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a fact is a fact Obama is electable Cllinton is not

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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:32 PM
Original message
a fact is a fact Obama is electable Cllinton is not
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/23/2417/55984/47/501352
Electability
by kos
Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 02:27:53 PM PDT
The Mountain West has huge growth potential for the Democratic Party, which is why the DNCC is in Denver this year. Colorado is leading the way and is definitely a winnable state ... with the right candidate at the top of the ticket.

Rasmussen. 4/16. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (3/17 results)

McCain (R) 43 (46)
Obama (D) 46 (46)

McCain (R) 50 (52)
Clinton (D) 36 (38)



Obama makes Colorado competitive, Clinton kills it for us. And that's not just relevant at the top of the ticket. We have a top-tier Senate race in the state, and you better believe Mark Udall is better off with Obama at the top of the ticket than having to make up a 14-point Clinton deficit. Throw in CO-04, which is already on the DCCC's target list, and once again, it's clear why having Obama at the top of the ticket is so helpful to the Democratic Party not just at the presidential level, but down below it as well.

Same goes for another Red state we can flip with the right candidate (that "right" candidate being Obama): North Carolina:

Rasmussen. 4/10. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (3/20 results)

McCain (R) 47 (42)
Obama (D) 47 (51)

McCain (R) 51 (50)
Clinton (D) 40 (34)



Clinton might make this one competitive, but it'd be tough. Obama immediately makes this a top-tier pickup opportunity in a state that McCain can ill-afford to defend. We also have a potentially hot Senate race and at least one solid House pickup opportunity (NC-08), both of which would benefit from 1) having the state be a presidential battleground, and 2) having a competitive candidate at the top of the ticket.

What about those "big states" that Clinton thinks only she can win? How about California?

Rasmussen. 4/16. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (3/12 results)

McCain (R) 43 (38)
Obama (D) 50 (53)

McCain (R) 42 (39)
Clinton (D) 47 (46)

snip
And somehow, despite the fact she runs behind Obama in the general, the supers are supposed to overturn the will of the primary electorate and spur intra-party civil war on her behalf? Is she really that narcissistic?

Apparently so.
there are more state comparison in the link, go read it worthwhile




The GOP would rather face Hillary Clinton:

The Republican Party in North Carolina said Wednesday it's launching a television ad calling Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama too extreme for the state, despite the objections of GOP presumptive nominee John McCain.

The advertisement raises the scepter of Obama's former pastor Jeremiah Wright, beginning with a photo of Obama and Wright together and a clip of Wright's contentious remarks about America.

"He's just too extreme for North Carolina," the narrator says in the 30-second spot.

McCain can complain, but it's naïve to think that this ad is being run against the wishes of McCain's strategists. If they thought Obama was the weaker candidate, they would stand aside and let him more quickly end the primary contest. Yes, regardless of who ends up the nominee, the GOP benefits from us still fighting out state-by-state primaries and caucuses (even though caucuses don't count and are in states that don't matter). But what's more important to the GOP, if they have any control over it, is getting the weaker opponent for McCain. Hence, the ads attacking Obama

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/23/175352/744/424/501984

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powergirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
1. Facts! We don't need no stinkin' facts
Didn't you get the memo? Facts don't matter! :sarcasm:
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
2. The real truth is they both probably beat McCain (but Obama beats him by more)
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
19. I agree
McCain = Four More Years... now THAT is reality.
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guyanakoolaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
3. Depends on what your definition of "fact" is...
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
4. The numbers from Pennsylvania tell a different story
Obama lost key constituencies that we need in the fall- to Hillary Clinton of all people.

And, unfortunately, I don't expect this trend among blue collar workers to to improve. Show me a plausible way for Dems win without Ohio and Pennsylvania.



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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Yeah they do, Clinton lost the cities
She is not going to win the rural in the GE if she is the nominee, that will go to McCain
She has to win the cities and the suburbs she is not, go look it up
right now she is winning like repug, rural voters vs city,
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. That doesn't mean Obama will win in the fall either
given the present trend.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
5. Too bad Obama loses in FL & OH, he's gonna need to take CO & NC just to keep pace.
Poll	     Date	Sample	   McCain (R)  Obama (D)  Und	Spread
RCP Average 03/24 - 04/13 - 45.3 42.7 9.7 McCain +2.6
SurveyUSA 04/11 - 04/13 527 RV 47 45 8 McCain +2.0
Rasmussen 04/08 - 04/08 500 LV 47 40 13 McCain +7.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1238 RV 42 43 8 Obama +1.0


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

Poll	     Date	Sample	      McCain (R)  Obama (D)  Und	Spread
RCP Average 03/15 - 04/10 - 49.7 38.0 9.7 McCain +11.7
Rasmussen 04/10 - 04/10 500 LV 53 38 9 McCain +15.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1136 RV 46 37 9 McCain +9.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/16 618 LV 50 39 11 McCain +11.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. bzzzzt.
opinion is not fact.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. look at the poll, a fact as of now Obama is more electable
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #9
20. Polls are NOT infallible either...
You can find a poll to say whatever you are trying to prove.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. just keep spining, tell me why is GOP in NC
not going after Clinton but Obama

you know they want Clinton + she won't help down ticket candidates her husband never had coat tails why would she
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. No doubt they are hoping the Clinton hate will make Republicans come out and
Actually vote, which they are generally want to do, but there are far more Democrats than Republicans... moot point.

