**** Saturday Super Delegate Update Thread*** Obama +1 Updates Below

As compiled by DemconWatch - the most authoritative source of all things related to delegates
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/add-on-superdelegate-selection-schedule.html



1)Utah's Add-On Delegate Kristi Cumming

As advised yesterday Obama was a lock on getting the add-on in Utah:

Utah selected it's add-on superdelegate last night: Kristi Cumming. We know that Utah Chairman Wayne Holland, an Obama supporter, had previously announced that the add-on would be an Obama supporter, and we have received confirmation from the Utah Democratic Party that Cumming will be supporting Obama.


Today's Add On

Massachusetts 2 5/10/2008 Elected by the State Party Committee
Ohio 2 5/10/2008 Selected by the State Executive Committee

While Clinton won both states by reasonable margins they weren't blow outs. It will be interesting to see if these states will want to maintain harmony within the state party by splitting their add ons or by sending all four to Clinton.

Note: In calculating for he Huckabee Index by Phrigndumass the Super Delegate from Utah was expected but none of the add ons from Clinton states have been - even though in the past they have split (and in the case of CA with 5 almost certainly will be). In the past Maryland split 1-1, New Jersey did not.

It will be a telling indicator on Senator Clinton's chances. If she does not take all four of these add on super delegates it really will indicate that even in the states where she won she is not maximizing her delegate potential.

(again by demconwatch
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/add-on-superdelegate-selection-schedule.html


SUPER DELEGATE SUMMARY


Senator Clinton 270.5

Senator Obama 270

Obama now leads in Senators 18-13 (includes DC) Governors 14-11 Congresspeople 84-80

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html








PELOSI UPDATE

Senator Obama magic number 36.5

Senator Clinton magic number 200.5


NOMINATION 2024 UPDATE

Senator Obama magic number 165

Senator Clinton magic number 327.5


DELEGATES LEFT

Super Delegates 255.5 (out of 795)

Pledged Delegates 217 (out of 3253)

Total Delegates left 472.5 (out of 4048)

Thanks for starting this thread :hi:

this information to us on the Democratic Underground.

It's a good day to be a democrat!

Nominated.

Good morning, Dominion Purveyor of Snark. You're up early for a Saturday!

:bounce:

Today is a no snark day

Had a good meeting last night










































gotcha

Yer killin me.

(tattoo appointment later today!)

We need a credible source that shows 276 superdelegates for Obama. He's at 274 now.

FURTHER UPDATE: My ass hurts. (lol)

ONE MORE!

:woohoo:

(I have my post ready to go when this happens!)

:woohoo:
rocknation

BTW Obama has 4.5 more delegates than Demconwatch and so you will see some accounts state that Obama has in fact taken the lead.

Demconwatch is the only one that links every endorsement to a specific statement and allows you to make sure you don't count the same delegate twice, so there number is a little behind the others because their standards are higher.

In other words, can he clinch the delegate lead on superdelegates alone? According to his web site, he needs only 33.

:shrug:
rocknation

either in Kentucky or Oregon.

After that he will need about 100 Super Delegates.

There are press reports that quote unnamed sources that say 120 Super Delegates leaning to Obama will move at that time or very shortly thereafter.

Given that Obama added 10 yesterday I would guess that is an accurate picture.

Over by Oregon.

(The next day May 21 will be a difficult day for Clinton as she has to release her fund raising for April - it will reveal the campaign lied about $ 10 million day and the true nature of Clinton campaign finances will be there for all the SDs to see. I predict Senator Clinton will 'suspend' her race after her victory in Kentucky, and before Oregon's vote is announced - Oregon votes by mail so there is no same day impact on Oregon voters.)

The report you speak of MUST be released on the 20th of each month (that is, before midnight of the 21st) unless it's not a business day. It was released on the 21st of last month because the 20th fell on a Sunday.

If you're referring to the $10M she allegedly raised right after the PA primary, what's the problem? According to her April report, she was about $10M in debt (not including what she'd loaned herself). So it will easy to see if she told the truth--her maximum balance should be zero!

:rofl:
rocknation

:bounce:
rocknation

We have delegates, super delegates and now add on delegates.

They are chosen at each state's convention. IIRC there are about 76 total add-ons, and 53 remain to be chosen. I've seen some threads where some have been misled by the term "add-on" and thought that they were in addition to the total number of super delegates, which stands at 795 right now. In actuality, the add-on super delgates are included within that total number of 795.

As apart of the 795 Super Delegates 81 (Six are from MI and FL and are not yet counted) were to be postitions added on late in the process in the same way that the other Super Delegates are added - by state committee.

The reason was two fold

1) To give the Super Delegates a reflection of how their states performed in the primary. For example no one in Utah expected Obama to be the overwhelming favorite a year ago when the Super Delegates were chosen from state leaders. By adding them on now it gives the Super Delegate a more realistic reflection of current opinion in the state.

2) If the state has a VIP that was not included in the delegation they could be added on now. For example if there was a very popular state senator that backed a candidate and lost but was still considered the likely nominee for a statewide position -governor for example - he/she could be added.


