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Question: How Much Pop. Vote Would Hillary Net With A 40 Point West Virginia Win?

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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:32 PM
Original message
Question: How Much Pop. Vote Would Hillary Net With A 40 Point West Virginia Win?
The latest West Virginia poll shows her up by 40 there (Clinton 63, Obama 23), so I was wondering how much popular vote she would net if this were to hold?

How many registered democrats are in West Virginia, and what's the likely turnout going to be?

Obama's going to Oregon tonight and he'll be there this weekend, so I'm not sure that he'll even be spending any time in West Virgina before Tuesday.

Does anybody have this information?

Here's the poll: http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200805050638
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:34 PM
Response to Original message
1. Still not enough to make a damn dent.
:hi:
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hokies4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
2. Most reports estimate about 100,000
If Hillary wins by huge landslides in WV and KY and suppresses Obama's victories to small single digits in states he's heavily favored.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Do you know how many registered dems are in West Virginia? I haven't found this.
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hokies4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:42 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. You're wasting your time
the new Hilmetric is 2209 delegate totals. MSNBC's Chuck Todd has some information on vote estimates in the remaining states. Hillary +100,000 popular votes for the remaining contests is considered to be on the generous side. Just not enough contests and voters left for Hillary.
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cui bono Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:39 PM
Response to Original message
3. Not enough. She has to win over 60% in every remaining primary to pull ahead.


Not going to happen.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Are you talking about delegates or popular vote?
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hokies4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:40 PM
Response to Original message
4. Didn't you get the new Hillary TPS report?
Popular vote is so 90s. The new metric is resetting the delegate total at 2209. Come on, try to keep up with the changing goal posts. :rofl:
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Aloha Spirit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #4
29. Where's my red swingline stapler?
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:43 PM
Response to Original message
7. West Virginia has a total of 28 delegates.
Edited on Thu May-08-08 04:43 PM by flpoljunkie
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. I'm asking about popular vote. I know she can't win the delegate count.
She's not even trying to win delegates anymore. She wants Michigan and Florida seated because of popular vote. That's metric she wants to use. I just want to know how much pop. vote she might net on Tuesday.
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #9
20. That's about a third of IN's delegates.
Edited on Thu May-08-08 05:12 PM by Aya Reiko
So I would guess WV may have 425K voters, max. But it's not expected to be a close race, so the numbers going to the polls could be smaller than that.

Louisiana has 56 delegates, but only 384K people came out to vote in February.
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caligirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:48 PM
Response to Original message
10. Last night I think Chuck Todd or Joe Johns said she needed 70+% of votes
Edited on Thu May-08-08 04:53 PM by caligirl
from here on out. its delegates that matter. She will not get enough of the votes in any state to over take his popular vote because of the 200,000 +margin he got out of NC and her low 22,000 vote margin in IN. She had to get huge numbers in populkar vote in both states to change the game. Its over mathematically.


Read what DEDE Myers had to say here>http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5890034

She won't come anywhere near closing in on his pop vote lead and DEDE,former Clinton press sec, has a nice paragraph, short and sweat, on the numbers.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:48 PM
Response to Original message
11. VERY Crappy poll
Taken on Saturday, before the primaries, and only 300 voters were polled with a very high MOE of 6.
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Austinitis Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
12. See here
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

Make sure you set for NC and IN. I don't think it's going to happen, though...
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
13. It won't be that lopsided. Probably 65-35 and if 200,000 vote it would look like this:
130,000 to 70,000 so a 60,000 vote victory.

He will take Oregon by (I predict) 60-40 and so he will have a 200,000 vote victory there.
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Hamlette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
14. It is predicted WV will have 400,000 democratic votes for this primary
or that was the projection last week. I'm wondering how many will show knowing it's over.

Obama is up by 7-800,000 now.

Here is what is expected in the remaining states:

WV 400K
KY 500K
OR 600K
SD 100K
MT 125K
PR 900K

Just over 2.6 million. If she took 60% in all of those races she's tie him in popular vote.

It won't happen. She'll lose Oregon and probably SD and MT too. I
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Intersting, thanks. That's what I was looking for. Looks like Puerto Rico is her best hope left.
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Hamlette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. I got the numbers from TPM in one of their videos
I looked for it a couple of days ago and didn't readily find it but at the time (yes, I'm a junkie) I wrote the numbers down.

And yes, PR is her best hope but I have mixed feelings about a territory that can't even vote in the GE deciding our nominee.


Hopefully it won't come to that.

Here's a great site for up to date numbers:

www.realclearpolitics.com
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aquarius dawning Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
15. Looks like her popular vote total could increase by up to 465,000
if she takes 70% of the approximately 665,000 registered Democrats in WV. They're mostly "tobacco chewers" though so they don't count.

http://www.wvsos.com/elections/history/registration/2008PrimaryOfficialVR.pdf
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datopbanana Donating Member (938 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. lol. no
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gcomeau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #15
27. So you're basing projections on...
A 70% win in a state Obama hasn't campaigned in yet... but will?

While assuming ONE HUNDRED PERCENT turnout in a primary where most people are coming to the realization that it's all over already?

Yeah, we're not in fantasy land here. Not at all.
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aquarius dawning Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-09-08 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #27
31. I did no such thing ass.
The OP asked a question and I was kind enough to answer it. I said it could happen, not that it would happen. I will say that the people I work with from WV wonn't be voting for Obama and from what they've told me, very few people in that state will. Looks to me like chewing tobacco makes you pretty damn smart.

And whoever owns post #24, you must have really pissed me off because you're ignored.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:00 PM
Response to Original message
16. makes no difference.. primaries are about delegates
and the supers will put Obama over whatever "top" there will be:)
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lojasmo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
17. Don't know. Doesn't matter. EOM
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MrCTLib Donating Member (24 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. ....
A Democratic Strategist said there will be over 1 million voters in Puerto Rico and she said Hillary will get 800,000 or more of the votes.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. In the latest Puerto Rico poll she was only up by 9. Obama has the Governor, though he's in trouble.
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lojasmo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #21
30. Haha. Who cares?
PR can't even vote in the general. How does that fit in with her already spurious 'popular vote' bullshit?
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:11 PM
Response to Original message
19. I would like him to finish with such a lead that he could seat MI and FL as is, and still be ahead..
by over 100,000 votes and 100 or more delegates.

That would end this without a fight.
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
25. west va info: around 821,000 are eligible to vote in the Dem primary
http://mobile.newsandsentinel.com/page/wap.home/?id=504893

Around 665,000 Democrats and 156,000 independents.
If turnout was 50 percent, which would be pretty high, then you'd have around 410,000 participating. If HRC gets 70 percent, she'll have 287,000 and Obama, with 30 percent would get 123,000, for a net pick up of 164,000 for HRC.

That's probably her best (and Obama's worst) case. I'm willing to go out on a limb and predict she won't net that many popular votes.
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malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. That sounds about right. Thanks a lot.
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-08-08 06:21 PM
Response to Original message
28. With 17% TBP (same as PA), she would net 123,218 votes ...
adjusted for difference in percent of population who are registered Dems.

... as far as I know. :7
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