THE MATH Update – Saturday, May 10 – HUCKABEE INDEX: ZERO !!! (Clinton mathematically OUT!)

THE MATH Update – Saturday, May 10 – HUCKABEE INDEX: ZERO !!!

It is now impossible for Senator Clinton to reach nomination!

* * * Huckabee Index Hits the Big Goose Egg! * * *

(Source: MyBO)



*************************************************

Take a stroll with me the rest of the way:

Barack Obama now has 1,870 total delegates. He needs 155 more to clinch the nomination, but he needs only 135 to keep Hillary Clinton from reaching the nomination. Here’s how he gets them:

1,871: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :party:
1,872: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :B-)
1,873: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :loveya:
1,874: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :7
1,875: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :toast:
1,876: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :headbang:
1,877: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :bounce:
1,878: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :woohoo:
1,879: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :party:
1,880: West Virginia pledged delegate, May 13 :B-)
1,881: Colorado add-on superdelegate, May 17 :loveya:
1,882: Kansas add-on superdelegate, May 17 :7
1,883: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :toast:
1,884: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :headbang:
1,885: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :bounce:
1,886: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :woohoo:
1,887: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :party:
1,888: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :B-)
1,889: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :loveya:
1,890: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :7
1,891: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :toast:
1,892: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :headbang:
1,893: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :bounce:
1,894: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :woohoo:
1,895: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :party:
1,896: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :B-)
1,897: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :loveya:
1,898: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :7
1,899: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :toast:
1,900: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :headbang:
1,901: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :bounce:
1,902: Kentucky pledged delegate, May 20 :woohoo:
1,903: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :party:
1,904: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :B-)
1,905: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :loveya:
1,906: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :7
1,907: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :toast:
1,908: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 <----- Pelosi Club Number Reached!!!
1,909: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :bounce:
1,910: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :woohoo:
1,911: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :party:
1,912: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :B-)
1,913: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :loveya:
1,914: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :7
1,915: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :toast:
1,916: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :headbang:
1,917: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :bounce:
1,918: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :woohoo:
1,919: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :party:
1,920: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :B-)
1,921: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :loveya:
1,922: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :7
1,923: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :toast:
1,924: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :headbang:
1,925: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :bounce:
1,926: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :woohoo:
1,927: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :party:
1,928: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :B-)
1,929: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :loveya:
1,930: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :7
1,931: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :toast:
1,932: Oregon pledged delegate, May 20 :headbang:
1,933: Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :bounce:
1,934: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :woohoo:
1,935: DNC Christine Pelosi (CA) superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :party:
1,936: Gov. Roy Romer (CO) superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :B-)
1,937: Fmr Pres. Jimmy Carter (GA) superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :loveya:
1,938: DNC Betty Richie (TX) superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :7
1,939: DNC Denise Johnson (TX) superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :toast:
1,940: DNC Ian Murray superdelegate (Pelosi Club), May 21 :party:
1,941: Alaska add-on superdelegate, May 23 :headbang:
1,942: Georgia add-on superdelegate, May 24 :bounce:
1,943: Georgia add-on superdelegate, May 24 :woohoo:
1,944: Wyoming add-on superdelegate, May 24 :party:
1,945: Hawaii add-on superdelegate, May 25 :B-)
1,946: Mississippi add-on superdelegate, May 31 :loveya:
1,947: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :7
1,948: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :toast:
1,949: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :headbang:
1,950: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :bounce:
1,951: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :woohoo:
1,952: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :party:
1,953: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :B-)
1,954: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :loveya:
1,955: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :7
1,956: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :toast:
1,957: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :headbang:
1,958: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :bounce:
1,959: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :woohoo:
1,960: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :party:
1,961: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :B-)
1,962: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :loveya:
1,963: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :7
1,964: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :toast:
1,965: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :headbang:
1,966: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :bounce:
1,967: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :woohoo:
1,968: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :party:
1,969: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :B-)
1,970: Puerto Rico pledged delegate, June 1 :loveya:
1,971: Maine add-on superdelegate, June 1 :7
1,972: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :toast:
1,973: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :headbang:
1,974: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :bounce:
1,975: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :woohoo:
1,976: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :party:
1,977: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :B-)
1,978: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :loveya:
1,979: Montana pledged delegate, June 3 :7
1,980: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :toast:
1,981: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :headbang:
1,982: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :bounce:
1,983: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :woohoo:
1,984: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :party:
1,985: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :B-)
1,986: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :loveya:
1,987: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :7
1,988: South Dakota pledged delegate, June 3 :toast:
1,989: Minnesota add-on superdelegate, June 7 :headbang:
1,990: Minnesota add-on superdelegate, June 7 :bounce:
1,991: Vermont add-on superdelegate, June 7 :woohoo:
1,992: Montana add-on superdelegate, June 8 :party:
1,993: Wisconsin add-on superdelegate, June 13 :B-)
1,994: Wisconsin add-on superdelegate, June 13 :loveya:
1,995: Idaho add-on superdelegate, June 14 :7
1,996: Iowa add-on superdelegate, June 14 :toast:
1,997: Virginia add-on superdelegate, June 14 :headbang:
1,998: Virginia add-on superdelegate, June 14 :bounce:
1,999: Washington add-on superdelegate, June 15 :woohoo:
2,000: Washington add-on superdelegate, June 15 :party:
2,001: North Carolina add-on superdelegate, June 21 :B-)
2,002: North Carolina add-on superdelegate, June 21 :loveya:
2,003: Oregon add-on superdelegate, June 21 :7
2,004: South Dakota add-on superdelegate, June 21 :toast:
2,005: Nebraska add-on superdelegate, June 21 <----- Clinton Is Hucked!!!

