5 reasons why Hillary Clinton has great odds to be the democratic nominee

1. First of all this,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/24/media-jump-ship-from-obam_n_98545.html

The media narrative has changed.

2. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

But a path does exist for Clinton. Here's what it looks like:

* Money, Money, Money: First and foremost, Clinton needs to find a way to avoid being outspent by Obama at anywhere near the volume with which he bombarded her in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those two states played to Clinton's demographic strengths and insulated her from Obama's vast spending. She can't rely on that built-in advantage in the states to come -- particularly in North Carolina and Indiana.

At the end of March, Clinton trailed Obama by more than $30 million in cash on hand. She's not likely to close such a gap in the next few weeks and is almost certain to get out spent again. But she has to come within shouting distance to stay competitive. The news that Clinton has raised $10 million on the Internet since her win in Pennsylvania is a good sign. But she'll need more. A lot more.

* Indiana in Hand: There's no scenario by which Clinton can make a strong case to superdelegates if she can't win in the Hoosier State on May 6. The best argument Clinton has at her disposal right now is that Obama cannot win over blue collar, white voters who have been hit hard by the economic slowdown and are looking for a politician to look out for them. Indiana is not as heavily populated with those sorts of voters as Ohio or Pennsylvania, but there is still a significant bloc of them in the Hoosier State. If Obama can win -- even by a single point -- he takes a huge amount of air out of Clinton's balloon.

At the moment, Indiana is probably a toss-up between the two candidates, with Obama running strong in and around Indianapolis as well as in big college towns like Bloomington (Indiana University) and South Bend (Notre Dame). Clinton's strength is in the rural areas of the state (not surprisingly) and in the fact that Sen. Evan Bayh, whose name is political gold in the state, is her most prominent backer there.

* The Element of Surprise: The one thing that Clinton hasn't done since New Hampshire is defy conventional wisdom. Her come-from-behind victory in the Granite State was amplified because NO ONE -- not even many within her own campaign -- saw it coming. Obama has had any number of those "oh wow" moments -- from his convincing win in Iowa to his massive margins in South Carolina and Virginia to his upset of Clinton in Missouri. For Clinton to build a sense of momentum, she needs to do more than win her home games (Puerto Rico, Kentucky, West Virginia) from here on out. She needs a road win too. The most likely? Probably Montana or South Dakota -- small, rural, white states. It's not clear whether a narrow Clinton loss in a state like North Carolina, which favors Obama demographically, would count as a sufficient surprise.

3. If Florida and Michigan are seated in any voting capacity whatsoever, 2,208 delegates become what are required to win the nomination and not 2,024. Hillary can combine her delegates with Edwards et al delegates to hope for a 2nd ballot win. I agree that it is not likely that she can have a 1st ballot victory under any circumstances. However, what happens once NOTHING is pledged on the 2nd ballot is anybody's guess.

4. Former President Clinton and Senator Clinton's extensive superdelegate campaign. They have the inside track so to speak. They could woo enough over to win a convincing superdelegate majority.

5. The popular vote. With the margin being just 500 K or 200 K w Florida, Clinton can conceivably win the PV with landslide wins in KY, WV and what could be a high turnout Puerto Rico primary. Over a million could conceivably vote there. If she has won the popular vote at the end of the day, she will have a moral claim to the nomination that is as strong as Senator Obama's.

So the changing narrative + her popular vote chances + seating Florida and Michigan in any capacity is her trifecta to win the nomination so to speak.

It's not over.

Monica is very old news.

It's ingrained in our culture. It evokes all sorts of feelings and emotions that the GOP can exploit if and when they decide to go there.

It did not matter much then.

That will be McCain's ad.

it all as RW nonsense while the 'centrists', Hillary's current supporters, like Hillary's good friend Lieberman were throwing them under the bus - have given up on the Clintons. She's alienated the progressives, and can't depend on the centrists. Where's she gonna go?

Can you provide anything that supports your theory?

And, what, exactly, is a progressive, which really didn't exist the 90's, the era which you reference. Back then it was conservatives and liberals. I had no idea that centrists have a political ideology.

Or did you come up with this observation without anything more than a vague take on the current scenario and a really vague memory of the 90's.

