Thoughts: Will Obama V. Mccain be a blowout or the third consecutive too close to call election?

Obama's been called "the high risk, high reward" candidate. I'm not sure if I necessarily agree. I think that this could be another red state/blue state election with Ohio and Florida deciding the race once again. I don't see Obama losing a single blue state. I think he has 262 electoral votes in the bag because I think he'll win Iowa and New Mexico. Nevada, Colorado and Ohio will be hotly contested. I see him winning a 300-310 electoral college majority if he outperforms, which would still be relatively close.

Mccain has enough appeal to fight this race hotly until the end I believe. I expect 52.3-47.5 as what the final popular vote will be with a 51-49 split on the low end and a 55-45 split on the high end.

Obama has more potential to win a bigger eletoral college majority than Mccain but Mccain has the potential to eke out an electoral college majority and win even if it's close.

I don't think positions are hardened on this race the way they were very early on in Bush V. Kerry and Bush V. Gore since known quantities were involved. That would auger for a blowout in either direction but I doubt it.

I don't expect a 40-50 state sweep by either candidate, however.

to Obama/McCain?

:P

:crazy:

Don't you have anything better to do than attack someone that you don't even know so viciously?

there is no reason to point out who they used to support. I.E your own avatar.

:)

here to diss the man before launching attacks on Hillary, then Obama, and now full circle.

I was just asking if he/she was moving out of Primary mode into GE mode...

posted day after day, starting only ONE day after being a supposed Obama Supporter. No way a person can say those kinds of things about a candidate and have any foundation of belief whatsoever. I'd prefer to remember who I'm posting with, or against, as the case may be tomorrow.

...for McCain...

:evilgrin:
rocknation

"too close to call" means close enough to steal.

that the Iraq War is going to become a bigger and bigger issue as the campaign progresses. McCain is benefitting right now with democrats doing his work for him. Once this stops and McCain has to comment on issues things are going to rapidly change. Obama can stand there and say I've been against this since the begining and I am now with a straight face. That is a nightmare for him because after 5 years there we haven't made any progress that he can point to.

McCain is running to the right not to secure his base and he'll be doing it till September. He'll have a fine line to walk on trying to go back to the Center because conservatives don't trust him. The center is open for Obama to move into on issues.

McCain is the one in trouble not us right now.

McCain is going down. I predict a landslide for Obama. :toast:

I equate Obama to Gore - intelligent - maybe too intelligent for the stupid. McCain has a high likeability because he has an easy sense of humor and Obama is more serious. So therefore, I think McCain has a better chance than he should have. I'm just thinking how many uninformed people voted for George Bush because they thought he'd be fun to have a beer with. Obama is more serious in his approach. I don't give a lot of voters much credit for "brains." I am hopeful, though, that the registrations of so many new Democrats, i.e., the young and idealistic and the well-educated, in addition to centrist and left-leaning independents, who I am sure will go Democratic, will turn the tables and give us an electorate that is more concerned about issues than beers, and more apt to vote for a person with brains. If all that happens, it "should" be a blowout. Least I'm hoping so.

Seriously. :toast:

To many of us WANT CHANGE.

If he's relying on the black vote to carry the south the way it did in the primaries, forget it.

We shall see.

if mccain selects Crist of florida i believe mccain will have a good chance

if obama selects hillary or the governor of ohio his chances will be good

my gut feeling is a mccain victory over obama

Bullshit on McCain winning, and bullshit on Obama needing a DLC criminal as VP.

If we Democrats push hard and bring the disaffected constuencies who aren't voting into our camp, Obama rolls McCain up like a good joint. And that is EXACTLY what I want.

We need a Maine-to-Maui repudiation of the Corrosive Soviet Republican Agenda, and we can do that with any Democrat we put forth,
but IT IS UP TO US.

I've read a lot of thread about Obama's "White People Problem" or Hillary's "Non White People Problem". The real problem is we have a "Democratic People Problem". Once again, us Democrats are programming ourselves to lose instead of building a program that can win.

We have beliefs we can run on. We have issues we can run on. We have ideas we can run on...and we have an issue to win on. For the last seven years we've seen people who work their butts off everyday getting gamed by the Freeloader Class in this country and this Republican Government has enabled that class. And now that class once again wants to buy off hardworking Americans by pitting them against other hardworking Americans.

They will put worker against worker. Child against child. Mothers against Mothers. They will try to sell every difference they can because their corrosive agenda can only win by selling that difference. So corrosive is that agenda, that EVEN REPUBLICANS AREN'T BUYING IT ANYMORE. John McCain doesn't believe in that agenda, but he has to run that playbook lest he loses his base.

We democrats have an opportunity to win states we haven't won in decades, but we can only do that when we all decide that in 2008 we will concede NOTHING to the Freeloaders. We will as a party call them out for what they are and we will not let up.

I have already decided. I will not concede one vote to them and I will work to get the votes that cannot get. I'm not worried about those people who whatever reason will not vote for us. I'm concentrating on the people who are on the fence, who just may give us a look if we give them a reason to.