Again these are SDs and don't change the SD overall numbers. When people complain why don't SDs just make up their mind one of the reasons is that some of them are not even selected yet. Some of these add on Super Delegates 26 for Obama and 20 for Senator Clinton were so well known to be 'allocated' for a candidate we used them in calculating the 'Huckabee Index'. Maine party officials have, for example, stated that they have no idea who the add on delegate is but he/she will be for Obama.

In some cases the add on SDs have been chosen but not added because the official date has not arrived.


So far add on Super Delegates

Senator Obama 15

Senator Clinton 9

Full details on the schedule and stats of add on delegates can be found here

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/add-on-superdelegate-selection-schedule.html

I hope President Obama, as nominal head of the party, gets someone on making changes to this nutty system, it's rather Byzantine and needs simplification.

I love Saturday mornings. :kick:

Do either you or phrigndumass have a list compiled of the add-ons with the dates and probability of their endorsements? I see at DCW there are 51 left to be chosen, excluding the two from MI.

Thanks for the update.:hi:

It looks like about 10-13 of these add-ons may go into Obama's column by the end of the primary season on 6/3, and maybe 8 by 5/20. Then figuring a lowball of 57 PD's from WV, KY, and OR, he'd need about 100 SD's in his column by 5/20 to end it that day. That would be wonderful. Seems unlikely, tho, unless he keeps getting 10 new ones a day between now and then.

I guess I can wait until June, but the sooner this is over, the better. Don't know how much more of this we can all stand.

DCW has a page on them also (which was in part a reaction to DU and our interest in the Pelosi Delegates)

A lot more agree but have not annuonced. Donna Brazille and Jimmy Carter for example

And then there is alot of band wagoners that will join in.

And don't forget that there are a lot of Clinton SDs that endorsed her in the begining but live in districts that went overwhelming Obama in the primary. They will also look for an excuse to move.

Utah 1 5/9/2008
Colorado 1 5/17/2008
Kansas 1 5/17/2008
Alaska 1 5/23/2008
Georgia 2 5/24/2008
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008
Mississippi 1 5/31/2008
Maine 1 6/1/2008
Minnesota 2 6/7/2008
Vermont 1 6/7/2008
Montana 1 6/8/2008
Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008
Idaho 1 6/14/2008
Iowa 1 6/14/2008
Virginia 2 6/14/2008
Washington 2 6/15/2008
North Carolina 2 6/21/2008
Oregon 1 6/21/2008
South Dakota 1 6/21/2008
Nebraska 1 6/21/2008

Massachusetts 2 5/10/2008 Elected by the State Party Committee
Ohio 2 5/10/2008 Selected by the State Executive Committee

Is there a reason to count Clinton's?

:7

like a milkshake

does anyone know why DCW, CNN, AP and NBC all have different numbers for the SDs that are pledged? It doesn't make sense to me.

the reason DCW is so useful is they list them all name by name so your sure that your not double counting.

Obama's site is probably the most reliable because they have inside information but its just easier to use DCW because they are objective.

Obama Release on Two Virgin Island Superdelegate EndorsementsTwo Virgin Island Superdelegates Endorse Barack Obama

Former Clinton Superdelegate Kevin Rodriquez switches to back Obama

Chicago, IL – Virgin Island superdelegates Carole Burke and Kevin Rodriquez endorsed Barack Obama today. Rodriquez switched his endorsement citing Obama’s ability to unite the Democratic Party and win the White House:

“While I have great respect for Senator Clinton, today I am announcing my support for Barack Obama. Senator Obama has brought a new generation and energy into the democratic process and the Democratic Party. He has shown he can connect with Democrats, Republicans and Independents across this country, whether we live on the mainland or an island. Senator Obama’s judgment to lead, courage to tell the truth and commitment to working men and women make him the best candidate to lead this country forward.”

274 superdelegates have endorsed Barack Obama and 122th have endorsed since Feb 5. Obama is 157 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination

Obama + 3 Clinton +1 -1 = even

The Clinton Campaign today announced the support of Massachusetts automatic delegate Arthur Powell, after the Massachusetts State Democratic Committee elected him one if its automatic delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080510/ap_on_el_pr/obama_endorsement


This is a big thing because Obama is getting all of the add ons in the states he won and Hillary is only splitting the SDs in the states that she won. She is falling further and further behind and is not catching up

And we all thought West Virginny was going to decide this thing.

LoL

Obama now leads in Super and Pledged Delegates


He is making it redundant

Okay, so it was an aquired taste for me. :D

GoBama! :bounce:

<--- (thanks for this!)

I'z 1 happy feller wit ma noo smyleez on ma welfair chek. :7

Two Virgin Island Superdelegates Endorse Barack Obama; Delegate Countdown - 157 To Go

Also, not a super, but really super:

Widow of Civil Rights Leader Medgar Evers, Endorses Barack Obama

Awesome!

I caught the 2 SDs from V.I. earlier. It brought the hucknumber down to 2!

Thanks ProSense!!!

:toast:

Obama gets nod of Arizona Congressman Harry Mitchell.

:woohoo:

:bounce::bounce::toast::bounce::toast::bounce::bounce:

O 275 C 270.5 !!!

:woohoo:

:headbang:
rocknation