I can tell you when Clinton alienated the liberals, when he signed welfare "reform" into law, removing an established net, because the Bushes were afraid of "welfare queens", what a fucking hateful term.

Progressives, well at that time, it was an auto insurance and the centrist party is news to me.

century. The term fell out of favor, supplanted by 'liberal', but it meant more or less the same thing - though progressive has always been more a populist term. Strong roots in labor and international socialism - one reason it fell out of favor since the 30s.

As for the so-called centrists, those are the squishy middle that flip between republican and democrat, or those who have deliberatly chosen a 'third way' which is neither -- namely the DLC. Socially moderate, fiscally pro-corporate. They are what the republican base was before the neocons took over (of course, the republican ruling class was always pro-corporate, anti-labor.) In truth, the DLC is NOT Democratic - it is a centrist party which is using the Democratic party as its base, and its goals are 100% at odds with progressive populism.

Study your history.

it's not dead. and, tho I stood by him then, I no longer do. Bill's gutter attacks make me sick. Also, AT THE TIME, I said he should have resigned so that Gore would have had an easy in for the prez nom. but again, his fat ego wouldn't allow that. the clintons have made many new enemies during this campaign and most of them are fellow democrats.

In fact, Ayers isn't news at all, as far as it concerns Obama.

... but you can bet the whole "honor and integrity in the White House" will be a major issue in a CLinton-McCain GE race. And that's just one of the aspects of the previous Clinton term that will be resurrected.

(but not to worry, ain't gonna happen. O8!)

only primaries.

The SD's are not going to give it to her, and she cannot catch Obama at this late date.

A little bit is OK, but once you start seeing hallucinations, ya really need to cut back.

A fact that many of us are reminding our fellow Hoosiers of.

... watch for the howling of the dogs at the gate, the rising of the sun in an unsettling sky, and the gnashing of the pomegranate-eaters' teeth reflected in a muddy pond outside the old man's shed.

:rofl:

...within the left breast pocket of a blind butcher, who sits on a porch between Memphis and Clarendon, Arkansas, stroking the bald head of a very old tom cat and reading Norman Mailer.

Mark my word.

His electability issues will largely have been dealt with and thrown in the garbage. He'll be the nominee that night. If he loses Indiana and wins NC just because his core constituencies make up a larger share of the vote in NC than Hillary's, he's in trouble. If he wins North Carolina by a 15-20 point landslide but loses IN just narrowly, he'll still probably be the nominee.

when Clinton won Ohio & Pennsylvania because her core constituencies made up a larger share of the vote than Obama's that was because she's a winner and a fighter and Obama's in trouble.

When his core constituencies make up a larger share of a state like NC, then it's a nothing win that he doesn't get credit for because it was a good demographic for him.

This is your argument you are making to sane people?

were corrupt DLC criminal governors with the keys to the Diebold machines, and crazed fans of a drug addled right wing terrorist radio psychopath.

I'll address only one. Its' fine that PR has 66 delegates and gets to participate.

If you think that anyone in America really gives a shit what PR thinks about nominating our party's nominee then you are completely dellusional. They have no electoral votes. You cannot argue that Hillary is winning the states that need to be won on the one hand and include PR on the other.

Trying to add Puerto Rico to 'put Hillary' over the top will reduce the Clinton campaign to a vaudeville act.

www.lotterypost.com
and it's free.

She has no realistic chance of being the nominee, but her stubborn ego wont allow her to concede, and by not conceding she is stringing along her supporters, giving them false hope.

And that false hope is going to create a large division within our party when she finally does face reality and concedes.

She IS deliberately destroying our party unity by continuing on against all odds of winning, and she's taking people like you for a ride.

And without the FL/MI variable, I'd have largely discounted them. But I do see the potential for a credentials committee and convention floor fight over MI/FL. And if MI/FL count in any sense combined with a HRC popular vote win, it's far from over.

Tell me. How does Senator Obama get to 2,208 delegates? He has 1780 or so pledged delegates by the end of the primaries. He'll need around 470 (?) or 480 supers to get there.

Hence, we go into Denver undecided to say the least.

based on current pledged and declared "super" delegates. http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html

Currently there are around 300 undeclared SD's.

