If there are more registered Repugs than there are Dems

and the registered voters are leaning Kerry, doesn't that mean Repugs are leaning Kerry same thing with the likely voters. We are always told Dems don't vote so Repugs have to be voting for Kerry ! Right?

I posted a story on another thread that gave the breakdown. Repubs are only about 33%, which is why they so need moderate/cross-overs to win.

If I find the thread and/or article again, I will post it here.

and it has been proven somewhere as we used it for statistics in a campaign I was involved with. But there are more Dems.You are right. Now if we can get them to vote!

...because this link can help break that down and it actually says independents are leaning toward Kerry:

<link> http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/



Kerry continues to lead among Independents by 10 percentage points in a two-way match-up.

August 2 Bush Kerry Undecided

All voters 46% 49% 5%

Republicans 87% 7% 6%
Democrats 9% 87% 4%
Independents 42% 52% 6%

Jul 2004 45% 49% 6%
Jun 2004 46% 48% 6%
May 2004 44% 47% 9%
Apr 2004 44% 50% 6%
Mar 2004 43% 50% 7%
Feb 2004 46% 48% 6%
Jan 2004 46% 47% 7%


With Nader in the race, Kerry is at 49%, Bush is at 45%, and Nader is at 2%. Kerry has a 13 percentage-point lead over Bush among Independents in the three-way match-up.

August 2 Bush Kerry Nader Undecided

All voters 45% 49% 2% 4%

Republicans 87% 7% 1% 5%
Democrats 9% 85% 2% 4%
Independents 40% 53% 3% 4%

Jul 2004 44% 47% 3% 6%
Jun 2004 45% 46% 3% 6%
May 2004 44% 45% 4% 7%
Apr 2004 43% 48% 2% 7%
Mar 2004 42% 48% 2% 8%

Kerry and Bush have each gained proportionately among Independents based on their overall ballot strength since June.