NATIONAL POLLS:
WaPo/ABC: Kerry 46, Bush 46, Nader 4
Gallup: Kerry 50, Bush 45, Nader 2
Rasmussen: 7/13: Kerry 48, Bush 45
STATE POLLS:
PA: Kerry 46, Bush 41, Nader 5
AR: Bush 49, Kerry 47
FL: Kerry 47, Bush 44
SC: Bush 51, Kerry 44
NC: Bush 54, Kerry 39, Nader
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Well so far, it does not look like selecting Edwards is having a great effect on Kerry's campaign dislodging Bush's stranglehold in the south, though it does look like there is some small effect on national polls. Not as large a bounce as previous selection of running mates has had in the past, but then again, the nation has never been as polarized in the past as it is now. Most polls have pretty consistantly showed that the percentage of crssover voting, Democrat for Republican, Republican for Democrat, has been the smallest in over 60 years, though some polls have shown that since the selection of Edwards, the percentage of Democrats who sstate they will vote for Bush has grown larger than the percent of Republicans who state they will vote for Kerry, and between March and the end of June, the opposite has been the case, with a larger percent of Republicans having stated that they would have voted Democrat, thatn the reverse For a while the crossover vote favored Kerry, almost 2 to one, while some of the latest polls that ask the question show that 88 percent of Democrats will vote for Kerry, andd 10 percent will vote for Bush 2 percent for Someone Else, The Question asked of REpublican show 92 percent voting for Bush and only 8 percent going for Kerry. These crossover numbers have grown larger, as in April, they were down in the 3-6 percent areas for crossover, with very little crossover among Democrats. Hard to say what has caused this change. Perhaps the selection of Edwards has had some effect, but other factors are most certainly involved. At the national level, Edwards certainly is responsible for some of the boost, but at the state level, particularly in the south, and particularly in North Carolina, the selection of Edwards seems to be pushing sotherners in the direction of Bush, or having little effect at all on Bush's kead in the southern states he has firm leads in. Until the sletion of Edwards polls showed Kerry behind Bush, but only in single digits. This first poll in Edwards home state shows Bush leading by double digits. Almost doubling the Bush lead there.
Then again, Kerry's pushing ahead in Pennsylvania looks very much to have been in part, probably largely so, due to the selection of Edwards as running mate. Edwards Blue collar background may have a a significant positive effect for the Kerry campaign in industrialized states where a large percentage of the workers are blue collar workers.
More good news for the Kerry campaign is the failure of the Bush Administrations failure today to push the wedge issue of gay marriage in Congress today, since the majority of the swing voters consider themselves "moderate" the issue of gay marraige is one that they do not consider important during this campaign season and in fact, the Pew Organization just did a ranking of issues by order of importance among swing voters, and an amendment defining marriage at the federal level n order to make state laws allowing gay unions illegal ranked 23rd in their consideration. Just on step above the importance of sending men to Mars. So Kerry/Edwards have won this one, and it is their campaign who are going to define the issues for this election. The economy, and the war in Iraq, where Edwards and Kerry mmost distinctly are holding the best hand. Edwards will be a very strong running mate for Kerry in the industrialized Midwest and Rust Belt, on the issues of the economy. Kerry's string hand will be on foreign relations. A constitutional amendment banning gay marriages and defining marriqage is not only a non starter, among the majority of swing voters, it may have done Bush some deep damage, giving these voters pause, beleiving BUsh has gone over the top, and is far more conservative than even the most conservative swing voter would like.THe perception of BUsh trying to push this wedge issue to center stage will not help him very much either.