(Rasmussen): McCain 47% Obama 47%

Barack Obama has caught up with John McCain in the Tar Heel State. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that both Obama and McCain attract 47% of the North Carolina vote in an early look at the race. Three percent (3%) say they would prefer a third-party option and 3% are undecided.

A month ago, McCain led Obama by nine percentage points. The current survey was completed before Obama’s remarks about small-town voters made headlines.

McCain leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 40%. In that match-up, 6% say they would vote for a third party option while 3% are undecided. McCain held a sixteen point advantage over Clinton in March.

much more at link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

:thumbsup:

You are one of those big state elitists aren't you?

Accept it for that.

I live in a small state with 3 electoral votes who lives near PA small towns...

If we have to choose but NJ's 15 and NC's 15 Nj is the better bet because it is far more likely to ultimately vote Democratic than NC. Still we must factor in NC. We have to look at the electoral college nationally. We can't cherry pick states.

Clinton is much stronger there than Obama is, just as O is stronger in NC.

Obama is done in small town New Jersey.

There's no way in hell we lose the states that Kerry won.

The moving goal posts have come down to an argument that Obama can not win the GE since he is black. They have to cherry pick a few silly polls here and there to support this ludicrous concept.

Is Montana known for being a racial utopia? He just doesn't connect with some voters. Unfortunately, those voters constitute large segments of the electorate. He is especially weak now given his snobby attitude toward small town folks.

"He can't win the White Male Voter"

"hint hint nudge nudge know what I mean"

get it coupled with "oh look over there, see that preacher guy; that shows us that Obama is the Angry Black Guy our moms warned us about."

is out for Obama. You would be mistaken though.

I could show you a poll that has Clinton killing McSame in Arkansas. I haven't because it is pointless. You have to look at polls overall. If he leads him in several other NJ polls get back to me.

Besides the one I just showed you, you'll have to back to Feb 28th to find one.

can't win NJ but Hillary can.

Onus of proof is on you; or did you learn debating skills from YAF?

The latest Rasmussen poll has her losing by 3 and Obama losing by 1 and this poll I posted has her up by 5. Those are the most recent polls as the SurveyUSA poll was done in late February. According to electoral-vote.com, a site you have sited, it is a weak democratic state for both of them.

New Jersey will go blue no matter what. You can count on that.

This is why you don't see me claiming Clinton is up 18 in PA by cherry picking SUSA.

There may not be overwhelming evidence that he will win, but there isnt that he will lose either. And the same goes for Clinton.

that the SDs will ignore Hillarys consistent >50% negative ratings and not laugh themselves silly at the concept she should lose yet have them hand her the nomination.

in play. I always thought a Blue NC was a pipe dream.

If Barr can somehow get to 5% that would probably doom McSame.

That Obama has NC in play, that he very well could win it in the GE. Was that you? Tip of the hat to you or whomever it was who nailed it.

But, I don't know if it's what you're referencing.

...but my foggy memory seems to be pretty specific about a blow-out for Obama in the primary, and NC in play for the GE. Sometimes my brain hurts from info over-load.

Regardless, you deserve a :thumbsup:

I probably said Edwards would have a shot in NC earlier when he was in the race.

This was just a week or so ago and they predicted Obama putting NC in play for the GE. Maybe that person will show up on this thread--she or he deserves some recognition.

I wonder if North Carolina will go our way. That is pretty impressive. I would have never expected North Carolina to be a swing state...

This is why I turned my support to Obama, after Edwards' poor show in Nevada. He has the cross-over appeal, the new voter appeal.

He makes blue states.

Obama does much better than Clinton in some red states (Montana, NC, Alaska) but unfortunately his worst states are the most crucial.

could fly out of my rectum all purtied up with lipstick.

These are facts.

Those are polls.

Huge difference and they can change.

Facts are stubborn things jackson. That's why you can't use them.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election

Clinton is up by 4. Yes, facts are stubborn things. :)

They still list him down 44-43 when the new numbers have him up 8. Adding the new numbers puts him ahead.

Right now the real argument against him as far as swing states go is about Florida and Ohio. Let's see what his small town comment does, though, especially in PA since that was who he aimed it at, although the same reasoning applies nationally...

Obama vs. McSame in PA

This is not a pretty picture. He is losing in six of the last 8 polls, and 8 of the last 11. Note that he once led McSame by a lot. That is what a "new" candidate in a change year should be doing...

RCP Average 03/05 - 03/31 - 43.8 42.3 11.3 McCain +1.5

Strategic Vision (R) 03/28 - 03/31 1200 LV 47 42 11 McCain +5.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 3484 RV 39 43 11 Obama +4.0
Rasmussen 03/10 - 03/10 500 LV 44 43 13 McCain +1.0
Susquehanna 03/05 - 03/10 700 RV 45 41 10 McCain +4.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/07 - 03/09 1,200 LV 47 44 9 McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 608 RV 47 42 10 McCain +5.0
Quinnipiac 02/21 - 02/25 1872 RV 40 42 12 Obama +2.0
Franklin & Marshall 02/13 - 02/18 640 RV 44 43 13 McCain +1.0
Morning Call 02/09 - 02/17 588 RV 42 39 15 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen 02/14 - 02/14 500 LV 39 49 12 Obama +10.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 1419 LV 41 42 11 Obama +1.0
Quinnipiac 10/01 - 10/08 878 RV 41 45 8 Obama +4.0
Keystone Poll 08/24 - 09/02 232 RV 42 47 11 Obama +5.0
Quinnipiac 08/14 - 08/20 1160 RV 40 43 11 Obama +3.0
Keystone Poll 05/29 - 06/07 RV 43 37 20 McCain +6.0
Morning Call 05/15 - 05/21 416 RV 39 36 23 McCain +3.0
Keystone Poll 02/19 - 02/25 540 RV 43 37 20 McCain +6.0

Clinton leads in three of the last four (I presume four of five since she surely leads in the Rassmussen if Obama leads) and five of the last seven.

Things change. For better or worse. So lets quit using GE polls when the GOP have a nominee and the Dems are hating on each other.

Hes competitive in states like NC, MT, AK, CO, IA, WI, NV, NM. He has a different path to the nomination that doesnt rely on the usual swing states.

Those states account for 57 electoral votes, 15 of which come from North Carolina. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan alone account for 85 electoral votes. Even if he managed to sweep all eight of the states you listed that would barely make up for losing Florida and Pennsylvania, not even getting to Ohio and Michigan. If he loses North Carolina, which every poll except for this one show, the Obama gambit completely fails.

WI, NV, IA, NM are traditional swing states. Colorado was semi-competitive in 2004 and is expected to become a swing state as the Latino population rises. The only states he potentially can bring in that are red, in that list, are NC, MT, and AK and NC is based on one poll.

I would like to see more info on Colorado. I am not sold on it being in play yet.

THE DIFFERENCE IS ENORMOUS RIGHT

Especially since O as the "new" candidate should be the one doing 8 points better...he could be trailing in Ohio by 15 points by the convention..

Like a typical Obamite you have to cherry pick one poll that is the most pro-Obama because the truth is inconvenient.

You can use old polls all you like. Why don't you go back to last summer when Clinton was up 20 if that makes you feel good.

Obama vs. McSame

RCP Average 03/14 - 04/08 - 47.0 41.8 9.5 McCain +5.2

Rasmussen 04/08 - 04/08 500 LV 47 40 13 McCain +7.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1238 RV 42 43 8 Obama +1.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/17 629 LV 49 41 10 McCain +8.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 - 03/16 532 RV 50 43 7 McCain +7.0
Rasmussen 03/13 - 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 629 RV 40 50 10 Obama +10.0
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 02/21 - 02/24 970 RV 47 48 4 Obama +1.0
Rasmussen 02/17 - 02/17 500 LV 42 41 17 McCain +1.0
SurveyUSA 02/15 - 02/17 542 RV 44 47 9 Obama +3.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 1748 LV 42 40 10 McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA 01/04 - 01/6 535 RV 50 43 7 McCain +7.0
SurveyUSA 12/13 - 12/15 539 RV 47 38 15 McCain +9.0
SurveyUSA 11/09 - 11/11 533 RV 52 37 11 McCain +15.0
Quinnipiac 10/01 - 10/08 946 RV 39 42 10 Obama +3.0
Quinnipiac 08/28 - 09/03 1430 RV 42 41 10 McCain +1.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ohio.html

Clinton vs. McSame

RCP Average 03/14 - 04/08 - 43.5 46.3 9.0 Clinton +2.8

Rasmussen 04/08 - 04/08 500 LV 47 42 11 McCain +5.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1238 RV 39 48 8 Clinton +9.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/17 629 LV 44 45 11 Clinton +1.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 - 03/16 532 RV 44 50 6 Clinton +6.0
Rasmussen 03/13 - 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 632 RV 40 50 10 Clinton +10.0
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 02/21 - 02/24 970 RV 51 47 1 McCain +4.0
Rasmussen 02/17 - 02/17 500 LV 46 43 11 McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA 02/15 - 02/17 542 RV 42 52 6 Clinton +10.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 1748 LV 44 43 8 McCain +1.0
SurveyUSA 01/04 - 01/06 535 48 46 6 McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA 12/13 - 12/15 539 RV 45 45 10 Tie
Quinnipiac 11/26 - 12/03 1,178 RV 42 44 14 Clinton +2.0
SurveyUSA 11/09 - 11/11 533 RV 47 46 7 McCain +1.0
Quinnipiac 11/06 - 11/11 1231 RV 46 42 7 McCain +4.0
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/14 509 RV 46 46 7 Tie
Quinnipiac 10/01 - 10/08 946 RV 38 48 8 Clinton +10.0
Quinnipiac 08/28 - 09/03 1430 RV 41 46 8 Clinton +5.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_clinton-399.html#polls

What part of my last post did you miss?


And before that, the lead has gone back and forth, just like it has between Clinton and McCain.

RCP Average 03/14 - 04/08 - 47.0 41.8 9.5 McCain +5.2
Rasmussen 04/08 - 04/08 500 LV 47 40 13 McCain +7.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1238 RV 42 43 8 Obama +1.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/17 629 LV 49 41 10 McCain +8.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 - 03/16 532 RV 50 43 7 McCain +7.0
Rasmussen 03/13 - 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 629 RV 40 50 10 Obama +10.0
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 02/21 - 02/24 970 RV 47 48 4 Obama +1.0
Rasmussen 02/17 - 02/17 500 LV 42 41 17 McCain +1.0
SurveyUSA 02/15 - 02/17 542 RV 44 47 9 Obama +3.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 1748 LV 42 40 10 McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA 01/04 - 01/6 535 RV 50 43 7 McCain +7.0
SurveyUSA 12/13 - 12/15 539 RV 47 38 15 McCain +9.0
SurveyUSA 11/09 - 11/11 533 RV 52 37 11 McCain +15.0
Quinnipiac 10/01 - 10/08 946 RV 39 42 10 Obama +3.0
Quinnipiac 08/28 - 09/03 1430 RV 42 41 10 McCain +1.0

Congrats. Clinton wins the battle for OH in 2007.

his real chances of winning there in November, are slim to none. NC always ends up coming home to the Repukes in the presidential election in November. This year won't be any different.