Why KERRY Will Win!!!

Firstly, I SHOULD temper the subject line. The race is still up in the air, but at this point I'm more than ready to put money on the line in saying John Kerry will beat Bush.

Let us review Bush's electoral appeal. In 2000, Bush ran against a weak opponent in Al Gore - an opponent who lacked a disciplined message, who had trouble staying consistent, who hated campaigning, was widely ridiculed by the press, had a personal failing in never being too sure of himself, and who lost all the debates. Bush ran as a centrist, a "Compassionate Conservative" and grabbed a large chunk of Clinton-voters in a politically-disinterested climate and with a third-party challenger grabbing votes from his opponent (Al Gore).

And yet, Bush *still* lost.

This year, Bush has a record. He won't fool anybody into thinking he's a centrist. Nader isn't even a factor. Iraq is in deep shit, the economy's sour, the social safety net is being wrecked, his approval ratings are below 50%.

And this now when he's facing a candidate who, despite the application of the "Massachusetts Liberal" tag, is a much more disciplined and sure-footed candidate than Al Gore. A candidate who is an even better debater, a far more confidant candidate, and someone who shines when under pressure. The fact is, great as Al Gore was, John Kerry is a much better campaigner - FAR stronger than he's given credit for. Add to that the fact that the Democratic Party is strongly united against him, more than half the country has already decided they don't like Bush and the fact that demographic trends with the Hispanic and professional populations increasing --- the race is Kerry's to lose.

And that should lower some of the pressure for tonight too. I fully expect John Kerry to deliver one hell of a speech. But even if he is merely adequate - if he does merely competently and does adequately at the debates, I think he'll still win.

Even allowing for the fact that incumbents usually pick up some voters they didn't pick up last time around, Kerry's still favored. Almost ALL Gore voters seem set to vote for Kerry. Sure a few hundred thousand may switch, but based on the polls, it appears like a far greater number of Nader and Bush supporters from 2000 will vote Kerry.

Again, we can't get overly confidant. We have to stay vigilant. But a victory in November is very much in sight.

moving to Bush, but I disagree that Gore was a terrible candidate in 2000.

I liked Gore and he would have made an excellent President, but he wasn't the best campaigner and I think Kerry definitely out-paces him in that respect.

There was a large number of people who did not vote at all in 2000. This year the percentage should eclipse 2000.

So, of the new people voting this year, how many do you think are motivated to vote for Bush? For Kerry?

Food for thought.

that Gore lost any of them. I've judged a lot of debates and was appalled that anyone would think Bush was anything but pathetic. Gore was all over him factually and in his delivery. In fact, it was Gore's obvious superiority that turned some people against him. The public didn't want to see him beat up on Bush. Remember, Bush's standard for performance was simply not to make a terrible gaffe.

Likewise, I think the DNC is wise not to beat up on Bush at the convention. There's still that element out there that would look sideways at that.

But remember that the media spun it so that Bush *won*. That became the storyline and perceptions become reality. So Gore did, in effect, *lose* the debates.

To this day, that still disgusts me.

Don't put anything past the Bushies. I'm still anticipating an "October Surprise" particularly if the polls stay even or Kerry pulls ahead. Heads up. :eyes: