Anyone saying that Obama CAN'T win, doesn't want him to win. It's transparent.

They're saying it out of pique because they're chosen candidate didn't make it. Or because they just can't stand him, or can't stand Obama supporters or whatever.

Because he can win. That doesn't mean he will, but he definitely has a good shot at it. Here's why:

1) Organization
2) Strategy
3) New voters
4) A much heavier AA vote
5) New voters
6) More money
7) A poor economy
8) The continuing deterioration of Iraq
9) McCain's ties to Bush
10)McCain is a weak candidate
11)The Repub party is in poor shape
12)Teflon- Obama has it.
13)Charisma- Something else Obama has.

All of those factors help Obama. Many would help any dem nominee. Declaring that Obama can't win is petulant wishful thinking or fear. Neither make for decent appraisal of the situation.

Yes he can!

Win, that is.

and not in a sarcastic way

Will he? Well I have my own feeling about the Nov. vote and why people vote. I have heard a life time of odd stories of why people vote for some one or do not vote for some one and it is not pretty. Reason hardly comes into it.

Saying I don't think he'll win because of x,y and z is different from saying he can't win.

That is the problem. I do not think we can know that until AFTER the vote is in. I want to think that people my age will look at the mans mind and not his color but I do have bad feeling that I am on the open minded side of life and not every one is the same. I am saying my age as that is the age that seem to vote in large percent and we are the people who were around when King was around. Some of the things these people did to people of color, is not pretty and it is hard to change ones thinking. It was a scary time living in a small town in SC in the late 60's and being a Yankee. My kids had a very hard time in school just watching it. Some of those screw balls even turned over school buses and the state police moved in to the schools. My guess is that I am much more open minded than those people who are still around voting. Even if Obama would be good for these people I feel they would not vote for him. I hope I am wrong.

Of course we can win.

yes we can.

Other possibilities do come quickly to mind....

"More Wars! Less Jobs! McCain '08"

Saying he can't win is not the same as saying "I don't think he will win because of....". It's an absolutist statement lacking a foundation.

One likely reason is simply the press of argument in the primary season. 'Electability' is something many prize, so saying 'the other guy can't win in the general' is an argument many will employ in favor of their own preferred candidate.

Any number of people may be of the sincere conclusion that a candidate will actually fail to win the general election if he or she is the standard bearer. They are under no obligation to list their reasons for this belief every time they express themselves. People are not required to write whole paragraphs each time they post, after all. And it is worth noting that often people who do provide their reasons come under ad hominem attack over them. A person who says, for example, he or she thinks a number of white voters will shy off voting for a Black candidate for President, which is hardly an unreasonable view in light of certain facts of U.S. history and social and political life, will often meet accusations he or she is a racist for saying this. A person who feels certain attack lines the enemy is likely to adopt will prove effective, will find, if he or she says this, that accusations he or she is peddling these attacks or agrees with them will begin to fly. A person who expresses fears the much vaunted 'youth vote' will evaporate, as it often has in past elections where it was cried up in advance, can expect to be attacked as several varieties of croaker and defeatist. Given these likely reactions, many may simply feel it is easier and less trouble all around to just state the conclusion they have drawn, and leave it at that.

"More Wars! Less Jobs! McCain '08"

The title was explained fully in the text. Again, the absolutist "can't" is a statement that allows for no interpretation but that it's impossible for Obama to win. That's patently ridiculous on its face. You wish to staunchly defend such silly statements, have a dandy time doing so. I have consistently stated that it's absurd to say that either Hillary or Obama can't win, and I think the motivation for saying such a thing is firmly rooted in petty partisanship.

:evilgrin:

K & R

He is unbeatable in the general election barring something huge. Corporate media tried like Hell with Pastorgate. Repukes and corporate Dems are terrified. Change is heading toward Washington and the only thing that they have to stop it with now is Grandpa "My Friends" DubyaII McCain.

But he probably won't - he's having to go through a dragged-out primary, the Republicans always try to "define" the Democrat, and Obama is a blank sheet of paper, McCain is a formidable opponent who's being underestimated and money can't buy elections.


It's possible, but highly unlikely that he'll win - he needs to run the campaign of the century and a fresh McCain scandal couldn't hurt - easier said than done.

If he gets the nomination, it is only half the battle. He has not won the war and McCain's numbers are really strong. He has been running around Michigan the last few days and the crowds are going wild for McCain. You are seeing this through "rose colored glasses". This is not a done deal by far. It would have been better if it were Romney or someone like him that was nominated for the GOP. But, people think McCain is more independent and a maverick. He is not hated by the independent voters and he could win the White House.