7/26 KERRY: 97.19% WIN PROBABILITY, 327 EV, 52.90% of the vote

TruthIsAll

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Mon Jul-26-04 10:28 AM
Original message

7/26 KERRY: 97.19% WIN PROBABILITY, 327 EV, 52.90% of the vote

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2066636

7/26 KERRY: 97.19% WIN PROBABILITY, 327 EV, 52.90% of the vote

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apnu

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Mon Jul-26-04 10:30 AM
Response to Original message

1. What's odd is CNN says that kerry has a lock of...

... 195 EV and W something like 210! (mentioned during an interview with Liberman)

:wtf:

Where are they getting their data? I don't recall the souce... maybe I forgot it or they didn't say it... still...

:wtf: :wtf: :wtf:

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AndyTiedye

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Mon Jul-26-04 11:08 AM
Response to Original message

2. This Asssmes 70% of Undecideds go to Kerry

This ignores the effects of "terra alerts", their efforts to stir up
hatred of gays, Muslims, etc., and the barrage of anti-Kerry propaganda
that they will see on TV and in church.

It essentially assumes that the Bush* campaign will sit on its hands
from now until Election Day, instead of outspending us 2-1 during that
time. Due to the timing of the conventions, Kerry has to make his $75M
last twice as long as Bush*. That's really going to hurt.

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Jul-26-04 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. Andy, how the hell can you expect me to model all that?

Of course, anything can happen. That is NOT the point.

Judge the metdodology on its own merits, please.

There's an old saying:

K I S S

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Jul-26-04 05:56 PM
Response to Original message

4. Movin' on up

tia

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HalfManHalfBiscuit

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Mon Jul-26-04 06:25 PM
Response to Original message

5. I liked this part:

With 50% of the other/undecided vote, the probability that Kerry gets >50% of the total vote is 80%.

So even with this very pessimistic assumption, we still look pretty good. Nice job - I hope you are right.

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