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Well, Hillary Clinton has officially proved me wrong.

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009)

FlyingSquirrel

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Sun May-11-08 05:02 AM
Original message

Well, Hillary Clinton has officially proved me wrong.

I figured she would suspend her campaign before she lost the Superdelegate lead. That hasn't happened.

There's only one conclusion I can draw from this:

There will be a brokered convention.

She does not accept the Superdelegates' endorsements as valid. They can change their minds all the way up to the Convention, so she doesn't have to accept their endorsements as being valid. In reality, since she insists on seating FL and MI as-is, and won't budge an inch on allowing any compromise:

She can insist that Obama must have not just 2,025 delegates, but in fact 2,208 delegates WITHOUT the Superdelegates since technically all 795-850 of them (depending on whether MI and FL Supers are allowed) could vote against him. No matter how ridiculous the idea seems.

This, to me, is clearly the last straw; next time around we need to get rid of the Superdelegates. This must not be allowed to happen to our party again.

Scorched earth rules and woe be unto us. If there's a way to lose to John McCain, our party will find it and it looks like we've found it.

Pack your bags and head for Denver, and start making your protest signs now. Looks like this is the way it is.

x(

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Leopolds Ghost

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Sun May-11-08 05:06 AM
Response to Original message

1. Good. I was hearing about folks going to Denver for the protests anyway. There's a WAR on after all

Edited on Sun May-11-08 05:10 AM by Leopolds Ghost

Not that most DUers out there seem to remember that, with the obsession defending the inoffensive neoliberal candidate
(who has already won anyhow) against the neocon, angry white female George Wallace candidate.

I saw this somewhere, I don't know how significant a movement it is, I've only heard rumors about it.

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cali

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Sun May-11-08 05:15 AM
Response to Original message

2. nope. and I haven't been wrong about much this primary season

except for thinking Obama would win NH. This will end shortly after June 3- if not before. It's simple really. SDs don't want this going to the convention and they'll endorse Obama in sufficient numbers to put him well over 2025. He'll become the presumptive nominee and will be recognized as such by the party. Many of Hill's SDs will abandon her. Obama will do all the stuff presumptive nominees do: Pick a VP, and focus on his repuke opponent. Hillary won't be able to do much of anything due to financial problems. And is she really willing to lose more than 11 million bucks of her personal wealth?

It ain't going to the convention.

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DemVet

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Sun May-11-08 08:22 AM
Response to Reply #2

11. ....

:eyes:

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cboy4

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Sun May-11-08 05:27 AM
Response to Original message

3. The Democrats should be able to defeat McCain with only

a single day of campaigning.

Look at how the Republicans have ruined the country over the past eight years.

If we lose in November, it will not be Hillary's fault.

Blame the idiot voters who feel the GOP should remain in control of the White House.

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Capt. Al

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Sun May-11-08 07:48 AM
Response to Reply #3

4. She can't quit Now!

Hillary must continue campaigning. At this point, it isn't about winning the nomination; it's about debt. The only way she can recover the "loans" she made to her foundering campaign is to allow her followers to continue contributing. "God Bless Rich People" (i.e.: with plenty of fools who will screw their own country to keep them that way.)

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polpilot

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Sun May-11-08 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #4

7. Every morning ALL HILLARY HAS is this race. It's her entire existence. I know Chelsea is there but

there's nothing else. She reads, hears, and knows that Bill has possibly cost her the presidency. She like an alcoholic with a tumbler of vodka in her hand. She CAN'T stop.

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JeanGrey

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Sun May-11-08 08:14 AM
Response to Reply #7

10. Don't blame Bill. She OWNS this loss. BIll got more strident

as it went on, his own legacy is down the tubes and this was the last redemption available for the Clintons before they are regulated to Jimmy Carter status.

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polpilot

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Sun May-11-08 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #10

13. Bill's legacy defined by Monica. Hillary's defined by Snipergate.

You're right. It's over for them and they can only long for Carter status.