It doesn't matter who you were for. I wasn't supporting either Obama or Clinton in the primaries, but my goal is winning in 2008, and then 2010 and then again in 2012 and 2014...and every election in between.

We have an opportunity as Democrats to pound the corrosive Anti-American Conservative Agenda for a generation to come. DON'T BLOW IT!

I predict 55% for McCain in a Obama/McCain matchup. But in a Hillary/McCain matchup, I see Hillary easily winning by the same amount.

McCain is toast. I predict a landslide for Obama. :toast:


The Repugs are scared shitless.

for that reason, overwhelming blowout for Obama.

Biggest landslide in American history.

Nice to know I'm not the only one predicting a landslide for Obama. :toast:

dropping prices in the fall to help McCain.

Will they be able to tell the difference?

http://www.bush-mccainchallenge.com/?rc=tafcarrot

with the same 8-9 states throwing it one was or another.

Provided that neither campaign makes a major blunder.

Unfortunately, there are more blue states up for grabs than red ones this go around.

We lost Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida last time. This time, we have an awesome chance in all of those states. What blue states can Mccain realistically turn red?

Not an probable result.

Same with Florida- though there the swing would probably have to be closer to 15% to overcome voting fraud.

Colorado with a about a 4 1/2 poit swing is a more likely pickup- but by the same token, the Dems could easily lose Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania. And/or New Hamsphire.

New Mexico may go blue- but as it stands, Nevada probably remains red.

Overall, "maverick" labeled McCain has a better chance at picking up blue states, and holding onto what they had in 2004.

Also, it's useful to remember voters behave differently in presidential politics than on the state and local level. Some states that have elected plenty of Dems in their legislatures, or as governors or even Senators -tend not to vote that way (and haven't for many years) when it comes down to the presidency.

As I said, it'll be close- with a polarized electorate, though looking at the maps and playing with the numbers, I can't help but conclude (even with all that;s happened) that the advantage lies with the Republicans. Not a pleasant thought- but a realistic one.

McCain's got plenty of problems of his own....not the least of which is fundraising.

I predict a landslide for Obama. :toast:

With a huge convention bounce as well.

McCain is a weak candidate. The Republicans can't raise any money, they are having low voter turnout. The economy sucks and the war is not going to get much better by then. But what will happen if Moron-In-Chief bombs Iran? All bets are off.

:hi:

:toast:

I'm not worried about Iran.

if the Dems actually go after McCain with that supposed cash advantage. The ammunition's there.

But don't expect the corporate media to do it- or enable or assist the Dems in doing so (their sympathies and practices lie distinctly in the other direction).

Too many people want change in this country.

If you think I'm a "fool" for thinking so, so be it.

I'm a wise fool, trust me. :D

reality and probabilities are what they are- and they don't much care what we think.

And, in all probability, McCain's narrative will be framed as change -or likely "change with experience we can trust" or some such thing.

Believe me, the Obama campaign won't have a monopoly on that meme.

I refuse to negate the value of one person's opinion.....or influence.

Basically you and I want the same thing, an Obama win.

It's just that I'm just a bit more optimistic about it happening than you appear to be.

C'est la vie. That's cool. :toast:

Obama will, just as he did with Hillary, undermine the structural integrity of the foundation of McCain's argument for being President.

Not only will it be effective, it will also infuriate McCain, and eventually McCain will lose control in public.

McCain may attempt to frame the issues, but he is on the wrong side of all of them and he will fail.

The economy is crashing and as McCain said to the Wall Street Journal editorial board, he “doesn’t really understand economics”.

Landslide.

McCain's free pass has expired

than ever before in U.S. politics and let's earn the landslide I believe is about to be visited upon the thick head of John McCain.

Not so much due to qualities of Obama as the fact that McCain has that big (R) tattooed on his ass.

The republicans have managed to discredit themselves to the extent that anybody with a (D) after their name should be able to trounce them without breaking into a sweat.

A lousy Republican economy

A endless republican war

A crumbling infrastructure with (R) plastered all over the remains

An incoherent, inept, failed, Republican boob infesting the White House

A long list of Republican criminals

An even longer list of Republican scandals

Barring Obama shooting and eating his children on prime time TV, this will be a blowout.

:toast: nice to know I'm not the only one who thinks this way. :hi:

over the next six months. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=armYFIWZS8V0&refer=home

To be fair, it would be a stretch to blame this entirely on John McCain and the Republicans. There are many, many factors effecting the massive rise in oil price. Although it would not be a stretch to assign some of the responsibility to the policies of the Bush Administration.

But regardless whose fault this is, the consequences will reverberate throughout the entire world economy and the incumbent President of the United States and his Party will be held responsible in the eyes of many, many Americans.

There is no doubt that many, many Americans will associate John McCain with the problem.

This has the potential to create for John McCain and the Republicans a political disaster this coming November.

And all of this aside, Rasmussen which has many times be criticized for having a Republican bias reports trending very favorable to the Democrats and very unfavorable to the Republicans. - link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.4% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago. " see also this Rasmussen report on Party identity trending: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

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And on top of everything else, along with a very low interest level as reflecting in very low primary participation, the Republicans are having a lot of trouble raising money for the Presidential campaigns:

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php