:party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party:



The countdown begins to reach the magic number. 20 to go until it’s clinched!





*** SPECIAL THANKS AND SHOUT-OUTS ***

Thanks to SoFlaJet, the first poster ever to reply in THE MATH threads!

Thanks to AuntieBush, the first poster ever to look at THE MATH and suggest that Senator Obama drop out! (and she was serious!)

Thanks to JackORoses, the first poster ever to think enough of my “skilz” to ask me an “if” question!

Thanks to Debi, the first poster ever to utter the word “Huckabee” in THE MATH threads! (you blindsided me with a major brainfart, I had to use it!)



Thanks to skipos and TheDoorbellRang for pointing out quite awhile back that my totals didn’t include Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine! The first posters to keep me in check!

Thanks to everyone who ever posted in, kicked and/or rec’d THE MATH!

Take a look back at every edition of THE MATH!

what is the Huckabee Index again?

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

:woohoo:

he has the nomination.

It doesn't include any super delegates not yet announced.


+ Pledged Delegates
+ Pledged Delegate estimate in future contests (conservative number and highly accurate to date NC/IN off only one delegate)
+ Add on Delegates from states Obama has taken by very large margins (so far in past 100% accurate)
+ Pelosi Club Super Delegates (SDs that agree to follow the candidate with the pledged delegate majority)

=2024 and the nomination

I can't wait for the General Election battle. I'm going to fight like hell.

other than that looks good.

(I heard you all the way from the other room!)

http://www.barackobama.com/resultscenter/index.php

Of course, this is the source listed in the OP.

:hi:

http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080222/NEWS02/802220386/-1/NEWS02

Superdelegate Murray gets personal pitch from Obama

http://geimg.sv.publicus.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=GE&Date=20080222&Category=NEWS02&ArtNo=802220386&Ref=AR&MaxW=240


He called the number from his home phone and asked who was on the other end.

"This is Barack Obama's cell phone," a man on the other end said.

"This is Ian Murray. I'm returning the senator's call," a surprised Murray said.

"Hold one second. The senator wishes to speak with you," the man said.

Obama, a Democratic candidate for president, and Murray talked for what Murray said was as long as 10 minutes Friday evening about the campaign, the Democratic National Convention, Erie and other related issues.


Murray, 56, is committed now to Clinton, but told Obama he will support the candidate with the most elected delegates and the highest percentage of the popular vote at the convention.

"He said he couldn't ask for anything more than that -- that I would keep an open mind," Murray said.

We have backups!

She is now losing more SDs than she's gaining, so she her peak will have been right around 270 (depending on which analyst you follow).

There are probably a bunch hoping she gets out on Wednesday after she wins WV. That way they won't have to go through the Judas thing.