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JeanGrey

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Mon May-12-08 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #13

30. I'm afraid so. It is really sad.

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Forkboy

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Sun May-11-08 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #3

26. Correct on all counts.

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gbrenna

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Sun May-11-08 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #3

29. It will be Hillary's fault...

Everyone knows a brokered convention causes a party to lose. Not only will Hillary never be president-kiss 2012 goodbye Clinton supporters, but she will be out of the senate as soon as possible. True Democrats will never forgive a candidate who places personal ambition first and causes Democrats to lose not just the presidency but down ticket as well. However it won't come to that because the party has been giving Hillary a chance to end this futile campaign on her own, but if she won't, they will end it. Of course, this could hurt Obama's election chances as well so she would be blamed for the loss. Her only chance to salvage her dignity and political career is to quit after West Virginia.

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lojasmo

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Sun May-11-08 08:01 AM
Response to Original message

5. If it goes to the convention....

First ballot, Obama.

Bookmark the thread.

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TBF

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Sun May-11-08 08:04 AM
Response to Original message

6. I can't imagine Dean would let that happen - he knows the risks.

The protests will not be pretty if Hillary steals the nomination, and Dean is a smart man. He knows the consequences. I can't imagine he'd let this get to convention.

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Bensthename

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Sun May-11-08 08:09 AM
Response to Original message

8. Nah, there are only a few weeks left of primaries, she will finish and then drop.

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Gore1FL

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Sun May-11-08 08:39 AM
Response to Reply #8

18. I am coming around to your way of thinking.

I think we'll see a tone drop in the next week or so, MI and FL will be resolved in a final and meaningful way, everyone will vote, and then it is over.

There seems to be some communication from behind the scenes. Both candidates know they need a unified party in the fall.

It's over enough now that Obama can and will focus his political cannons on McCain. I think Hillary's will fire a few more hazing shots, and then go silent until June. At that point hers will turn towards McCain as well.

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JeanGrey

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Sun May-11-08 08:12 AM
Response to Original message

9. The DNC won't allow it. She'll be forced out before the

convention. A brokered convention would probably assure a President McCain.

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KansasVoter

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Sun May-11-08 08:24 AM
Response to Original message

12. LOL....Start making your protest signs now.....

I love it. I will drive the 8 hours to be there if needed.
I hope she is smarter than that. Her carreer is over of she pulls a stunt like that.

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frickaline

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Sun May-11-08 08:29 AM
Response to Original message

14. Honestly I think she's in part fighting for the voters in MI and FL

Edited on Sun May-11-08 08:30 AM by frickaline

I really do. And not only for her own benefit. I think she KNOWS she can't win this nomination but has taken it upon herself to fight for these voters rights, and to some extent I think that's not such a bad idea. Sure, these states violated party rules but individual voters don't control that and the voting blocks aren't necessarily educated on the implications of doing so. In a true democracy, you have to find a way to make everyone's voice heard.

Obama is wrong for not cutting some kind of deal here, and I know this isn't going to be a popular statement here but I ask you all to be objective. While I accept and support him for the nomination, I can still be critical of him.

Obama really needs to fix this. These are important voters in the GE. To write off their votes is a big mistake. Clinton is on the right side of the fence on this issue whether or not it is also for a self serving reason.

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KittyWampus

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Sun May-11-08 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #14

16. Obama just agreed to a deal where the delegate from MI are split in Hillary's favor. SHE rejected it

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frickaline

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Sun May-11-08 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #16

17. Do you have a link?

Edited on Sun May-11-08 09:24 AM by frickaline

I haven't read anything like this, I'd like to see this claim backed up.

And given that she can't win this why doesn't he just give her anything she wants there? Its not like it means anything. We all know he wasn't on the ballot in MI and that these states violated rules.

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merh

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Sun May-11-08 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #17

22. ..

