I Hate SUSA - new poll has Clinton up in Indiana !

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html

No Clear Trend in Indiana -- Clinton Ends April Just As She Started: In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/28/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton finishes ahead of Barack Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead. SurveyUSA tracking graphs show movement toward Clinton in the middle of April but offsetting movement to Obama at the end of April. This back-and-forth can be seen clearly on the interactive tracking graphs for males, for Democrats, for pro-choice voters, and for residents of greater Indianapolis. Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky. Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half. Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent

...In statistics, that would be considered an "outlier" and thsoe findings would be discarded.

They've actually simply been pretty close on all of the results. California, Ohio, and many others were nearly identical to the final results.

Same poll had her up about 17 two weeks ago.

so he actually has gained back ground since their last poll.

It's the couple of weeks before a primary that people start making their decisions. HRC has large leads because of familiarity. But as the primaries get closer some of those early supporters may switch and the noncommitteds make up their minds. So I think it's erroneous thinking to believe that Obama is always making these big gains when he's shown to be 16% behind and then 10% behind. Ten percent behind is a lousy showing.

For the record, I'm a former Clinton supporter now an Obama supporter (become one in the weeks following the Bosnia faux pas and the "elite" comments). I'm reporting as I see it, not as I wish it to be.

It's no surprise. Indiana would be Clinton country. She did very well in southern Ohio counties. Indiana is a similar demographic.

She may even win W. Va. and Kentucky. Obama will win big in North Carolina. I doubt her upcoming wins will sway the superdelegates. They know what's best for the party and that would be an Obama nomination.

SUSA isn't infallible.