Clinton now leads by 7 in IN as Obama's 5 point lead evaporates. Both beat McSame in IN

-snip-

Downs Center/SurveyUSA
(Pres release, Gov release, Crosstabs)

Indiana
Clinton 52, Obama 45 (n=689)

n=1,274
Obama 48, McCain 47... Clinton 48, McCain 45

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_downs_center_indiana_4283.php

The previous Downs Center poll had Obama ahead 50-45--but that was before Clinton's big Pennsylvania win that shifted momentum.

Don't be confused by SUSA's involvement in this. This is a Downs Center poll. SUSA conducted it but it used Downs' methodology, not its own. We saw this confusion earlier when folks thought Downs/SUSA was the same thing as SUSA and thought the Downs poll represented Clinton tanking in IN.

Corrected.

;)

:crazy:

Just saying.

Obama himself said IN was a level playing field between them. Obama was leading there until her big PA win.

Things change

She loses.
Get over it.

Why is she still in the race?

and the only way I thought he'd ever win there is if he was the only person on the ballot. I know the state a little.

And that Obama gets more Republican support as a whole.

that polls tend to change on an hourly basis and various polls exist to make all sides warm and fuzzy?

Trend 1: Obama surges, takes lead
Trend 2: Clinton moves into a dead heat after winning PA
Trend 3: Clinton steadily inching forward

the Wright controvesy and before Obama broke with him. So I think that has something to do with Hillary's gains. On the other hand, Zogby did his two day tracking poll on Wed and Thursday after Obama cut off Wright, and shows the race tied.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/58_say_obama_denounced_wright_for_political_convenience_not_outrage

How likely is it that Barack Obama shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States?

Very Likely


26%

Somewhat Likely


30%

Not Very Likely


24%

Not at All Likely


11%

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of the nation’s Likely Voters believe Barack Obama denounced his former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most—58%--say he denounced the Pastor for political convenience. The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night. Obama made his statements about Wright on Tuesday.

H on the left, O on the right.

Zogby 4/30-5/1/08 680 LV 42 42 9
ARG 4/30-5/1/08 600 LV 53 44 3
Downs Center 4/28-30/08 689 LV 52 45 3
Rasmussen 4/29/08 400 LV 46 41 13
TeleResearch 4/25-29/08 943 LV 48 38 14
PPP (D) 4/26-27/08 1388 LV 50 42 8
SurveyUSA 4/25-27/08 628 LV 52 43 2
Research 2000 4/23-24/08 400 LV 47 48 5
ARG 4/23-24/08 600 LV 50 45 5
Howey-Gauge 4/23-24/08 600 LV 45 47 8
Selzer-Star-WTHR 4/20-23/08 534 LV 38 41 21
Downs Center 4/14-16/08 578 LV 45 50 5
Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14/08 687 LV 35 40 19
SurveyUSA 4/11-13/08 571 LV 55 39 3
ARG 4/2-3/08 600 LV 53 44 2

http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

What hurt him was losing PA. Since then she has steadily been gaining ground, as she consistently does in the final week before the vote (she did it in OH, TX, PA, and is also doing it in NC).

Between now and midnight Monday there will a hundred posts on DU saying either Obama or Clinton are ahead by X in either or NC and IND in various and asundry polls.

Trend 5: Republicans celebrate McCain's victory in November.

and also some of this poll was taken during the height of the WRight controversy.

Why does he keep losing against a candidate he is outspending 2:1, 3:1? If IN polling is correct and the undecideds break to her like they do almost everywhere outside of the South he is headed to a double digit defeat in his backyard.

Obama's slide began before pastorgate. Pastorgate has hurt his favorables but it hasn't hurt his numbers in IN. It may have cost him 2 points. Big deal.

Another thing to consider is the twist on "when he begins campaigning he closes the gap." That has been true in states where she is the front runner at the beginning. We have now seen her do the same in states where he started as the front runner in IN, NC, and are seeing signs of it in OR too. Maybe he isn't a magical campaigner after all and some folks' instinctive preference changes as they get to see the other candidate?

NC? Perhaps. IN? Nope.

I have been saying for a while that we ought to target Indiana this year. If not to win it, at least to make the republicans spend money there. Ironically, it just occurred to me that that might have been what Kantor was saying about a poll showing Bill Clinton ahead in Indiana in the video.

IN will go red in November. Both candidates have artificially high numbers in IN because they have been campaigning there for weeks while McSame hasn't. Even Clinton lost IN by 6 in 1996, a year he won nationally by 8 and won the electoral college 379-159.

We have to take it when we get it.

Even if we force McCain to campaign there that's a victory...it's time he doesn't get to spend in Ohio or Pennsylvania. Republicans pull this every year by scaring us into campaigning in New Jersey.

I've come to the conclusion that this whole primary is basically a draw.

Both of them have reached their level, which is about equal support. Obama ebbs and flows within a certain spectrum, as does Hillary. I think Democrats are basically split down the middle, and both have about equal core support, with a fairly small percentage of undecided who fluctuate based on the news of the day.

Clinton's support is increasing, his is declining. Even among so-called "latte liberals" his margins are not what they once were. The stalemate will be broken after she wins IN, blows him out on 5/13 in WV, blows him out in KY on 5/20 and gets a "road" win in OR.

They've won 48-50 states. That place is the most GOP friendly state ever. It's always the first state called for the GOP in a Presidential election 8:00 and 1 second the media calls Indiana.

A traditionally red state.