Does anyone still believe the Democratic party is the odds on favorite to win in November?

We have two "camps" now, where each group increasingly hates the other candidate. Polls increasingly show that a higher and higher percentage will vote for McCain if their candidate loses. Ill-will abounds. Worse, while the Democratic party has the headlines, the level of discourse has sunken to discussions over which surrogate is worse, questioning of patriotism, pandering political gestures, and childlike behavior on both sides in abundance. Meanwhile, McCain can gaffe away, while still coming across as adult-like.

Back in January, I think if you took a poll, most everyone in the country would have said this election was pretty much a sure Democratic victory. Does anyone still believe we have sure Democratic victory at this point? If not, can we forgo the ridiculous Kumbaya bullshit that this race has not hurt our chances?

But I ask a more basic question. Does anyone believe the Democratic party is still the odds-on favorite to win in November? (this is of course a lessor standard than a "sure Democratic victory) 'Cause I sure don't. If I was truly independent, I would have a real hard time looking at the Democratic party and conclude, "Yeah, these guys look like they are the grown-ups I'm looking for to fix things..."

Yeah, the Republicans have truly fucked up our country, both foreign policy and domestic. Yeah, McCain wants to keep the war going, and has little insight on the economy. Regardless, we've set up the Republican playbook for both candidates, and have validated it. The MSM has already had a field day discussing how Hillary is a lying sack of shit who will say anything to win, and how Obama is an inexperienced, unpatriotic elitist. All the while they tout McCain as a "Maverick" who bucks party establishment.

So please, if you still "Believe", tell me why the democrats are still the odds-on favorite. Do you really think the youth vote and black people will come out in droves for Hillary? Will single white women and redneck working class will be casting their votes for Obama? I'm really interested to hear the rationale.

If we haven't yet, what exactly would we have to do to get you to say we've damaged our chances?

This primary is nothing compared to the Republican record for 7 years. It is demaged beyond repair.

It is about 2012 now.

I wouldn't be too surprised if we read political "insider" accounts stating this view was in vogue in one of the campaigns. And I am fairly pessimistic of our chances now. But I don't think I can go this far - that McCain is the Odds-on favorite now. To me, my real anger is that we've taken a sure thing in a year where it was REALLY critical that we win, and have turned it into a toss-up election at best.

I think the real elitist, these TV millionaires, like having their tax cuts for the rich and their ownership of this ongoing war ..

YES!

I think Bush has been a nightmare and that there really is no choice other then (the other nightmare) the Democratic Party.

Corporations will win. It just depends which corporate party is in charge. I still think it will be us.

to wonder if he's up to the job.

Just wondering, do you think they numbers Hillary got will mostly all going to Obama?

First, you can tick off the single white women vote because for them to vote or fail to vote in ANY way that will assist McCain is the destruction of women's rights. To do otherwise suggests that they would vote against their self-interest. That's not what people are prone to do.

Second, rednecks are racists. Period. Stop trying to make them sound palatable. I really don't give a fat rats ass about who racists vote for as that is not a constituency that I find acceptable but I know that they will likely be blunted if not eliminated entirely from anti-Iraq crossover from the Republican party. You see there are a significant number of Republicans who see Obama as their 2012 option just as some Hillarybots see McCain as a 2012 option. From my own on the ground work for the Obama campaign I've had enough discussions in GOTV efforts to make me comfortable in making that bet. Many Repubs will not support a continuation of the war which is guaranteed under McCain.

In what reality does this take place? So the Reagan Democrats were voting in their self-interests? Working class folks voting for Bush where voting for their self-interests? You can't really be saying this.

what they believed was their self-interest. That's just blind arrogance on your part.

I would say, YES, they will.

I believe that Democrats will support the nominee!

these voter categories you mention,

single white women will support Sen. Obama, I believe, for the fact of Roe-V-Wade. Justice Stevens isn't getting any younger.

redneck working class will support Sen. Obama, I believe, since you'd probably consider me one of them, I'm a Hoosier UAW auto-worker. Because everyday we see prices of everything go up, Milk, eggs, bread, not to mention gas. Running against John Mc Same and the lack of a economic plan, and even the basic knowledge economics should put us in Sen. Obama's column.

Doubt they will in November, either. But I would me more than thrilled to be surprised...

as you can get in Indiana. They're the reason why there's a Rep. Dan Burton!!

I only visit IN once a year or so. I'm happy to hear the rest of the state is not like that. :)

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that there are 'two' camps filled with people who hate? Yes I advocate Mr. Edwards for president with fervor while the nominating process is going on. I support Mr Obama because he is an option AT THIS TIME. But at no time do I hate Mrs Clinton.

The Democratic Party is odds-on favorite to win in November. The Democratic Party has not even begun to take aim at the GOP candidate. Once the battle is joined the issues and personality will clearly point the people toward the Democratic Party.

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Yes, its possible that everyone will forgive and forget and soldier behind the final choice. I just don't think "everyone" will. I just don't see large segments of the youth vote, for instance, who have never supported ANY candidate before, being strongly behind the democratic nominee just because their candidate was democratic. Similar for the bitterness of many women, who see that their candidate is the only qualified one, and that it won't matter who they vote for if she doesn't win.

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It is called democracy. It is the voice of the people being heard.

The process shows every sign of being well and capable. The candidate who emerges will be strong enough to take on the lying hate machine of the GOP.

The people really are smart enough to work through the issues themselves. The candidate from the other party offers little threat or alternative.

If there is an open and honest election in November (A very big IF) the vote will be against the GOP. The Democratic Party just has to show up to win.

Or is your position that its not possible to damage our chances in the primary?

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for Vice President, then maybe the people would stay away from the polls.

Look there really is not any difference between the Republican wing and the Democratic wing of the corporate party. So the Democratic Party will be allowed to say they won this coming election.

About the only thing that will stop the process, would be the man behind the curtain finally comes out and says, "Ha ha it is all a fake."

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Easily.

BUt I don't believe we've already lost, in the sense that there is no possible way for us to win now. It's going to depend upon the performance of our candidates, both the winner, and just as important, the loser. I think there is polarization now,which is reflective in the poll numbers(and G.E> matchups against mccain), but over time hopefully some of these hard feelings will soften, when the stakes of the election are further delineated. This will also take time, which is why I hope this thing ends at the latest in june, when everyone would have voted, but not go to august, where there will be less time to unify afterwards. But assuming we're able to do that, I think there will be a "unity bounce" that will help put the favor back onto our side. Then it will depend upon the skill of the candidate to maintain this advantage and defend skillfully against the incoming swift boats.

Yes, we still have a chance of winning in November, but gosh. Talk about throwing away a golden opportunity...

now I'm not sure. We had a great opportunity, now we'll have to work harder to acquire it. But the bottom line IMO is, given the high dem turnout and the low incumbent prez numbers, this election will be largely decided by how many democrats want to change from the past 8 years, and how much we are willing to sacrifice in order to reach that goal. We'll find out in the months ahead...

those who count the votes are the odds on favorites...

Women who support Hillary are pissed by the way this campaign has been from the beginning! We were thrown under the bus because BO was the anointed one and Dean did not want Hillary to win... the Clintons were cast as racist by the media and trashed after years of working for minorities and working people of all colors... Hillary was trashed and her character has been attacked... I find most of the rhetoric sexist! As a woman who has been ready for a female president for some time, I am angry that Dean and his people have decided to take my vote away from me!

If Dean had stepped in months agao and put an end to race-baiting and Obama had spoke out against it, I may be thinking different.. but the Clintons were thrown under the bus and blacks were made to dislike them for the sake of Dean getting his hand-picked candidate... Dean thought it was inevitable and wanted a liberal and maybe someone who would owe him! Hillary Clinton does not have to owe anyone anything... it is quite the opposite... the Clintons have power and Dean and Pelosi do not want to share it...

this is true for a number of the super-delegates who have jumped on the BO bandwagon! They are more about their own self-interest than really thinking BO is a great candidate with a great plan! BO is an empty suit... he has run on his fancy words which were written for someone else... he is Mr. Change???? What the hell is that going to do for the economy? BO has really done nothing and has nothing to run on other than inspiration... his mentor Pastor Hates America is finally bringing out who BO is...

will I vote for BO if he is the nominee? NO

How long have I felt this way? since SC and the smear of the Clintons... and my feeling have only solidified...

BO is a bad candidate... can't win.. and if he did would be a bad and divisive president! Our country and our party would suffer!!!

Obama, that you have a serious case of revisionist history (assuming this isn't a sarcastic post, as is often the case here). My perception is that Hillary sleeps in a bed of her own making, but this isn't really the point of the thread. In short, it sounds like you agree with me 100% that we are no longer the odds-on favorite.

and they, not surprisingly, chose two of the weakest and most divisive for us. I think that we will not only lose the White House, but also many races down the ticket, all the way to the local level. I wouldn't want to be running for license commissioner or dogcatcher as a Democrat this fall.

But then I never said I was Little Suzy Sunshine.

The problem for Hillary is though she is acting like a Republican, they HATE her. She's not electable.

Obama only wins if he has the bulk of the democratic party behind him. Are you saying he will? That single white women and redneck white guys will swing back to him?

if they are complete idiots, yes then perhaps they will choose McCain. As one of the "liberal lattes" Hillary criticizes, I can wait it out. I can write in Obama, pay $10/gallon for gas if I have to, and then vote for him again in 2012. Do you think most people can really wait it out? They will support Obama or they deserve what they get.

I agree with you that it would be against their interests to vote for McCain. Then again, this hardly stopped large segments of Ohio and Florida in 2000 and 2004 now, did it?

It is not what I would prefer, but perhaps that is what needs to happen. I doubt that it will, though. I still think the majority of Americans aren't sitting on political forums and will vote for change because the economy is so bad.

It is in our interest to have someone charismatic and new on the ticket though, because Hillary's negatives are pretty high when you look at the country overall. I never much liked her, and there are many moderates who really hate her, but could vote for Obama if they feel like the economy is just a complete mess.

I truly don't think we can win with her.

When Obama is the presumptive, McCain and the RW machine will go into overdrive.

it looks like the Democrats are divided, and along class lines at that. The party needs the votes of the "uneducated" and/or "working class" citizens (code words for the poor) - the people now being spit upon, condescended to, and sneered at by supporters of the probable Democratic nominee. As a progressive independent (recently a Green party member) I can only hope that stops, and quickly, or we'll all wind up on the losing end of the fight.

Its this perspective that gives me cause for concern. So many on each side now think its either their candidate or bust. 'Cause the other candidate just sucks so bad that it won't matter.

I hold out a fragile hope for a brokered convention with a different, better candidate who can unite the party and win in November emerging, but I know it's a long shot, to say the least.

And the Repubes nominated the only one on their side who had a shot to win the general. It isn't over yet, but short of a McCain meltdown, he's the odds-on favorite to win.

3 major reasons:
1. The republican nominee is incredibly weak. He has a major foot-in-mouth disease, is very old, has no clue about the economy, has flip-flopped on almost every issue, has deep character issues (which will come out more and more in MSM as the GE race hottens up), and for all his much trumpeted foreign policy expertise seems to confuse sunni's, shia's jewish holidays and god knows what else. Most importantly he represents a continuation of Bush, rather than a break.
2. The democratic nominee presents a different view point than the Repubs. I admit this is easier with Obama as the nominee but the Repubs have screwed America so badly in terms of the economy, foreign policy, consitutional violations that once the democrats start focusing on them, the Repubs will have nowhere to go.
3. The democratic voter base has grown exponentially this primary with blow-out turnouts everywhere. The demographics are completely pre-democratic.

So please stop worrying. Support whichever candidate you do support and build the voter base.

As an Obama supporter, I think I tend to focus on all the new people he has added. The truth of the matter is that Hillary has really excited a segment as well. Hopefully they come together. Although its not clear to me they will, even given the reasons you state.

And while McCain is relatively weak, he's FAR better than anyone else they could have put forward. He does have issues, but his brand name is still fairly respected.

Its going to be McCain against one of two candidates. Again, I like the undertow, and FULLY agree that back in January, EVERYONE thought it would be a sure thing that the Dems win. I just no longer believe that, neither do most. Many no longer believe we are the odds-on favorite. Hopefully this chances back once we solidify a nominee.

I've made up my mind that I'm not doing any hand holding for the faint of heart this year.
The Dems will win in Nov and by a landslide.

They are on a exploration of showing some "liberal types" in the need to get circulation up.

The California equity refugees from the housing boom trend more liberal than the populace at large.

anyone, in the media - print or televised - would ask McCain a couple of questions. He's getting a pass. When the sheeple find out he plans to take their employer-provided health insurance away in favor of everyone for themselves, it will be over. If anyone ever mentions it.

but I don't trust the republicans they do not play fair.

Maybe not "odds on" but still the favorite. Hillary can win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. Obamatrons have already written off FL and OH, and pretend they can make it up with imaginary victories in places like Idaho and Utah (that's a laugh and a half.)

If it's Obama though, the day after Election Day, Democrats will be asking themselves WHAT THE HELL WERE WE THINKING? That we could go with Barack Hussein Obama, the champion of the latte liberals and the African Americans, and somehow expect to win?

come out for Hillary in great numbers? That African Americans will as well? Again, your post is yet another example of why what I'm saying has credence - its yet another, "My candidate is great, your candidate sucks and cannot win" post. This to me translates as saying a good segment of the opposition will sit this one out if their candidate loses.

I would be a little worried about many of them possibly staying home, but Hillary would be smart enough to offer Obama the VP spot, which would erase that problem. One thing I'll say about latte liberals is that they are pretty good voters; I'd have no worries about them staying home in November.

The problem with Obama as the champion of the LLs and the AAs is that he would be hopeless at the top of the ticket -- average voters, who yes, tend to not be rich, and who yes, tend to be white -- average voters have issues with AAs and have issues with LLs. Obama can't win their votes.

(And when I say that average voters have issues with AAs, I'm not saying they're racist: I think most Americans realize that yes, AAs HAVE gotten a raw deal in this country's history: this is why Obama has special issues with Wright, lapel-pins, etc. The average voter wants to be extra-sure that an AA candidate for President has a broad enough view of this country and it's history that he can be a patriotic pro-American, despite his own people's grievances. Most people can understand why an African-American person might feel less than enthusiastic about this country: they just don't want to elect such a person to the Presidency.)

"Youths?" Relying on Da Yoof to carry us to victory in November is horribly misguided. That way lies McGovern.

Um, OK. Not sure I see Obama accepting the VP at this point though. Neither do I see it a great idea to write off the youth vote, but that's just me. I agree with you that the Starbucks crowd will still vote for Hillary, and that African Americans will come out in their traditional numbers, but certainly not the percentage they've shown in the primaries.

That's what 60/40 equates to, in man-to-man terms minus any house take.

Democrats have been roughly 60/40 chalk on all the wagering sites for a year or more. It hasn't deviated at all this cycle, despite the mass hysteria that a prolonged battle has sabotaged our chances.

In an open race we were never going to be heavy odds-on favorites. That's the misconception here and elsewhere. It's hardly the equivalent of a second term midterm where any mistake can be overcome by the landslide terrain.

How can we be massive favorites by nominating a Never-Never-Land candidate like first black or first woman? The pivotal states like Ohio and Florida are not going to prevent rural areas from participating. And without Florida or Ohio we can't dominate the electoral map.

Anyway, I'll take the 3 point favoritism every time. If states like Virginia and Colorado continue to drift our way in demographic terms then perhaps in a decade we'll manage a comfy cushion. That's anything but the case right now.

Odds-on simply means greater theoretical chance than all other outcomes combined. So the term doesn't have much significance in political scope, once we reach the general election. With only two options, naturally one will be odds-on, even if slight. The clowns are the ones who thrill to assert Hillary was a heavy odds-on favorite in a primary field with 8 or 9 other candidates, including two top tier opponents.

Here's the bottom line truth: Hillary was never favored to win our nomination by the same percentage Democrats are favored to win the presidency in November.

going to win in November - that all that junk was hype? Fair enough. Good post.

So do you think the last two months of the primaries have been basically irrelevant with regards to the GE?