The next 10 days will be tricky for SDs. There will be an avalanche of them coming out after he clinches the pledged delegate victory in Oregon. But will some SDs decide to get in ahead of the pack to try to get on Obama's good side? Hardly seems worth it when they have waited this long. But they are politicians, after all.

by phrigndumass, a DU Treasure!

Thanks.

:bounce:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHRENR6frpw

:headbang:

She is the only one that doesn't seem to know.

(lol)

OMG!!!:wtf:

Now she's coming with the bathroom sink!:spank: :hurts: :spank: :wow:

It's the shithouse sink strategy. Here comes the outhouse sink!

(all three)

:hurts:

n/t

WV C+29 Rasmussen
KY C+35 Rasmussen
OR O+12 Rasmussen
PR C+13 Register y Register (PR)
MT Even (no poll)
SD O+12 Rasmussen

:woohoo:



(edited: KY should be C+35)

Obama is blitzing the airwaves (TV & Radio) and mailboxes with ads and has been for about a couple of weeks.

Hillary? Nada. I've yet to see or hear anything from her.

Montana should be Obama country!

:loveya:

Is that Rasmussen poll fairly recent? I don't remember seeing it. Hey and another great job, thanks.

Thanks Upton!

:toast:

I have been to Oregon and South Dakota, and I can assure you there are lots of white people there, so Obama will not win those races.

Oh wait a minute. They are EDUCATED white people. Never mind.

:rofl:

:donut: :toast: :party:

Can someone explain to me about it? After May 20, once BO will reach the majority of PD's, did they say they'd declare?

http://geimg.sv.publicus.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=GE&Date=20080222&Category=NEWS02&ArtNo=802220386&Ref=AR&MaxW=240


The rumor is however that Obama is going to make a speech on May 20th claiming he is the presumptive nominee. I would expect a flood of SDs at that time.

The link shows the 7 who have made very specific statements (including Pres Carter and Speaker Pelosi)that say they will vote for the candidate with the most plegded delegates.


There are many many others who have made similar statements but ahve included a proviso about the popular vote and they have not been included even though their intent seems clear


The important point I feel is that these numbers have been arrived at with the most reliable percentages and projections available and do not, for example include any of the additional super delegates (not add ons) of which about 10 declared in the last 2 days or 15 this week.

:party: :toast: :party: :party: :toast: :party:







Thanks to phrigndumass for doing THE MATH! :toast: :yourock: :applause:

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

Thanks BattyDem!

:yourock:

Thanks for your work.

Click! :toast:

Is that like the Mile High Club or something?

Several undeclared superdelegates have been quoted as saying they would endorse the candidate who won the most pledged delegates, following Speaker Nancy Pelosi's lead. Senator Obama will reach the majority of pledged delegates on May 20.

:D

dragged. Who was the genius here who predicted this flood after NC/IN?

I know of a dumb ass who saw it coming! }(

:hi:

It's pure T gold, hopefully with Obama in office you won't have to sell it to live off of! Enjoy!!

I feel sorry for the beheaded dude whose ear is about to be invaded by what looks like a wine bottle. If I sell, I'll donate to Preznit Obamy! (gotta watch the gold market)

Thanks, SaveAmerica! :D

:loveya: :loveya: :loveya:

that the superdelegates can change their minds.

:7

:loveya:

I did come up with a somewhat plausible (barely) scenario under which she could still take the nomination.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5911960&mesg_id=5911960

But in reality the writing's on the wall.

limericks and jest, and now devil's advocate! hehe ...

:headbang: :hi:

:toast:

:toast:

Now let's hope Barack stays sane and doesn't bow to the DLC mafia to put Clinton on the ticket!!

:woohoo:

:7

lolbama!

with the fancy numbers, and wordy explanations, and funny Huckabee analogies... she can still win if Mark Penn thinks of something really cool to put in his next PP presentation due out sometime Monday evening after dinner and a few shots. :eyes:

:thumbsup:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNRs0RM3EEE

I'm working on the MarkPenn tt font as we speak... it's got that disheveled, "in a hurry" look like he does. It's gonna' rock. :toast:

"I'm ur ear hair, swirlen ur brain"

Thanks for all the numbers!

Is this really happening?

:kick:

We will now watch the last acts of goalpost drama unfold.

Thanks for the report and all the math Phrig. It fits well with my morning coffee and the bright sunshine.

