Five Indicators that Point to Clinton preparing to Stop Her Campaign after NC/IN

Five Indicators that Point to Clinton preparing to Stop Her Campaign after NC/IN

1) Continuing Financial Problems

The Clintons were boasting about the huge bounce in fund raising after PA, including $ 10 million in one day. And yet at the end of the month there has been no announcement. If she had in fact taken in more than $ 20 million then you would expect her to boast about it. No announcement and no rumors.



2) Unable to buy enough ads.

Unable to buy enough ads the campaign has thrown away the law book and made an obvious end around the rules to use money from maxed out donors.

Details here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5805856&mesg_id=5805856



3) Change of Message – Stopped using messages that are GE divisive issues

The Clinton campaign has changed radically their message recently and have stopped using the issues that are most damaging to the party in the General Election. She has stopped referring to FL and MI delegates with the incendiary language they used before.

They have stopped even talking about the ‘popular vote’. They know now that they are not going to have any significant advantage in the popular vote.

They no longer refer to issues aimed at damaging Obama. They are running on pure pandering issues – Guam voting in presidential elections (requiring a constitutional amendment) and the silly “Gas Tax Holliday”. If they were going to launch a devistating last minute attack it would be out already.

She is now going out of her way stating that she will be ‘working her heart out’ in November.



4) Change of use of surrogates.

Nothing would be more embarrassing than to send out your ‘mad dog’ surrogates and then stop the campaign the next day. Over the last week the number and use of surrogates has changed and their tone is different. When Clinton’s own DNC Chair changed support from Clinton to Obama – no ‘Judas’ no attack.



5) An indication that they can count.

On Friday the Clinton campaign had their biggest SD day in the campaign. They picked up 4 Super Delegates. There was no press conferences no public appearances nothing. This is not a sign of a campaign that believes things are getting better.


And then there is this video of James Carville that basically admits that, barring Obama taking himself out of the campaign Hillary cannot win:


http://youtube.com/watch?v=4ACAOYv3DKk


This is not to say that the Clinton campaign has made a decision to stop on Tuesday. It does indicate that if the results do not bring in a substantial win for Hillary that they have layed the foundation for limiting damage and trying to leave on top. Perhaps a speech has been prepared for Tuesday.

:spray:

but the question is "Why isn't she bringing up these issues on the stump?". The reason, I believe, is that if trends continue she is going to have a modest win in Indiana, a significant loss in NC she will then make a rather quick transition to healer and party unifyer. People won't have a recent memory of her trashing Obama - which she has stopped on the stump.

:rofl:

We are awful damned important now, aren't we?

:rofl::applause::rofl:

:spray:

I Am America (And You Can Too).;-)

I didn't say that they weren't trying to get the most votes and even win, but that they have changed their PUBLIC PROFILE.


Even thought they will continue to use devisive ads and mailers they are staying away from it in front of cameras. If they win they will take it and continue, but issues like the one you refer to they are not bringing up on the stump, even though they are using it in their mailings.

When I click the last link re: Carville, it goes to a post about the 527 ads. I don't see the video for Carville. Is it within that post?

I'm so ready.

I had been noticing #3 as well.

1) Hillary just won Pennsylvania.
2) She is about to win Indiana.
3) She will likely come within 10 points after trailing by thirty in North Carolina.
4) With the amount of ads Obama has bought, he has still not put Hillary away. In fact, in the three states where he outspent Hillary 3:1 (Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania), he lost all three.
5) Hillary has a bunch of favorable primaries coming up (West Virginia, Puerto Rico and Kentucky).

It is wishful thinking to think she will leave the race.

while you are on your high horse here maybe you should not cherry pick.

saying she should be Obama's VP running mate.

(which would be a poison pill for the Dem ticket, guarantee defeat in November,and clear the way for Mad Dog Clinton's run in 2012.)

Hillary and does not contradict any of your points. (Which I don't agree with)

I didn't say that the Clintons have quit the campaign or that they won't continue if they happen to win on Tuesday.


