Does Clinton have to win all remaining states by at least 30% to take the lead?

IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:21 PM
Original message

Does Clinton have to win all remaining states by at least 30% to take the lead?

Maybe I don't know how to use Slate's Delegate Calculator... but it looks like Clinton now has to win the remaining states by at least 30 points (up from 20) to take the lead in pledged delegates.

Am I doing something wrong here, I even included MI and FL with Clinton by 10 in those states? :shrug:

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Alexander

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:26 PM
Response to Original message

1. Yes. It's now almost impossible for her to win the pledged delegates...

and hence the nomination.

The race is essentially over, but Clinton's campaign is dying a long, slow, drawn-out death.

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RoadRage

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. And happily taking Obama to the Grave with her....

I guess she thinks if she's gonna die, she's going out Columbine style and taking all of the Dems with her. I suppose she thinks we deserve this because we didn't nominate her as she thought we should.

Kind of sad, really.

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #1

7. not entirely true-- she just has to redefine "winning"

and she has to make the case that the supers should look at the popular vote instead of the pledged delegates... but I'm still not sure that she can take the popular vote lead without including Michigan which is up in the air.

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yourguide

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #7

15. redefining winning by losing...wow.

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #15

18. whatever it takes i guess.

the Clinton's ability to spin is simply amazing.

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BlooInBloo

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #18

21. If only Nietszche was writing today.

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PetraPooh

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Wed Apr-23-08 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #7

31. yup, just like she'll likely redefine her promises if she were to get the nom.

She is turning out the be the queen of mean spin and BS lies, traitor to the core.

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wileedog

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Wed Apr-23-08 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #1

32. I think its safe to say it is impossible

I mean what the hell has to happen in the next two weeks for her to win NC or OR by 30 points?

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tekisui

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:28 PM
Response to Original message

3. She is not going to overtake Obama in Pledged Delegates. Period.

Even she isn't saying that.

They are going after the Superdelegates, now. Both Obama and Hillary. Obama will need about 100 of the remaining 305.

Hillary will need about 220 of the remaining 305.

When Obama get 85 more Superdelegates, it's over. There will not be enough left for Hillary to reach 2025.

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XemaSab

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:28 PM
Response to Original message

4. That's about what I come up with

What's more, any election that she "only" wins by, say, 20, makes her math that much worse.

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Exilednight

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. bingo. The bigger the margins that Obama wins by means the bigger the margin she falls behind. n/t

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #5

12. and every win she has that is less than the 30ish% her math gets even worse. n/t

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XemaSab

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #5

14. I just crunched the numbers

A tie in North Carolina means she'd have to get 72% in every other state to pull even.

A tie in North Carolina and Indiana would push it towards 79%.

A tie in those plus West Virginia would make it 84%.

NC, IN, WV, and Oregon would make it 97%.

And she'd still need like, 170 superdelegates to get to 2025. :crazy:

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #14

17. YES SHE CAN!

:sarcasm:

Her only way to win at this point is to redefine the word and hope the supers buy it. Are there any reasonable projections for popular votes in the remaining states?

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #4

10. thats what i thought-- today the math is worse than before her victory yesterday. n/t

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lisa58

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:31 PM
Response to Original message

6. someone posted 32% earlier - math ain't my thing

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #6

13. yeah thats probably more accurate... its even higher if you split FL and MI 50/50. n/t

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Stop Cornyn

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:32 PM
Response to Original message

8. No, she has to get her sister to drop a house on Obama

Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 05:33 PM by Stop Cornyn

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lisa58

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #8

22. lol....

...The Wizard of Oz applies again!

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mudesi

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:33 PM
Response to Original message

9. 32% actually (nm)

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #9

25. thanks. is that including anything from FL and MI? n/t

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bhikkhu

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:35 PM
Response to Original message

11. And all with a basically empty campaign account...

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guyanakoolaid

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Wed Apr-23-08 05:48 PM
Response to Original message

16. ...

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #16

23. well said. n/t

Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 06:24 PM by IndependentDem

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BlooInBloo

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:01 PM
Response to Original message

19. That's about the long and the short of it.

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quakerboy

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:02 PM
Response to Original message

20. She needs

Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 06:06 PM by quakerboy

59.01% of all remaining delegates, pledged and super, to win this (ie reach the magic 2024). Or some serious defections from among Obama's delegates. He needs 41.26% of all remaining delegates to reach it.

Interestingly, she now would need 101.36% of the remaining pledged delegates to win. He needs 70.87% of them. So Obama is not likely to get there from the current counts purely on pledged, but it is now technically not even possible for her.

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #20

24. interesting I didn't think about that last part. n/t

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Raine

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Wed Apr-23-08 06:40 PM
Response to Original message

26. The numbers make it impossible for her

but she'll never drop out. :-(

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 07:52 PM
Response to Reply #26

27. nothing is impossible...

as long as you have HOPE!! oh, wait, wrong candidate.

Since she is not going to drop out I just wish that both campaigns clean up their act. I have a bad feeling that something big/bad is going to happen in NC and its not going to be good for Obama. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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AJH032

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Wed Apr-23-08 07:53 PM
Response to Original message

28. Pledged delegates, maybe

but this race is not determined by pledged delegates alone.

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cascadiance

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Wed Apr-23-08 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #28

29. But if superdelegates "determine" the outcome, THAT will be used against Dems in the fall...

We will be called the "Anti-Democratic Party" then, since we don't even use real democratic principles to decide our own nominee let alone other races. It will be harder for us to push reforms through to advocate for more bottom up democracy if we don't allow it in our own party.

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 08:09 PM
Response to Reply #28

30. thats fine...

but since it is pretty clear that she will not gain the lead in pledged delegates and it is a long shot that she will gain the lead in popular vote...

What do you think should determine the race? What other argument can she use to get the superdelegates to overthrow the pledged delegates and the popular vote?

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wileedog

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Wed Apr-23-08 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #30

33. Big states

Its all she has left.

And its beyond fucking moronic.

Whats worse is she is going to waste tens of millions more dollars on this bullshit, sully Obama even more on this tiny little whisp of an argument that any SD who has avoided a lobotomy should laugh at.

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #33

34. ahhh, yes those big states...

doesn't the whole electoral college thing kinda screw up that theory for her?

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wileedog

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Wed Apr-23-08 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #34

35. The whole "Primaries have nothing to do with the GE" think screws that up for her

Or does she think she will carry Texas?

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IndependentDem

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Wed Apr-23-08 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #35

36. one busted theory after another. n/t

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