Zogby 4/20: PA race a statistical dead heat

Clinton 46%
Obama 43%


Released: April 20, 2008

Newsmax/Zogby Poll: The Pennsylvania Race Remains Tight

UTICA, New York—New York's Hillary Clinton remains barely ahead of rival Barack Obama of Illinois leading up to Tuesday's presidential primary in Pennsylvania, a new Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

Her advantage is a statistically insignificant three points, 46% to 43%, over Obama, as support in the race ebbs and flows within a tight margin—she led by five points yesterday. The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 18-19, 2008, included 11% who were either undecided or supported someone else.

The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 607 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The daily tracking in the Keystone state will continue through Monday evening, with the final release issued early on Election Day.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

Dalai Lama on Earth Day at Colgate University in Hamilton, New York and come back all Peaced OUT..

"He concludes each day with further prayer before retiring. In explaining his greatest sources of inspiration, he often cites a favorite verse, found in the writings of the renowned eighth century Buddhist saint Shantideva:"


For as long as space endures
And for as long as living beings remain,
Until then may I too abide
To dispel the misery of the world.

Good Luck to on Earth Day :)

I'm waiting for the new SUSA poll tomorrow.

that news release says Newsmax! :rofl:

It is from the FUTURE.

I hope I didn't change the timeline by posting the release today.

What did you do?!?

We are screwn!

They are going to turn the White House into a Casino!

Lovely.:eyes:

But today's results are out this early in the day.

and hussle out the good news for Hillary to help her create 'Media Momentum'.

But will the people of PA buy the hype?

In this day in age of nearly instant news information, this polling information is actually old. These polling numbers are based on Saturday. And was officially reported today. (Sunday)\


It's confusing because today's numbers are out from polling conducted Sunday. And today Clinton had a "good day" polling 53-38 over Obama. Today's information will be "officially" reported tomorrow. (Monday)


Here are the updated Zogby numbers...

Saturday..... Obama 46 Clinton 43

Sunday...... Obama 38 Clinton 53

Total...... Obama 42 Clinton 48

for Obama.

It doesn't show individual days. If there really was an 18 point one day swing (!), I think that would throw the entire poll results into question.

Zogby polls are rolling two day averages. For instance Monday's poll is a combination of polling done on Saturday and Sunday. Tuesday's poll will be a combination of individual polling done on Sunday and Monday. Each day Zogby adds one day and the oldest day is "kicked out" This is why Zogby has a new poll number each day.

What I posted in my earlier reply was the single day polling number.

According to Zogby on Saturday (ONLY) Obama led Clinton 46-43. On Sunday (ONLY) Clinton led Obama 53-38. When you ADD THE TWO NUMBERS TOGETHER, you get Clinton 48-42. This will be the polling number Zogby will release Monday. (or late Sunday night.)

Clinton led in the overall poll on 4/19... 46-43. This is a Poll based on a two day average. On Friday (ONLY)Clinton led Obama 49-40. On Saturday (ONLY) Obama led Clinton 46-43. This is why the Zogby Poll you are referring to reported Clinton up 46-43.(A combination of the two days)

I'm sorry if this was confusing. With the highly anticipated primary coming up, numbers can sometimes come in too fast!

Here are Zogby's numbers the last 3 days. Each day is an individual poll for that day only.

Friday C-49 O-40
Saturday C-43 O-46
Sunday C-53 O-38
Monday TBA

numbers though. The PDF didn't have the one day numbers. While I realize that your Saturday and Sunday results would average out to Zogby's 4/19-20 results, there are a lot of other combinations that would do the trick as well (e.g., C-47 O-43, C-49 O-41).

Like I said before, if the poll really had an 18 point swing between Saturday and Sunday, that doesn't say much for the credibility of the poll.

per Zogby.

On Saturday Zogby had Obama leading Clinton 46-43.

On Sunday he had Clinton leading Obama 53-38.


There were no major news stories Saturday night to justify an 18 point difference. Heck, even the debate Wednesday night didn't do that.

I think the 18 point swing may be due to when the polling was done.

Sunday morning/afternoon probably isn't the best time to conduct a poll. This is why he always adds two days together to get his final number. And it's why Monday's number will be important. If Monday is close to Saturday then Sunday's number was an outlier. If Monday matches Sunday, then according to Mr. Zogby, undecided voters are breaking for Clinton.

Are they on Zogby's site? I do see the 53-38 info in Zogby's comment part of the PDF, but that comment is so ambiguous I'm not sure what to make of it.

k /r

i say it is a minimum of an 8 pt win for hillary

So ... Zogby polls are contradicting Zogby polls? :shrug:

these polls and just wait and see what the results are on Tuesday.

so I am going to be rich