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20080509/NATION/63422098/1002

By Sean Lengell - Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton yesterday appealed directly to rival Sen. Barack Obama to let her disqualified Michigan and Florida primary victories stand, saying in a letter to the Illinois senator that to do otherwise would violate the "foremost principles of our party"

The correspondence came the same day that the Clinton campaign rejected a Michigan compromise that would give her a 10-delegate edge in the state over Mr. Obama.

-snip-

The compromise, drafted by four prominent Democrats, would split the difference between what each candidate wants, awarding 69 delegates to Mrs. Clinton and 59 to Mr. Obama.

The Obama campaign said yesterday that it would "seriously consider" the plan, which was crafted by Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick of Michigan, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger and Democratic National Committee member Debbie Dingell.

"The fact that Senator Clinton has flatly rejected the wishes of Michigan Democrats proves that her position on this matter was apparently never about principle or the people of Michigan, but about whatever political calculation benefits Senator Clinton," Mr. Vietor said.

-snip-

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tpsbmam

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Sun May-11-08 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #17

23. Links

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002719785

http://blogometer.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/05/racebased_initi.html
Another debate raging in the liberal blogosphere is the dispute over how to settle the delegate controversy in FL and MI, states that Clinton supporters insist are crucial to her electability argument. Clinton added fuel to the fire yesterday when she sent an open letter to Obama demanding that the FL and MI delegations be seated without compromise.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080508/pl_cq_politics/politics2719785

http://current.com/items/88941137_clinton_rejects_latest_michigan_delegate_plan

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/hillary_campaign_says_no_to_ne.php

etc, etc

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kevinbgoode

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Sun May-11-08 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #14

20. So we should just eliminate party rules?

Or put in an amendment which says "Hey...we are just kidding. Violate these all you like, then lie to the electorate you fooled, then demand to be seated as if nothing has happened."

The point is, there should never had been any need to cut a "deal" for ANY state.

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frickaline

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Sun May-11-08 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #20

25. No that's not what I'm saying

I'm saying that if Obama intends to win a GE, he needs to provide the voters with the feeling that their votes in the primary were counted. The fact that party rules were violated cannot be changed but was this violation the fault of the individual voter? Don't you think they might feel a bit 'robbed' of their democratic rights in all this? A set of votes discounted by a technicality imposed on them by their state isn't going to sit well.

As a politician, he needs to somehow smooth this over. That's what good politicians do. Because at the end of the day, the fact remains that he needs MI and FL in the GE. It may be that Hillary is now the stumbling block for this as those articles point out, but the ownership of this issue is still on Obama since he'll be the one facing the GE.

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tabasco

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Sun May-11-08 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #14

27. Hillary said it would be over on February 5th.

I guess her concern for all the voters' rights is kind of a new cause for her, for some reason.

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2008/010308Burns.shtml

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frickaline

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Sun May-11-08 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #27

28. seems so but it doesn't mean that Obama doesn't need to bridge the gap here. nt

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JeanGrey

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Mon May-12-08 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #14

31. It would be foolish to believe that Hillary does anything that

doesn't benefit Hillary.

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roseBudd

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Sun May-11-08 08:31 AM
Response to Original message

15. She has officially crossed the laughingstock threshold

Gore did not run again IMHO because he knew the so-called Sore Loserman moniker would be a distraction.

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Warren Stupidity

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Sun May-11-08 09:54 AM
Response to Original message

19. She can't actually insist on shit.

She could try to force a rules change - but that is unlikely. Obama will have either the 2025 needed or the 2208 needed under a FL MI compromise seating and will be the nominee. The only brokering will be about what sort of presence Clinton will have in Denver.

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AllentownJake

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Sun May-11-08 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #19

21. She better watch herself

of she'll get the Jerry Brown treatment

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burythehatchet

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Sun May-11-08 10:26 AM
Response to Original message

24. This clown will be protesting while Obama is getting sworn in for his second term

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AZBlue

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Mon May-12-08 04:48 PM
Response to Original message

32. 2012: no superdelegates & mental tests required for all candidates

She's unstable - I don't care who is bothered by that, it's the truth. She has no grasp of reality.

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