Why the Economy May Favor McCain on Election Day

Robert Oak

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:31 PM
Original message

Why the Economy May Favor McCain on Election Day

Over on The Economic Populist, New Deal Democrat
describes the history of the Federal Reserve actions which make the economy seem ok during the general election.

With graphs, thought provoking read!

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no_hypocrisy

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:37 PM
Response to Original message

1. A redux of Bush-41 and "Don't Worry. Be Happy!"

Edited on Fri Apr-25-08 12:38 PM by no_hypocrisy

Otherwise known as suspension of disbelief.

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Seabiscuit

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:38 PM
Response to Original message

2. I don't think people will buy it this time, when the price of just eggs is up 43%

and let's not talk oil prices.

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redqueen

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. Hm... would Bush release the oil reserves?

Hillary keeps talking about that...

If he did it in Sep/Oct...

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Robert Oak

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #4

10. exactly

It's completely possible that they manipulate the oil markets during the general. Dubai is the one looking to "decouple" from the US dollar but they also have a lot of investments in the US, so they could certainly get the price to drop.

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Robert Oak

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #2

8. inflation

There is a lot of indicators that inflation will cycle back down....again in time for the general election.

I'm not so convinced but go over and read New Deal Democrats posts on The Economic Populist
and see the analysis. It's in depth, a lot of graphs, history of inflationary pressures and New Deal is not alone...

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DJ13

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:41 PM
Response to Original message

3. Bull & crap

Obama's economic team is headed by Paul Volker, former head of the Federal Reserve under Carter and Reagan.

McCain doesnt stand a chance when he's getting his economic advice from the likes of Meg Whitman (former CEO of Ebay) and Carly Fiorina (failed former CEO of HP).

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Robert Oak

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #3

12. Goolsbee

is the chief Obama economic adviser. Paul Volker, Mr. "Supply side", I believe endorsed Obama, but he's not on the campaign team.

Also your assumptions are not so valid because Obama is putting forth policy that the middle class is really looking for, bottom line. Just talking about the problem versus offering solutions or talking about environmental and labor standards in trade agreements is just not going to cut it.

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IsItJustMe

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:51 PM
Response to Original message

5. Why do I have to come to DU and listen to right wing shit? Why?

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Robert Oak

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #5

9. This is not Right Wing Shit

Firstly, New Deal Democrat is a very well known Progressive writing on economics and secondly considering this blog post might help Democrats adjust their campaigns so this time....it doesn't happen and yet again a Republican wins.

This is most assuredly not right wing shit, it's a very interesting analysis on market manipulation for a general election and has much more to do with multinational corporations and their influence.

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Barack_America

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:53 PM
Response to Original message

6. This doesn't seem to be doing much for the price of gas.

This seems to be an economic meltdown that even the Fed can't cover-up.

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redqueen

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #6

11. The effects of the sub-prime fiasco & huge job losses...

Edited on Fri Apr-25-08 01:19 PM by redqueen

those will not be so easily masked, no.

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Robert Oak

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:23 PM
Response to Reply #11

13. subprime/jobs

By creating more fictional money at least on paper they are making the subprime disappear, of course not for those 2 million losing their homes. But 2 million isn't enough to change the election, especially when Obama isn't offering up a real solution package to those people either. a $500 tax credit to those who are being foreclosed on is most assuredly not going to win their votes. The unemployment rate recently dropped.

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redqueen

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #13

15. The unemployment rate is a sham.

Real people are behind those numbers... and they can't be 'massaged' into disappearing.

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Robert Oak

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Fri Apr-25-08 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #15

18. absolutely

What New Deal is describing is that classic Bush/Kerry, Bush/Gore situation. When Democrats don't offer true policy positions and campaign promises, which is what, especially the rust belt want and know is the answer to their economic woes, they conclude "both the same" and vote on other issues, such as national security and so on.

So, by giving the illusion the economy is slightly better that helps push voters into the GOP camp is what this blog post says.

Go over and read it, it's very good.

So many people right now are caught up in this primary, whereas the general is the real bomb.

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midnight

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Fri Apr-25-08 12:58 PM
Response to Original message

7. I made a joke of sorts to my daughter. I said I filled up the car

for 400.00, and I filled up the refrigerator for 400.00. Then she piped in and said, sitting here and drinking coffee with me-priceless. She did make me laugh using that line from the credit cards who sold us reasons to go into debt. But my point was not that my groceries or gas cost 400.00 dollars, but that it felt like it. It has been feeling like this for many years. I don't take much credence in these experts anymore. I only see how it is effecting my bottom line. That's the expertise I'm using, and I think others will too.

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cali

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:25 PM
Response to Original message

14. it's an interesting read

but I don't see it being pulled off this year. They left it until too late.

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charlie

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:33 PM
Response to Original message

16. The Fed's caught in a trap of their own making

They're raining money right now, have been for a while. Doing more of the same close to November won't help, not this time around. Their easy money is killing the dollar and has had no effect on longterm interest rates. The only tool they have left is to hold off the inevitable tightening until after the election.

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totodeinhere

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Fri Apr-25-08 01:37 PM
Response to Original message

17. I don't think it's gonna work this time.

The economy might be so bad off by November that there will nothing that they can do to try to cover it up.

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Rydz777

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Fri Apr-25-08 03:47 PM
Response to Original message

19. Maybe. Maybe not. But what really worries me is all the

poison pills Bush is leaving behind, each one enough to sink the next President - while he sits in air-conditioned retirement down in Crawford enjoying his Schadenfreude.

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