Uncommitted Superdelegates weren't shaken by Pennsylvania...still don't like Hillary!

From MSNBC's First Read and Politico this morning:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9862.html
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/25/944977.aspx

The torrent of speculation about the end game of the Democratic nomination contest is creating a false sense of suspense – and wasting a lot of time of the multitudes who are anxious to know how this contest is going to turn out.

Notwithstanding the plentiful commentary to the effect that the Pennsylvania primary must have shaken superdelegates planning to support Barack Obama, causing them to rethink their position, key Democrats on Capitol Hill are unbudged.

“I don’t think anyone’s shaken,” a leading House Democrat told me. The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to.

Essentially, they are three:

(a) Hillary Rodham Clinton is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting Republican in November, and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing Democrats down the ticket – i.e., themselves, or, for party leaders, the sizeable majorities they hope to gain in the House and the Senate in November.

(b) To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base of the Democratic Party, and, in the words of one leading Democrat, “The superdelegates are not going to switch their voter and jeopardize the future of the Democratic Party for generations.” Such a move, he said, would also disillusion the new, mostly young, voters who have entered into politics for the first time because of Obama, and lose the votes of independents who could make the critical difference in November.

(c) Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost the Democrats numerous seats.

One Democratic leader told me, “If we overrule the elected delegates there would be mayhem.” Hillary Rodham Clinton’s claim that she has, or will have, won the popular vote does not impress them – both because of her dubious math and because, as another key Democrat says firmly, “The rules are that it’s the delegates, period.” (These views are closely aligned with Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s statement earlier this year that the superdelegates should not overrule the votes of the elected delegates.)

Furthermore, the congressional Democratic leaders don’t draw the same conclusion from Pennsylvania and also earlier contests that many observers think they do: that Obama’s candidacy is fatally flawed because he has as yet been largely unable to win the votes of working class whites. They point out something that has been largely overlooked in all the talk – the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries were closed primaries, and, one key congressional Democrat says, “Yes, he doesn’t do really well with a big part of the Democratic base, but she doesn’t do well with independents, who will be critical to success in November.”

So, the fact that Mrs. Clinton has shown herself to be a remarkably resilient, tough campaigner, an attribute that the Clintons hope will carry much importance, this Democrat says, “is irrelevant.” This person added: “Many of the superdelegates are not going to be naïve enough to not realize the handwriting on the wall that this thing is going to Obama” – barring, he added, some major event like the Wright matter that he can’t seem to manage. They consider this unlikely. (There’s almost always a “something-might-happen” factor in elections.) As for the Wright matter, a key Democrat on Capitol Hill says, “Though it makes a little nervous, it’s not enough to change their minds.” Moreover, the Wright matter may be old news come the general election.

At first, a large number of superdelegates planned to announce their support for Obama following Super Tuesday, but he didn’t do well enough to warrant that; then it was to be after Ohio and Texas; then after Pennsylvania; and some Democrats suggest that if Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina a number of superdelegates will announce for him then. But the prevailing thinking is to allow the race to play out, avoiding a confrontation with Clinton and her backers, but also letting the pressure grow on her to justify continuing to fight a bloody but lost cause. This is, the thinking goes, the best and perhaps only way to get the thing wrapped up, as they so desperately want to do.

“We may have to go to June, and whoever ends up with the most delegates wins,” a key Democrat says. “Meanwhile, the attention will be on the battle she can’t win, so why is she doing this – from here on out she’s only bleeding the party. The right way to put it is, ‘This is a war of attrition and it’s obvious that the numbers aren’t going to add up, so what’s the point?’” He added, “The hope is that at some point the superdelegates will get frustrated and join the Obama bandwagon.”

This pressure may not be enough to get the tenacious Hillary Rodham Clinton to quit the race, but, says a leading Democrat, “Sometime in June we will make it clear to her that this thing isn’t going to the convention.”

We had a local judge election that worked out this way. A very disagreeable candidate had all sorts of meet and greets and usually about 50 per cent of those who met her voted for the other candidate. I think Sen. Clinton has the same effect on people. Just my opinion. :hide:

...but the more people see Hillary the more they recoil from her, and are moving towards Obama.

