West Virginia could spell trouble for Obama

Nearly 97% white, the county is as conflicted as any rural and working-class Democratic bastion as it struggles to adjust to the likely prospect of the party nominating its first African American presidential candidate.

Obama may have emerged from his double-digit victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton in North Carolina and his razor-thin loss in Indiana on Tuesday with a virtual lock on the Democratic nomination. But his performance did little to reassure political leaders here concerned by his sagging numbers among once-loyal white Democrats, who have steadily abandoned their party over the last several presidential elections. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-race10-2008may10,0,4930097.story

"I'm not yet convinced that Barack Obama is more substance than fluff," said Clyde M. See Jr., a former Democratic speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates and two-time gubernatorial candidate who heads a small law practice in Moorefield, the county seat. "He's a fine speaker, mind you, but I'm still not sure he's got the right stuff to win the general election."

"It's just not going to be easy for Obama to woo crossover Democrats back into the fold," said P. Merle Black, a professor of politics and government at Emory University and a longtime analyst of Southern voting patterns. "In addition to the race factor, you've got huge cultural differences between them and Obama on guns and religion and many of the issues that would make those voters think he doesn't represent their interests."

Obama has made an effort to highlight his religious beliefs and his support for hunters' rights. But his former pastor's racially charged sermons -- and the candidate's own comments about small-town Americans who have lost their jobs and "cling to guns or religion" -- have not helped his cause.

Obama's support among white male voters, the most tightly contested bloc over the primary season, has slipped. He did well early on in states such as Virginia, where he took 52% of the white male vote to Clinton's 47%. But this week, Obama lost, 58% to 42%, among white men in Indiana and 55% to 42% in North Carolina. He has won majorities of white male voters in 10 states since January, but Clinton bested him in 13 others, including the critical northern battlegrounds of Ohio and Pennsylvania.


"When we lost all those Democrats who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, I felt we just had to have a better bundle of goods to sell," See said.

"Problem is, I'm not sure we have those goods this time around."

Sorry.

of running in 2012...and four more years of bush..

its already over, so it doesnt matter. hillary lost the primary. sorry.

It just might be time for us all to acknowledge that WV has changed, and not for the better. The country changes bit by bit every four years. States change too. Just like Virginia and North Carolina are becoming more progressive states. California went Republican for president in all but one election between 1952 and 1988, but now is solidly Democratic. The Clinton's can run their 1990's campaigns, but the year is 2008 now.

she's white. Didn't you notice? ;-)

Thanks for letting me know. I, like Stephen Colbert, don't SEE color. :D

lemme see if I can find you some special color detecting glasses or something so you don't go voting for the "wrong" col..I mean candidate. :D

I :loveya: Colbert.

Let me know if you can find some.

So do I! :D

And watches NASCAR in her underwear swilling Bud Light.

Maybe they're "shiftless" whites as opposed to "hard working" whites?

Since Hillary didnt win of course.

:P :-)

I think that Obama said he expects Clinton to have substantial wins in WV and KY. He also expects to be the nominee. It's not going to change anything.

view that they are racist assholes back into her face. that would be justice.

if she actually made it to the GE... racism and sexism go hand in hand. :)

I doubt they are going to turn out in huge numbers to vote for a lame duck candidate, and even if they do, they won't do much to help her numbers. There just aren't enough of them.

Human nature being what it is, many people do not want to be identified with a loser. So I was just wondering if, despite polls, Obama just might do better than expected in WV because the voters there are not going to be all excited about being identified with a loser. Just a wacky theory probably, but...

People are not going to be inspired to turn out in record numbers to vote for someone that has no chance of winning. The race has been called, and I expect the next couple of contests to have turn out more like historical primaries (read: low). The reason turn out has been so high is because people thought they could play as "game changers"

The only place that might still have a higher then expected turnout is OR, because Obama can inspire his base to put him over the top.

so goes where, exactly?

Missisippi?
Idaho?

The race is over. All she can do now is tear him down in hopes of getting the nod in 2012 (if he loses). That won't happen.

Time for this to end.

the idiot federal govt needs to legalize hemp. Hemp is a proven replacement for petroleum products like plastics - Ford made a hemp car that was stronger than steel (youtube has a vid of it.)

in order to help ppl in WVa and KY move beyond a non-renewable and nasty, brutish and short energy economy, the fed govt should start a massive public works/infrastructure initiative to create windmill and hemp energy farms in these two depressed states. The two can co-exist on the same land. Neither requires huge amts of pesticides, no mtn top removal, no Mr. Peabody and his coal mines.

KY farmers already want to legalize hemp, and they aren't the groovy kinds of farmers ppl think of in Humboldt Co.

IMO, rather than argue over who is going to get the rural, poor white person vote (it hasn't been a democrat for decades - even with Bill) ppl should talk about how to build economies in those two places that will bring them into the new economy.

oh, wait, I'm sorry, this was supposed to be another b.s. slam on Obama.

and you don't even have your facts straight.