They have clearly changed their message. My point is that should they not do well on Tuesday then they have laid the foundation for an attempt to leave on a high note and stop damaging the party in the GE.

This would counter the prevelant feeling that she is in fact trying to sabotage the GE with an eye towards 2012.

Y'all always seem to conveniently forget that.

...is verb tense. He is stating what is happening and what has happened, and you generally are stating what will happen...about to...will likely...coming up. Sorry, but weasle words just don't create confidence.

She will probably win P.R., but winning a territory that has no electoral college votes won't make for great hoopla. It will go largely unnoticed.

She will split or lose on May 6th. She will split May 20th(KY and OR) and she will lose the last day June 3rd(MT and SD). It will be tough to end the Primary's with a double lose.

So her only "good day" coming is May 13th. WV is a small state, and a red state. Not much to get very excited about there. I think grantcart is right in his wishful thinking. She can leave after the May 3rd vote and start the important steps of Unity. She will exit before the SUperdelegates have to embarrass her.

expect them to stay.

The other thing we don't know is how much money is coming in on a daily basis. If it continues to come in heavy then they will stay in and stop the ad buys. If the money has fallen off they probably will make a deal with Obama on debt.

she goes before the 13th
i would like to see ky and wv in his win column if for no other reason than the MSM's race centered analysis of wv and ky voters

It also is the area where Wright will have the greatest impact

Kentucky might be a shocker..

or her numbers won't be close enough to Obama's for the superdelegates to ignore. Neither a mere majority of the vote nor 69% of only three contests will help her:

43-point or more margin of victory = blowout

38 - 42 points = a "real" win

30 - 37 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech


And look at how her superdelegate lead has shrunk:




Hillary won't get a chance to make a special appeal to the superdelegates if enough of them support Obama to give him 2025.

:headbang:
rocknation

the grand opening in Northern KY.

It was Thursday evening.

Stop with the MSM talking points

But one can always hope.

Obama won TX

Obama won more delegates in Texas than Hillary...I see her use of fuzzy math has rubbed off on you!

:thumbsup:

Nice work as usual, GC!!!!!!

A lot.

I like the insight, I like the fluid brainy insight, and did I mention I love the insight you offer us?

Agree that your indicators may come to fruition soon.

On the first indicator, the financial woes -- I'm wondering if maybe all those extra snow shovels the Clinton campaign advance-ordered for the Iowa caucus could be auctioned off in a kind of yard-sale format.

Ed Rendell can serve as organizer, with Tom Vilsack doing the back-and-forth between the storage barn and the customers.

However, I HOPE you're right.

but this is a short term solution. If she has to use the ALP that means that she is having real money problems. It probably means that their $ 10 million day was probably a huge exaggeration and that on May 21st they have to reveal their exact numbers and it is unlikely to be a number that will instill confidence in SDs (and may expose a MacAuliffe lie).


Using the ALP is an indicator that her campaign finances are faltering. A sign of weakness not of strength.

Former HP / Compaq employees and their spouses.

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/05/john_mccain_chief_of_own_vp_se.html


John McCain: Chief of own VP search



For those wondering whether an eminence gris such as Warren Christopher or Dick Cheney will soon head Sen. John McCain's vice presidential selection committee, the answer is yes and no, depending upon whether you think of McCain as a wise old Washington hand.

"He's the chairman of the selection committee," said Charlie Black, referring to the candidate himself, during a lunch with reporters hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

Black said no timetables have been set and staff is uninvolved.

"He is thinking about names," Black said. "He's not talking to any of us about that."

McCain has referred to this as being in the "embryonic stage."

"He'll talk to a great variety of people as he does on all issues and matters of importance," Black said.

Yet Black acknowledged that the choice of a running mate is fraught with meaning for a 71-year-old candidate looking to reassure voters that they will be in good hands if anything should happen to him.

"Every nominee wants to make the best possible selection," he said, adding that they all "want to make sure they were picking somebody who could succeed and handle the job."

McCain is no different in wanting to pick the best person.

"There's always a lot of focus on it,'' Black said. "It's the first big decision a nominee makes.''

That Bush I was going to impress everybody by picking his own VP, which was to be a big surprise, and turned out to be Quayle?

"in January 2008, Fiorina praised Senator McCain, claiming that "John McCain is a man who understands what the role of government should be, and what the role of government should not be."

doesn't understand.

finance. Could swing alot of swing voters back and get republicans to the polls.

Wasn't she fired from HP or was it compaq computer? I remember a big blow-up with Hewlett family over her performance.

From Wikipedia: "Hewlett-Packard's stock jumped 7% on news of her departure". "On January 7, 2004, at a meeting with Congressional members, Fiorina said, "There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore. We have to compete for jobs as a nation. Her statements angered Bay Area workers who felt that low wages overseas encouraged corporations to use less-qualified offshore workers instead of well-qualified locals."

God wouldn't be so good as to give us Carly Fiorina as the VP candidate. I can't believe this is even being seriously considered.

K/R - Good analysis, grantcart

It's the Rethug framing and talking points that are the problem for us, not the possibility of a brokered convention.

in the Clinton campaign. You may very well be right. If not right, then there is some other reason for the change, which at this point I can't think of what it would be.

That when she campaigns hard and dirty, her negatives rise faster than Obama's do.

Are you reading any of his signals or non-signals?

Have any idea what he was saying?

Anyone care?

Hopefully, if HRC goes down, it will help soften the DLC hold on the party ---

and I hope that Dean will retain firmer hold and stay ---

Unless the DNC crushes the DLC out of existence, I don't see Dean really wanting to stay on.. He did what he said he would do..he got a 50-state strategy going, and if Obama does "change the map" and we get out of that crazy "Ohio-Pennsylvania-Florida" bind we have every cycle, he will have done more for us than anyone in recent history..

He might like to go out in a high note and do something else:)

and upon reflection I think it ended a long, long time ago ---

Everyone talking about it has been spreading myth --

First, Carter pulled in all but one Confederate state ---

Two, the GOP have been running serious election scams in Southern States to do steals ---

and Siegelman, I think, is evidence of that ---

and one of the Georgia scandals ---

Since she has gone this far.. Though her recents actions are telling. She will not win North Carolina and she will not win the next big election = Oregon.. I think she has finally seen the light.

HCBC doesn't know what light looks like.

changing direction.

Great post, Grantcart. I hadn't been looking at things this way.

Presidency.

Time will tell.

She has shifted from running against a democrat for the Democratic Nominee spot to running and talking points down the middle of both parties.

There could be another explanation, she has shifted her target to beating both Nominees, R and D.

K&R!

Carville is a political genius and knows numbers and people. I bet he breaks it down for her.

:kick:

thank you for all the work you've done here to bring some sound analysis to current primary issues.

They hate her almost as much as some in GDP!

Not going to happen.

and Bill doing Rush limbaugh. Couple this with her religious ties to Douglas Coe and the "fellowship" and it makes me think she was something nefarious up her sleeve.

:hi:

and that can only mean one thing. :think:

She's running ads in Oregon, and Bill made a swing through there a week or so ago.

Not that his switch will have an affect on the voters -- but it sent an even louder message to the SDs than Richardson, Kerry and Kennedy combined.

I think that the timing of that was the official kill switch to Camp Clinton.

The difference between what they gave Dodd, Kennedy, Richardson and then Joe?

Night and day.

Just listened to that Carville clip. Thought it was excellent, so posted it in the video forum. Excellent explanation of the difference between Populism and Triangulation to a college audience who may not have known the nuances. Candidate neutral, too. Just an insight as to his view on strategy.

Thanks for the find!!

Richardson, as a Governor and former 2008 Pres candidate, nationally has a publicly higher profile while Andrew doesn't. The attacks on Richardson (and his responses) perhaps kept the story in the media longer than it otherwise might have been. While the Clinton camp may have thought that OK since they were trying to diminish Richardson's perceived value to Obama (after all, Richardson was a primary opponent despite his ties to the Clintons), that would not be the case for Joe Andrew, who previously was a declared Clinton delegate who did an about face to support Obama. That was a real SD defection and that was the story that they wouldn't want to prolong in the media with another slang fest.

Additionally, how many Clinton "early adopter" SD's do you think must be having more than second thoughts about their previous declarations for Clinton? The campaign knew that not only were they trying to convince undeclared SD's to either go for Clinton or at least not announce for Obama, they also had to keep their previously declared SD's on the reservation. Trashing Joe Andrew would not have helped them IMO. As others have noted, given the math, the audience the Clinton campaign is really playing to are the SD's. I suspect that the Clinton camp thought publicly trashing Andrew would hurt them more than help them.

She is no longer saying In it to win it.
All the way to Denver, those have been gone for a while now
On another note
the Carviell's have sold their DC Home.

because YIKES!

LOL!

``We'll have a unified Democratic party once we have a nominee, I have no doubt about that,'' she said

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=ahlNWF1x5fR8&refer=home

THey aren't taking it to the Convention.

Another point:

She would be wise to exit before the Superdelegates are forced to embarrass her. He last "good day" coming is when WV votes. The other days she will lose or split with Obama. WV votes alone on 5/13. No other days can be spun as successes. I don't think P.R. will get much attention.

May 6th, if she loses both, she'll give her concession speech that night.
If she wins just IN, Obama's blow out in NC will get the attention, and he'll win the delegates on the night.

She'd drop soon after, IMO. SHe doesn't want to force the SD's to do it. THey've made the calls and are well aware of the score.

And one of Hillary's big supporters from COngress, sorry can't remember which one, said the same thing on the Stephanie Miller Show on Friday.

the big names seem to be busy taking naps, or polishing their Obama for President pins.

Broder recently spoke to an old friend in the Clinton campaign to ask a question: "Does the Clinton camp still see any realistic way she can deny Barack Obama the Democratic nomination without blowing up the party?"

BooMan's comments here: http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2008/5/4/113136/7425

Broder's article is here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/can_hillary_win_without_blowin.html

telling is the Clinton insider who states "only Obama can make her winning seem right". If that is true then they now realise that he is not going to cooperate in that.

That's about what I have been hoping for as a good outcome. Thanks for laying out the details so well.

If she had a good month, she'll definitely put it out there tomorrow. Otherwise, the caterers don't get paid again.

It would be more sensible if all the Dems would quit beating up on Obama-who is going to be our nominee after all of this is over and start working to defeat McCain-our GE opponent. Not to mention all the money that is being spent to keep this primary going that could be spent on the GE. I'm not understanding the logic of this situation. :dilemma:

her campaign (and her supporters Scaife, Fox, talk radio)are behind the media blast against Obama.

I doubt she will quit after In/Sc. It appears as of today she MAY win In and will lose Sc. My thinking is she's in until at least the last primary. Her and Bill actually (I believe) think they can squeeze this one out.

In the past candidates never quit because they had a statistically remote chance of winning they always quit because they ran out of money and were deep in debt.

What made this primary season drag on was the unusual circumstance of two very well funded Democratic candidates.

....her campaign is totally tapped out. She may in fact quit after winning In and losing Sc, but I don't see it. Oh, by the way I am an Obama supporter so I am not supporting Hillary with my comments, in case you were wondering.

She said that she raised $ 10 mil in one day and then doesn't disclose what should have been record numbers for April.

She can't buy ads in Indiana so she goes to her maxed out donors and raises money in an illegal ad buy through her 527.

There is every indication that she is in fact deeply in debt. Of course big wins on Tuesday would change that, but if she doesn't have double wins her ability to raise more money will be minimized.

I am not predicting that she will quit next week simply that she is laying the ground work if it is necessary.

the last dirty slime shot.

Get ready to rumble!

which leads me to believe something is up

Annie Oakley will be coming out tonight, Monday AM at the latest.

She doesn't really have to do much dirty work, the SPINNERS in the media are all in her back pocket.

The SPINNERS all got the Memo.

in this campaign from the very beginning.. Has poured money, sweat and tears into it, and I hope she will finish... I don't think that she can win, but I believe in her right to see this thing to it's conclusion....

5/6 or 5/13 after that it will be a series of states that she is unlikely to do well in Oregon, SD and Montana. I'd rather she left on a good night with a split decision than get pounded into the ground.

She will probably tone down though after Tuesday.

A double win might say otherwise but it looks more and more like Indiana is going to go to her slightly. (A badly needed victory and likely what she has dumped a good chunk of the warchest into) And she MAY keep Obama to single digits in NC. (Hopefully not tho)

She is likely expecting boosts from wins in 2 upcoming states. Tho the take the pundits give to that will be interesting because they depend on alot of factors.

And by the time those are done we are so close to the end that we mise will figure out what June has to say.

We need to be prepared to endure another month of this. A month that we need to work our hardest for victory because we need to try to get some wins in for Obama.

Now we know that multiple Supers have stated that they will endorse at the end of the primary season for the winner in pledged and a good many have said they will NOT overturn the pledged so they will perhaps go ahead and switch as well. It will likely be enough for Obama to go to the convention with leads across the board.

And because of multiple stage conventions in june Clinton will only be trying her luck if she goes forward but it does seem likely.

Carville uses as his metaphor - but I think she is preparing a path out if she craps out.

Have you read the book "Red Storm Rising" perhaps?

The Barack Obama Crowd Song - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pgz_mu2FBBg

she's in it to win, this is her endgame, NOT some sort of setup for a graceful exit.

This is the Clinton Machine you are talking about.

I don't know why they "couldn't" find something to make it stick, but at least they started the process.

you would actually have to have documented evidence that it had a real effect and that would entail people clearly stating that they broke the election law.

there was no disagreement on the thread that it is indeed illegal and a fine will eventually be forthcoming - could take a year.

But they might actually have to shut up then about Wright - why cover something important when you can cover a complete non-issue?

there kind of a conflict of interest because ah


Well in a word they are whores and they have a paying customer, they are not going to point out to the customer that they are breaking the law.

I long for a real media, not a whore as you so appropriately described them.

Just like the "pandering" to Guam about voting in the General Election. The OP doesn't tell you that was Obama's position as well.

She loses Guam by 7 votes and she was expected to lose -- predicted by the Obama camp -- by 11%. They split the pledged delegates 2-2. Yep, that is real writing.

Where are your links to the "recent polls"?

Why CAN'T Hillary close the deal. She was the anointed one. She was the front runner from before the moment she announced her candidacy. And yet, she can't close the deal.

Maybe we're not buyin' what she's sellin'.

.... Oh well - on to the McCain Follies!

James Carville: "If she gave him one of her cojones, they'd both have two."

I hope this ends all whining about sexism from the Clinton camp. All gutter comments about Hillary's vagina are fair game, after this. Unfortunately. Not a good day for feminists.

Indiana and North Carolina voters, end this now. Please.
Stop the Drama, Vote Obama.

to boost my spirits. I so want Obama to be the nominee. Please keep me positive, thanks.

that if events force her to do so she isn't going to have to explain a lot of her most recent messages.

continues on her relentless path to occupy the White House. De ja vue Iraq! Am really beginning to dislike her as a person. Thanks for the response.

whether her toned-down approach is related to finally accepting the math and seeing the need for a more conciliatory approach, or whether it's a reaction to recent polls which have shown that the public is growing weary of the divisiveness of the campaign. While I'd love to believe the former is the case, you can't rule out a carefully calculated retooling of her campaign as a last ditch effort to increase her appeal in the remaining states.

I don't disagree that if her fund-raising were through the roof and on a sustainable upswing, that her campaign would be using it as a sales pitch to point to a change in the primary's momentum.

Good post as always... :)

I have a feeling this will be over soon. Just a gut.

.

thanks so much!

It's because Dean just told her Obama has to be her VP.

That's the smartest thing she can do. You never know if some other crap comes along to do with Wright, Ayres, Rezko, or another Chicago type political scandal.

I used to work in Chicago politics and if YOU aren't dirty - someone else you may have dealt with along the way could be dirty - and sometimes you may not even know about it until it's too late.

I know what I am talking about - which of course isn't true.

We could all hope, but I'm just saying.

now the analysis is completely speculative, obviously but it seems as if two things are certain 1) The financial problems of the Clinton campaign continue and 2) Clinton has changed her stump speech tone.

It looked that Hillary was giving her farewell speech tonight. She was somber looking and thanking everyone without her usual bitchiness.

How great it would be to see her end this messy situation. I know she's gotta be upset and not really wanting to believe it's over - but it is. I hope she can move on and be supportive.



new Obama items weekly!
www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable

That would be nice.

She's tired and so am I.

I'm tired of the rabid march backwards into racism, and the so helpful corporate media so willing to help her out on this. It scares me....and she has caused much damage to the party, no matter how she retreats now. If she thinks that Black folks have a short memory, she is out of her mind. That's the beauty about us; we don't forget shit....and certainly not the shit she has been pulling. That, she can take to the bank. Her and Bill.

She has about half the Democratic Party on her side and he is going to need the votes imo. Even if he wins the nomination, he has not won the GE. Let's not get too excited when he does get the nomination. There is still a lot of work to be done to encourage Clinton supporters to vote for him. But, I am sure that Obama supporters will be too busy cheering his win of the nomination to bother with worrying about such things as beating McCain.

We're not going to share with the rest of the country!


Besides, we really need her here to keep up the good fight against coal powered energy.

I think her campaign will be suspended when she runs out of money, or on June 3, whichever comes first.

Elizabeth Drew had an interesting article in Politico about Demo congresspeople (also supers, of course). They are planning on endorsing Obama, when the time is right.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9862.html

She says there are 3 reasons why supers will endorse Obama:

"(a) Hillary Rodham Clinton is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting Republican in November, and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing Democrats down the ticket – i.e., themselves, or, for party leaders, the sizeable majorities they hope to gain in the House and the Senate in November.

(b) To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base of the Democratic Party, and, in the words of one leading Democrat, “The superdelegates are not going to switch their votes and jeopardize the future of the Democratic Party for generations.” Such a move, he said, would also disillusion the new, mostly young, voters who have entered into politics for the first time because of Obama, and lose the votes of independents who could make the critical difference in November.

(c) Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost the Democrats numerous seats."


I agree with this thinking, and have felt this way for a while. AND I'm CERTAIN that the Clintons know these realities.

I've felt for a while that she is running to force herself onto the ticket as VP. I hope that Obama and the supes resist that notion, due to reason a. It will be hard enough for Obama to win, without her toxic presence on the ballot.

No Clinton or No Chance.

Please check out my first thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5819618

IN and NC Democrats, please help avert an ugly controversy by way of Puerto Rico

of Obama supporters, I think that it misses its target audience. You want to post this on a Clinton heavy message board for better effect.

Polls that show your candidate with an insurmountable lead over the opponent are the classic way of achieving this same result.

no wonder your world is filled with conspiracies.

if she is not the nominee, I wouldn't count on her supporting Obama either. She'll probably endorse McCain. McCain will get eaten up in the next few months, Ron Paul will gain popularity.

The Clintons aren't going to give up till they use every card in their sleeve. If the negative campaign has stopped, IMO, it is because their polls and focus groups showed them that further negative tactics would backfire.

It's true that she is out of money, I believe she'd be looking at McCain's campaign and its resurrection. They will try to do the same thing. She talks about fighting for the people. She's proving that she'll fight, the question is whether the Clintons can fight for anybody but the Clintons.