Too many Democrats are falling for the GOP Clinton hate spin, IMHO. I'm not a Hillary supporter, but by the same token I don't support the GOP hate meme bullshit either.
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Austinitis Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
8. If Obama is so electable, then why hasn't he been elected to be the nominee yet?
Kinda seems like a screw-up to me...
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. whose closer to being the nominee Obama or Clinton?
no opinion please, I want a fact
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #10
27. Unless you can read minds or have a crystal ball...
There's no answer to that question. Clinton's chances are slim, but they are still chances at this stage of the game.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:27 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. If Clintons chances are slim then I would
gather that Obama is closer to the nom, so I guess it does have an answer after all, wouldn't you say? Unless you are saying Obama's chances are also slim and if that's what you are saying, then I have no idea what you are saying.
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joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
12. Yeah, I believe Kos, a part of the left-wing-lie machine...
...Barry is a trainwreck.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. name a lie from Kos
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Liquorice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. I agree. Kos is a big joke now. nt
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Exilednight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
14. New polls show that Hillary would actually lose NY in the GE to McCain. n/t
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #14
28. Polls are a joke
You can find a poll to "prove" anything you like if you search hard enough.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:02 PM
Response to Original message
16. RAS just released a Nevada poll: Obama within five; Hillary loses by 11
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:04 PM
Response to Original message
17. IMHO dKos is one of those blogs that should be forbidden as back up here
Blogs should be read with a grain of salt... or a brick, as the case may be.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Why, back it up
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. I can see you are new here...
Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 06:09 PM by Juniperx
On edit... at least you haven't posted much...

When posting things you tout as "fact" you are generally required, by way of requests by fellow DUers, to back up what you say with a link to something that backs up what you are saying.

What you have done here is to voice an opinion and back it up with more opinion. Kos is no more a valid source than you or I.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. again anotherone with low comprehension skills
there is a link in my Op and I have been since 2004 look at my profile

again back it up
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. I did... and edited... and I stick to what I've said...
Seems the comprehension is on the other foot. I was asking you for appropriate back up... Kos is not a good source. He's a blogger... anyone with a little cash can put up a website and blog. That doesn't make you a reliable source. Huffington Post has gone downhill too... Raw Story is about the only one left I feel comfortable believing because I know what a stickler Larisa is for the truth. Huffington is letting a lot of yahoos in lately.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. bullshit, you are just spinning
you accused me of being new and not having a link, I'm not new and I did have link, It is not my problem that you don't like my source, in addition Kos is using evidence from Polling outfits, did you go to the link?
Also Kos did not turn against Clinton until she started trying to destroy Obama with repug tactics. Before the primary's started KOS was quite hard on Obama for criticizing fellow Dem's, he is consistent. The Daily Kos main purpose is to push for democratic candidates across all 50 states not to tear them down
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. Take your hero worship elsewhere
I read your registration date as well as your post count. I also read where you say you are a teacher... couldn't prove it by your writing... just saying.

Blogs are written by people just like you and me... not a reliable source... and your post is contradictory... you say Kos has turned against Clinton, then you say "The Daily Kos main purpose is to push for democratic candidates across all 50 states not to tear them down."

There are a lot of us on DU who have been blogging about politics a lot longer than Kos... and that still doesn't make us any better, worse, or reliable than Markos.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. actually I'm not a teacher but a professor
you sound jealous
again you can't back up your argument, you fail
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. Professor? Even worse
Jealous? You have no idea who I am or what I do for a living... nor do you know what I'm all about... jealous is not something I do. I guess I can say with all honesty that I have a far better command of the English language and the grammar rules that apply than a professor... if you really are a professor.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. if your not jealous then why did you bring it up?
I mean if you base your criticism on how someone does not write to your standards on a message board then I gather you are a pretty wound up individual. I am a history professor by the way so just to put you at ease I have an editor.
But again you deviate from the issue , you cannot back up your claims

In my experiences when someone gets personal they have lost the argument

by the way spell check is a godsend:rofl:
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. What did I misspell?
Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 07:12 PM by Juniperx
Nothing.

I don't need to back up my claims. It is common knowledge that dKos is a blog... Markos is a blogger... blogs carry no more weight around here than what any other DUer says. Opinion does not equal fact. Markos deals in opinion.


Check out bloggers attacking bloggers...

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5621
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #35
38. I didn't say you misspelled anything
I was making fun of myself because I am a horrible speller, I was just giving you more info to attack me with

didn't you know everything is opinion, a fact is subjective
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WinkyDink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:13 PM
Response to Original message
25. A predicted human event is not a fact.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:11 PM
Response to Original message
36. That's a fact, Jack.
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informatico Donating Member (6 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
37. In today's Gallup, both Obama and Clinton trail McCain by 1%
No sign there that one is more electable than the other. Also a new Cook Political Report poll has them faring as well vs. McCain (Obama leads McCain by 1%, while Clinton and McCain are tied).
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