Seriously? :wow:

I'll go hunt down some links for you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxlj6fgQ-ZU

WWII - hemp for victory- essential to the war effort - Dept of Agriculture Film from the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ne9UF-pFhJY

hemp oil biodiesel

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skwRB6zoEpQ

hemp can be used for fiber - our Constitution is written on hemp paper - it is SUPERIOR to wood pulp paper. it is and was used to make ropes, clothing, fuels, cooking oil, building materials... the REAL CRIME in this nation is that the oil cos (and their toadies like Bush) have demonized this plant and kept it illegal.

if we wait until the shit truly hits the fan to legal hemp and start building industries, a move to hemp will be twice as hard... not only b/c available energy sources will be more expensive, but also b/c we will have been left behind by places like Canada who have been putting money into hemp industrial products.

I also don't understand why midwestern industrial areas cannot take advantage of the under-utilized workforce there to build those windmills. Or solar panels.

republicans who talk about a "free market" kill me b/c they lie out their asses. they have protected industries and oil is the biggest one. and politcians' refusal to "even the playing field" or even provide credits for start up industries keep us stuck. I'm sick of it.

KY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6cKjdIej04

IN/North Dakota
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7VqYFLtFAk

hemp revolution

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=hemp+&sitesearch= (part 1)
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=hemp+&sitesearch=&start=10 (part 2)

medical uses for marijuana, which would have to be grown in a completely separate way - hybrids for THC value, not for hemp fiber, and you wouldn't want the two to cross-pollinate (or, in other words, ANOTHER INDUSTRY from the same plant)

The Truth About Medical Marijuana

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=medicinal+marijuana+&sitesearch=&start=20

Waiting to Inhale

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=waiting+to+inhale+&sitesearch=

(these are just two good ones from lots of different info vids. med. mj is the BEST thing going for ppl with m.s., with nausea and vomiting from various illnesses, esp. cancer, c.p., - my step-mom died of ovarian cancer. I wish now I would have gone out and found something for her b/c I held her head as she vomited too many times... I saw her waste away. What the govt is doing is immoral and should be illegal.)

Make wit da clicky! http://www.hamline.edu/personal/dhudson/eng3370/3370s01/lutterman/hemp3.html

hemp would be the savior of my state, i know that much.

farmers have tried a few times in the past to get it to happen...

talk about a cash crop... and a GREAT replacement for tobacco.

I'm originally from TN. My mother's side of the family were farmers. My grandparents didn't do that well (great depression and all that) but two of my aunts/uncles have still managed to maintain their farms and have been very successful. (They're in biz together.) They moved from tobacco to soy beans YEARS AND YEARS ago for a cash crop. (They also have an egg and country ham brands.)

they don't care about the politics of mj. They are, by NO MEANS liberal in any way, but they would be thrilled to have a crop that requires little to no fertilizer, that can produce more than one crop per season, and that will help drive down the price of oil b/c demand could lessen.

I do not believe the "war on drugs" as it relates to mj is anything other than an attempt by the oil cos. to monopolize a market. And I am sick of the b.s. We have important issues to deal with. Don't give me a "gas holiday." Give me a new economy.

It's beyond ignorant since you can't get high off of hemp, but anytime someone mentions legalizing hemp the stoner impressions come out. It's frustrating beyond belief.

Weren't there some farmers who sued to be able start growing the stuff?

riverdeep-thinking about the children, always with the children

...since the denial continues.

or there will be a pilgramage of Hillary supporters who will journey to the site.

Clinton wins 65-35
Clinton gets a net gain of approximately 20 delegates.
Obama will match that in SDs between IN/NC and WV.
No net gain for Clinton this week.
How exactly is that "trouble for Obama"?

HRC in Oregon. Polls in California show Obama would win that state today if a primary were held. Oh yeah, Obama won Texas despite the Limbaugh strategy. We'll give you W.V. in the primary and then win it in the GE. Hey, thanks for playing though.

unfortunately for her.

:rofl:

However that trouble required landslide victories by Clinton. She did not accomplish that very difficult task, and so she lost the race for the nomination. Actually, if you think back and think honestly, she lost on super tuesday. TX and PA were longshot chances to undo Obama's clear victory. Those were the goalposts after super tuesday, and she didn't do it. Since then the Clinton campaign has simply restructured new sets of meaningless milestones, which she has also failed to meet, new goalposts every time the old ones can't be reached. Her campaign is over, she cannot overtake Obama. She will remain close, and as she apparently cannot concede, she will continue this nonsense right to the end. She is dragging some of her supporters along with her, but just reflect for a while. Take a break from GDP. Reassess the reality of the situation. You do not have to go down with her ship, you do not have to follow her as she plays this out to the very end. It is her bad trip at this point, not yours. Obama was my third choice. That is the way primaries go. Come on over.

if Obama does not win WV?

Imagine!

and at this point for Hillary to win those two..well it's like being picked for 1st chair trombone on the Titanic Band

and nothing will ever change if Barack Obama can't get elected because of white men.

WV and KY change NOTHING.

I think Ohio will surprise many people. They know a vote for Hillary only prolongs the agony. The final vote will be much closer than the polls suggest not because they have changed their mind but because they can see the writing on the wall and want this nonsense to be over.

Sorry it's been a long day and meant to say WV.

:silly: Thanks for informing us of the bloody obvious. :hi:

OR, MT, and SD. She will win WV, KY, and PR. Fl and MI will be almmost evenly split in a compromise. He will have more delegates. He will be the nominee. Case closed.

The title does not represent what the text says.

will cause doubts to resurface about him in the general.

he has far fewer "major vulnerabilities" than clinton

the vote is symbolic. As a Californian where the primary used to always be in June it was most always all over with by the time we voted.