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Hillary's new "Magic Number": 68% of the vote in ALL remaining contests

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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:34 AM
Original message
Hillary's new "Magic Number": 68% of the vote in ALL remaining contests
Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 08:37 AM by rocknation
From Slate's Delegate Calculator (April 23, 2008, 1:03 AM ET):

Coming into today, the odds that Clinton would catch Obama in pledged delegates were very small. Now they're zero. Before Pennsylvania, Clinton needed to win each remaining primary with 65 percent of the vote to close the gap. Even though she won Pennsylvania, that figure is now just over 68 percent. Furthermore...(a)ssuming (Obama) nets at least 20 more of (North Carolina's) 115 delegates, Clinton needs 80 percent of the vote in each of the other eight remaining primaries to catch up...

:headbang:
rocknation
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NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:35 AM
Response to Original message
1. Which means the race is over, the longer she stays the more
she hurts the party
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Zuiderelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. How the hell does it "hurt the party" anyway? I keep seeing that and it makes no sense.
Don't bother answering, since it's rhetorical. It doesn't hurt the party a bit.
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shadowknows69 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:39 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. It limits our time for GE strategy and fundraising
It absoulutely hurts the party.
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #4
14. correct. Dems are spending millions fighting Dems
we need to spend that fighting McCain.
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NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. I didn't think you wanted the answer, your claim is just another sniper momement
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Zuiderelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. Actually, no, your claim was the sniper fire.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:41 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. Yes, it does. People get entrenched in a position
and it's harder to get them to work together.
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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:09 AM
Response to Reply #2
20. Her dirty campaigning makes both candidates unelectable.
She tarnishes him for the GE, and pisses off his supporters so even if she gets the nomination, they will stay home.
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Zuiderelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. Neither is more guilty of dirty campaigning than the other.
Tarnishing him? And you think he wouldn't be tarnished MORE if he were the only one left and the RW started in on him? Yeah, ok.
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electropop Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #23
31. The RW doesn't need Hillary's help.
And if Obama was a dirty campaigner, he would have pointed out by now that Rev. Wright is also a spiritual adviser to Hillary. He would also have used a lot of other ammo against her, but he has held back.
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Zuiderelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #31
32. The RW doesn't need our help either.
Tearing down either one of them doesn't help us.
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mbperrin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:13 AM
Response to Reply #2
22. Absolutely, it does not hurt the party!
Record turnouts, voter participation to the end, these are GOOD things! Now for some reason, there are those who feel that too much voting and too much democracy are just bad things! We need to anoint a candidate with power-brokers now and stop all this dastardly voting in primaries and caucuses.

One question: If Obama really cannot lose, why doesn't he just start against McCain now and not participate in any more caucuses or primaries? If he CANNOT lose, that would be rational behavior. So, followers of Obama, why doesn't he do that?
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Zuiderelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:18 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. Good points. What a horrid thing it is that so many more people registered to vote
before the primaries. This saves us a lot of time and money as we near the GE since these people are already registered. But no, it hurts the party that we have record numbers of democrats registered and prepared to vote. Is anyone really stupid enough to believe that these people will just stay home in November if one or the other candidate is not chosen as our nominee? I guess some people are.

And yeah, he should just start campaigning against McCain since he's such a shoe-in.
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LTR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #22
29. I see it as beneficial
It keeps both Obama and Clinton in the news cycle. And Obama's skeletons are getting out and being diffused early, meaning McCain will have little to work with.

Meanwhile, McCain is getting virtually no exposure right now.
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
3. Penssylvania was her big chance -- big population, many delegates.
She came up short.
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SoonerPride Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
5. I posted this last night: she's further behind today than before Penn.
Math is a harsh mistress.
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
7. yes, but you wouldn't know that from watching the news.
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NC_Nurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:41 AM
Response to Original message
8. Oh, yeah. I knew it, but thanks for reminding us. It's over.
:toast: :party:
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:47 AM
Response to Original message
11. Chuck Todd: "It is now impossible for Obama to lose his lead."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x122816
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. I missed that. Are you listening SDs?
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FunkyLeprechaun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:51 AM
Response to Original message
13. Not even 68%
Obama still is ahead in Delegates. He still beats her 1,619 to 1,615 even if she gets 68% of all the remaining contests. It's more like 69-70% (69% in Guam to Oregon and 68% in the remaining 3 contests for her to pull ahead by 2 delegates and 70% in all the primaries but the last 2 (dead heat) for her to pull ahead by 1 delegate).

It's impossible for her to pull these kind of numbers. She's done.

It's time for us to work behind Obama to beat McCain.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. But if Hillary WERE to get that close, she'd HAVE the ammunition she'd need
Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 09:30 AM by rocknation
for a legitimate argument to the superdelegates that she's more electable. With the current gap in pledged delegates and Hillary's continuing inability to close it, she knows they won't give her the time of day.

And don't think that Obama hasn't figured this out. His hitting HIS magic number of 45% in PA prevented Hillary from getting the 65% she needed AND helped burn out her campaign coffers--not bad for a "loser."

:headbang:
rocknation
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FunkyLeprechaun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:07 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. I personally believe
That if this went on for 2 more weeks, Obama would have won PA. Even one more week by the looks of it. It's an incredible job that he's done to chip away at her lead.

Not bad for a "loser" :-D.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #17
27. If Obama wins NC and gets at least 42% of IN
It WILL be over in two weeks.

:headbang:
rocknation
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FunkyLeprechaun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #27
30. Touch wood, cross fingers, rub rabbit foot
Hold 4 leaf clover.

I'm getting tired of her, it's TIME for Obama.
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Kaleva Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:18 AM
Response to Reply #16
25. soaking off
Years ago, I used to play some Avalon Hill war games where a tactic called "soaking off" could be used. One would expend a number of units to tie down the opponent and force him to use up his reserves in an effort to win the game. One could see Obama doing the same to Hillary in Pennsylvania as he could afford to 'soak off' that state but it was do or die for Hillary.
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Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:02 AM
Response to Original message
15. your math is based on faulty assumptions.
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FunkyLeprechaun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. So tell me.
If she wins 55-45 of the remaining contests (matching the PA numbers) does she overtake him in the Delegate count?

The computer says no.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:09 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. It's Slate's math
Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 09:11 AM by rocknation
Your belief that it's my math is based on a faulty assumption!

;)
rocknation
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Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. the "math" does not work because it assumes 2 things
1. That she even has to end up ahead in pledged delegates to win

2. That SD's that have already declared are static and cant change sides.



Faulty assumptions.
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FlaGranny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:24 AM
Response to Reply #21
26. Not faulty if you assume
fairness is in play. If not, well then, you might be right.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 09:41 AM
Response to Original message
28. After IN and NC Hillary will need like 85%.
If Obama wins IN and NC, it's over.
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FatDave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
33. Even if you give her FL and MI...
she still needs 67% or higher.
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