Pollkatz trend lines predict 15-18% Kerry landslide in November

Look at this chart:

I have yet to meet anyone who has been willing to speak in favor of Bush. The other day, the radio was on at work and some fellows were there listening. Their comments? Bush is against the working man. He's not supporting the troops (our local Guard unit has just returned from Iraq and I guess the soldiers have been talking to their neighbors). He's out of office in November. All this said without any comments from me. I have a bumper sticker taped to my car window which says, "Save Our Country-Vote Democratic in 2004", and the only comments I've gotten are "I agree with you". Why bring this up? Because I live in the most conservative part of Arkansas, the area where Asa Hutchinson came from. If this is what I'm hearing here, Bush is toast.

no one wins by that much.

I'd be thrilled if he won by 5-7 percent, which should be enough to produce an electoral landslide.

I'll put it to ya this way - If someone wins the election by 15 points it ain't gonna be Kerry. thatr kind of spread would mean a terrorist attack in the USA followed by a "rally around the prez" reaction.

We need so much momentum going into the election that nobody will
believe it when Bushco/Diebold tries to steal it.

Landslide is our safety margin.

There have been 60-40 elections in US history (ie Johnson-Goldwater) but they're not likely. The map for this election should look pretty much like the last one, but with (hopefully) one or two extra states colored blue.

Democratic candidates have a history of pissing away big leads. Carter was up 30 points over Ford; he even led Reagan until Labor Day; Dukakis blew a 17 point lead; Clinton had a double digit lead in 1992 and it eroded. In 1996 Clinton led by 15-20, but won by only 8. I just can't be that optimistic.

than is manifested on election day. Though this obviously isn't an iron rule- in 2000 most polls gave Bush a slight but persistent lead over Gore going into Nov.

also, with F-9/11 movie, Clinton book, the 9/11 commission report, possible indictments in the Valerie Plame fiasco all coming - we'll be getting lots of free media.

Kerry is a VERY strong closer in campaigns. He is not stupid. I'm sure he has ideas about how the Bush campaign is going to come at him. I don't want to say what'll happen, but I think Kerry is capable of that type of margin of victory.

Doesn't anybody know about statistics in this place? You can't predict future poll results by drawing trend lines. If you could, it would mean that its impossible for a candidate's poll numbers to change direction, which we all know it false. Right? RIGHT?

Seriously, I know plenty of Bush haters and lovers. The rest of the public I come in contact with is rather apathetic. So unless something significant happens between now and November....it'll be another squeaker.

As more and more people come over to Kerry's side, the pool of people left to convince grows smaller, meaning that the rate at which Kerry's support grows should become smaller and smaller. If you're going to draw any line, it should be a curve that is convex down.

I think the trend could be judged to be approximately linear with time over the small range over which the line is drawn (i.e. -15% to +15%). Remember the range of possible values is actually -100% to +100%.

Really. Scouts honor.

"No to Bush" doesn't necessarily mean "Yes to Kerry".....
Unfortunately.