:donut: :D

:toast: Cheers!

I'm too lazy to d/l your coffee and donut right now

but how's this:

The math helped keep me confident. I hope it allows for avoiding an unfortunate convention.:bounce:

It helped keep me confident as well ... Back in March other posters here filled me with doubt, so I had to figure it out for myself. So glad I shared it with you folks!

Woohoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:woohoo:

:yourock:

:headbang:

:hi:

:yourock:

:toast: :bounce:

:bounce: :dem:

what would need to be brokered?

:shrug:
rocknation

:thumbsup:

Thanks Scurrilous!

:toast:

:hi: :yourock:

:loveya: mods too!

(front page!)

Jibes with my numbers. And there are those who say that WV is no big deal? It is indeed!

:headbang:
rocknation

:kick:

And on to the next win!

Gobama!

(omg, I didn't just say that)

:scared:

Is it really true?

The Huckabee Index at ZERO?!?

And a thoroughly decent person could actually become the President of the USofA ????

if this isn't the best news in an aeon of bitterness and bile.

:patriot:

"As noted Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."
link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Thanks for sharing the link, Douglas! Senator Clinton will be nowhere on their radar.

:thumbsup:

For those of you who don't buy into the Huckabee Index, here is a different way to look at it - the majority of pledged delegates.

I thought I would post a few numbers from FiveThirtyEight.com:

Current pledged delegate totals: Obama 1590.5, Clinton 1426.5

Scenario 1: Florida and Michigan not seated – Majority number = 1627

Obama +8 from WV
Obama +17 from KY
Obama +29 from OR – Obama total 1644.5 :party: :bounce:

Scenario 2: Florida fully seated, Michigan 69:59 (compromise) – Majority number = 1783.5. Pledged Delegate Totals: Obama 1716.5, Clinton 1600.5

Obama +8 from WV
Obama +17 from KY
Obama +29 from OR
Obama +23 from PR – 1793.5 :party: :bounce:

Scenario 3: Florida fully seated, Michigan 73:55 (Clinton gets what she wants) – Majority number = 1783.5. Pledged Delegate Totals: Obama 1712.5, Clinton 1604.5

Obama +8 from WV
Obama +17 from KY
Obama +29 from OR
Obama +23 from PR – 1789.5 :party: :bounce:

The take-home message is that even if Senator Clinton gets Florida and Michigan seated the way she has insisted, Obama still wins the majority of pledged delegates – it just takes him one more primary.

Thanks for sharing that, ekwhite. She gets clobbered with her own argument! :spank:

(btw ... what sane, rational, well-paid-off person would ever not buy into the Huckabee Index?! Blasphemy, I tell you!)

}(

:toast:

:toast:

Now what would be really awesome would be if 85-90 of the super delegates would endorse before May 20th so he could hit 2025 that day instead of in mid-June.

Someone needs to tell the super delegates to
DO THE MATH -- IT'S OVER. SO ENDORSE ALREADY!

Thanks for the MATH PARTAY thread, phrigndumass!:party:

Why are the supers :scared: :scared: :scared: :scared: ?

:party: :toast:

There was a DU poster named phrigndumass
Who's good at math and not a smartass,
I printed all his posts out
And carried them about
And smiled whilst drinking my Bass.

Best wishes.

Your limerick and good friends: Priceless! :D :D :D :D

:toast:

:party:

http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/026894.html

Democratic Rep. Tom Allen announced this morning that he is supporting Barack Obama for president.

"I have been friends for a very long time with former President Clinton and Sen. Clinton. I respect their service to our nation," Allen said in a written statement. He added that "most of the primary voters across the nation have now spoken. It is time to bring a graceful end to the primary campaign. We now need to unify the Democratic party and focus on electing Sen. Obama and a working majority in the United States Senate."

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBslb

As a Democratic National Committeewoman, I have felt it my duty to let this unique presidential campaign process play out, one that has reached across the country and engaged millions of Americans in expressing their preference for a Democratic nominee before expressing my preference as a superdelegate. I am now convinced that it is time to pull together behind a single candidate who has the backing of a growing number of Americans. I therefore announce my wholehearted endorsement of Senator Barack Obama.

Thank you and grantcart for your fantastic work. :yourock: Have an elitist mimosa on me! :toast: