Is Clinton REALLY 20 points up in PA as per ARG?

To veteran poll watchers this is a really strange result to change 20 points in one week. WSJ's "Numbers Guy" addresses the issue.

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/is-clintons-pennsylvania-lead-really-20-points-319/

(and I'm not saying you're "frazzled", but many are)

Polls are of almost no use in the short term...and a SINGLE poll is even less reliable.

We need more than 1 or 2 polls showing a big change in numbers before we consider it a "move".

Funny how no one questions Obama's huge lead in North Carolina. I wonder why that is...


*ponders*

you can see the link to pollsters examination of the ARG results downthread. They are in a word sceptical.

I don't know who they hell they talk to.

:applause: :applause: :applause:

There is a long technical examination of the question by professional pollster here

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/comparing_pollsters_in_pennsyl.php

Third, the black trend line continues to show Clinton's margin declining because the regression model that generates it gives greater weight to the larger number of polls conducted earlier showing a decline. The new ARG survey is so different from other polls that, with a more sensitive estimator, the line would move quite a bit in its direction, producing an upward spike. Our more conservative estimator is pulled up by ARG, but it is designed to resist the influence of single poll that falls far from the rest. If other new polls are consistent with ARG, then the trend estimator will move sharply in that direction. But if new results look like other recent polls, then the trend will remain about where it is.

All of which is a long way of saying that for the moment, your judgement about where the trend is headed depends on what you make of the ARG poll.

Fourth, the Pennsylvania surveys from PPP have been something of an outlier in terms of their sheer volatility. They produced the biggest Clinton margin (by far) in mid-March (in a survey conducted entirely on March 16, on the eve of Obama's speech on race) and the one result showing a slight Obama lead on April 1. Again, only time will tell whether ARG has produced a similarly outlying trend or is the harbinger of comparable results yet to come.

Beyond that, we can only stare at the chart and speculate. So far at least, the two national tracking surveys are not showing evidence in a significant shift since Friday in Obama-Clinton vote preference. As Josh Marshall noted, however, "coverage of this story in Pennsylvania has likely been as intense as anywhere in the country." So we will have to wait and see what other Pennsylvania polls have to say.

On that note: Quinnipiac University has distributed a media advisory that will be releasing their latest survey tomorrow morning. So stay tuned.

Obama's internal polls: there is a very high undecided factor there.