It's been demonstrated time and time again.

Suggest you read "For the Love of Politics." http://www.amazon.com/Love-Politics-Hillary-Clinton-White/dp/1400063248/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1209106843&sr=8-1

edit: sorry I didn't mean to link to you, but was suggesting book for Tropics_Dude :hi:

This should be fun!

Wellstone would be doing cartwheels in his grave at the thought of a Hillary pResidency.

She and Obama tied in New Hampshire. Both won 9 delegates.

But I guess that's a "win" like she "won" Texas even though Obama won more delegates.

On her current path she would need OVER 80% of the remaining SD's... since even when she was the presumed nominee, she could only get 60% (which has whittled down to 54%), she has no way of getting 80%.

It's over.

And that WaPo article is pretty good, no?

But, hey, keep hope alive and keep moving those goal posts ...

Don't you have a Georgetown Cocktail Party to go to tonight or something?

Two weeks out she had a 20 point lead - and she won by 3 points. How does a 17 point drop come out as a 'come from behind win'?

Montana? SD? Small rural white? Like the other mountain states that Obama walked away with?

Edwards? Obama has a lock on BOTH Edwards' home states, NC & SC. Really think he's going to throw his support to Hillary and the DLC, which screwed him and Kerry over in 04?

It's over.

I've finally figured out WHO answers those emails from African Lottery winners who need some American to go pick up their winnings for them, ready to split the 100 Million dollar fortune, but who just need ALL of your Cash to meet you at the Lotto office... :)

No wonder Killery scored "ten million" bucks in 24 hours, the SAME DUPES!!

please buy this book; you're going to need it:

I don't think so :puke: :puke:

and that is because he has the most liberal voting
record in senate. McGovern had similar record and we all
know what happened to him.

From what I remember, 4 years ago Kerry was supposed to be the most liberal senator (what a coincidence!), and as far as I know he did not get any less liberal since, so something does not seem to add up here... These "classifications" are meaningless and nothing more than RW talking points. Will Obama be labeled as such? Undoubtedly, he already is. Should it affect anybody's decision? Definitely no, the republicans will not be short of talking points no matter who the nominee is.

...click.

All h/she did was post a legitimate argument for why she is still alive. It contained no Obama bashing.

Typical RW behavior.

Sorry.

Hillary squandered hundreds of millions of dollars. She has no money left because she is inept at financial management. Obama still has cash because he understands fiscal restraint and responsibility. He understands financial management. Which one do you think the SDs will want to give the Nations purse to?

first - Evan Bayh's name is NOT political gold in this state among those who are involved in grass roots politics. he has name recognition but he does not have the undying love of democrats here.

second - you cannot and will not change the rules set forth before the Florida and Michigan votes. If you try to do this, you will have a riot on your hands. I HAVE HAD IT with this sort of political b.s. Had enough of it with Bush. Don't need or want it with Clinton. Florida and Michigan did what they did knowing the consequences. If you think ppl will vote for Hillary if she pulled such a stunt, you are living in fantasy land.

Clinton's strength is in the rural areas of the state... the low population density areas of the state... the areas of the state where there are NOT ENOUGH VOTERS for it to matter.

Again, if Bill and Hill fuck over the democratic voters and try to pull a superdelegate coup, you will see many ppl who will not for for a democratic candidate. It's as simple as that. Hopefully the superdelegates are smart enough to recognize that you do not go against the base of the party with the most money and educational resources in order to satisfy a petulant Billary's need to win.

Will you folks PLEASE try to accept reality? She is not going to be the nominee. She has already lost. She needs to gracefully concede before half the democratic party hates her guts.

... the asteroid hitting the Obama campaign bus. Absent such a catastrophic event -- political, astronomical or such -- Obama will be the nominee.

Honestly, though, Obama does need to win one or two of the remaining contests, but just one could seal the deal, be it North Carolina, Indiana or Oregon. As for Indiana having any meaning, Hillary can't claim Indiana as being an "important" win without throwing-out all her previous denigration of small, "red" states that Obama has already won.

A Clinton win in North Carolina would be the biggest hit to Obama in the process, so far, were it to happen, but it will remain difficult for the supers to overturn the pledged delegate majority.