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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:10 AM
Original message
West Virginia and Kentucky ?
There seems to be quite a bit of anxiety in the Obama camp with the recent polls out of WV and KY. Some of the latest polls show Hillary up by 43% in WV! And over 30% in KY. Those are huge numbers for small states. I seriously doubt that she will reach either of those numbers but she might?

We should recall that Hillary won Pennsylvania, a large state by over 200,000 votes. Obama won NC by over 200,000 votes. I would not expect any huge numbers like that out of either WV or KY. If Hillary can win by 50,000 votes in either state, she will be lucky. That would net her about 100,000 votes. Obama could get a good portion of that back with Oregon. No doubt, Hillary will make a small gain in the popular vote but not enough to sway the election. She will gain a minimal amount of delegates.

However, Puerto Rico could be more fruitful for her if she is lucky? With 60-some delegates, she could do better there with the popular vote and the delegate count than with either KY or WV. However, she will still be far short in the delegate count. She is depending on the popular vote to appeal to the remaining super delegates.

Obama could make a large dent in Hillary's lead in KY by appealing to the state's love for basketball. Their love for the game transcends racism or the stereotypes that have been portrayed. If Obama put on a UK basketball cap and announced that he believed KY would win another national championship before his first term was over, he would win the hearts of many basketball fans. It may sound trivial but it is very important to Kentucky where basketball is a religion. He could point out that KY has won more games and more national championships than either NC or Indiana. Maybe shoot a few hoops with the UK players. It would do more for his image and vote totals than any speech he might give. I say this as a student of UK basketball history and a native of the state.
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:23 AM
Response to Original message
1. who gives a fuck the race is OVER!!!!
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. No.
It's not over until Hillary says it's over. Hillary won't say it is over until there is no more hope. It is going to the end, it appears.
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Me. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Interesting That It's Still All About Her
How about it's over when the math says it's over and the math doesn't give a damn what Hillary thinks?
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marylanddem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Won't it be great to not have to look at those pantsuits & pearls

strutting around?
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Me. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. I Don't Have A Problem With The Pantsuits
But I will be thrilled not to ever run across a clip of her cadence speak again. Kerry used to do the same thing and I always wondered why he couldn't just talk to people. It seems that both their oratory style was lifted right out of the 19th century.
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marylanddem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:25 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Agreed.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:47 AM
Response to Original message
6. Hillary needs 68% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests to "close the deal"
Anything less than a SEVENTY-TWO point margin of victory will NOT help her beat Obama. Even 30% of VW and KY would set her even farther back.

:headbang:
rocknation
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 07:53 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. What deal?
The most popular vote or the most delegates??
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. The delegates. 86% of the vote in ALL SIX of the remaining contests
is the only way she can win fair and square.

:headbang:
rocknation
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. Typo--she needs 86% of the vote
She needed 68% of the vote in IN. Because she didn't get it, she needs 86% now. My bad.

:headbang:
rocknation
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
11. No one is even worried about this OUTSIDE of DU. Its the echo chamber and the
desperate screams of her last few supporters trying to keep this dead race alive.
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