Leaders in the Democratic Party, such as Bill Richardson, specifically endorsed Obama because of the Clinton Bush/Rove tactics.

I have my doubts about the legitimacy of the PA vote. When I saw where Hillary was speaking, it was always a small crowd. She had to cut one speech short because the audience continued to speak to each other and ignored Hillary. Obama had volunteers all over PA.

Yet the majority of votes voted for Clinton?

I'm with Boby Kennedy Jr: there is something fishy about a vote count when the hand-counted votes go overwhelmingly for Obama and the machines for Hillary (this was in the NH race).

I hope someone with more knowledge on this issue than me can sort this out. Something is is scerwy here, and I don't want another neocon to steal this election, even if the neocon is a "Democrat."

they have to wonder about the vision thing*.



*This vision thing being whether team Clinton can see beyond their own pipe dreams and recognize reality. We've had quite enough of president in dreamland with bush/cheney. Do NOT need more clouded vision at this point in time.

That's her biggest problem.

1) Hill is the anti-christ to republicans, LITERALLY ... They can do the bizarre spin about how they are tougher and will take the attacks, but this mentality is part of what WILL bring the Rs out in mass to take her on ...
2) Obama having the nomination stolen from him, and it WILL have been stolen, would, RIGHTFULLY, be a massive smack in the face of african americans, who would RIGHTLY, in mass, either note vote, or go republican ...
3) A signficant majority of the new and converted dems this cycle were brought to the party by Obama ... Again, if he gets the nomination stolen, these young voters and converted Rs WILL either not come out, or go R ...

Yes, I need to remember that it's NOT going to the convention. If I can see that, the SDs can see that.

There is no reason for a super to back such a dark figure such as Hillary.

and he is going to win a majority of the the pledged delegates.

So it's pretty simple really.

We have had 40 something contests and Obama is clearly winning. On May 20th, he should capture a majority of the pledged delegates.

In this case, "like" is more along the lines of "Who do you like in the fifth?" Has nothing to do with likeability.

It's great to see her work on a high profile politics site. Thanks very much for posting the article :hi:

:applause: :applause: :applause:

Perhaps geriatrics is catching up to her as it has John McCain?

Can't fool these old birds!

While people get excited about media spin and campaign spin, the SDs are professional politicians and they aren't confused or even suckered in by spin. They know what's going on and they can count votes -- especially future votes. They read the raw figures from the elections and can calculate percentages in their head. They will make their decisions based on what they see as reality -- not whether the Clinton campaign has declared a 9-point lead to be "double digits" or all the shrieking about "closing the deal." They know that Hillary had planned to "close the deal" on Super Tuesday, failed to do that, and has been in an unproductive frenzy ever since.

she won by 9% which demonstrates that Obama made big gains in six weeks when he was 20 plus points behind.

thanks for posting.

Many superdelegates have pledged to vote for whichever candidate has the highest number of pledged delegates. More should publicly make that pledge. That would put Obama over the top before the last primary, because it would be even more obvious that Hillary cannot catch up.

Hillary's popular vote claim is particularly deceiving because it ignores many states that did not release vote numbers from their caucuses. I guess they are just unimportant states.

the superdelegates are coming his way

Clinton and her backers." Why would the majority of SDs care more about avoiding confrontation with Clinton more than preparing the presumptive nominee and the party for the fall GE? Some SDs close to Clinton, maybe. Regarding the SD delay in announcing, I CAN believe:

SDs are waiting for the moment of maximum tension and attention...the biggest spotlight

SDs are waiting until both candidates have tapped the public for maximum donations...all the campaigning and dollars does help in the fall too.

SDs are waiting for an appropriate number of primaries to pass. Would be unseemly to jump the gun with all the SDs at once. Seems to me we're there now or very soon.

Some SDs actually support Clinton but can't go against their own primary or against their friend until the fat lady has sung. They'll then slide under the radar.

Some SDs are angling and negotiating for spots in the administration or at least for recognition to get in line for favors for their states.


It's certainly a mess and not too pretty...but the outcome seems set and I believe that soon we'll see the massive political machinery of most of the nation move slowly but inevitably and firmly behind Obama. This things almost over.