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anyone know what the Delegate split might be tonight?

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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 12:36 PM
Original message
anyone know what the Delegate split might be tonight?
Hillary should win with at least 65% of the vote
there are only 28 delegates up for grabs
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ORDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 12:39 PM
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1. She'll probably net about 9 delegates over Obama. Big whoop!
He's already just about neutralized that with the recent SD pick ups.
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TheDoorbellRang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. she could net up to 12
It could end up 8 to 20 in her favor. That would be 71% of the total but it still won't matter. She'd have to win 93% of the remaining pledged delegates at this point to have it mean anything.
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Waya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 12:51 PM
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2. I'm thinking too much is made of this.....
.........first: It won't make any difference, whatsoever. Second: West Virginians can do math, believe it or not, how many will stay home and not vote at all because it doesn't change anything? How many will vote for Obama because Hillary can't catch him, no matter what, so what's the point?

She will win by the margin she will win - and that's that. It has no impact, except maybe in Hillary's mind.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 12:51 PM
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3. She'll net somewhere between 8-12 delegates
And then Obama will get a bunch of SD's tomorrow to wipe that out.
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HiFructosePronSyrup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 12:58 PM
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5. However much it is...
she'll be in far worse shape than she was last tuesday when everybody knew it was over.
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Abacus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 01:00 PM
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6. electoral-vote.com had speculated on 19-9
As a consequence of these demographics, Hillary Clinton is expected to do very well in West Virginia. Getting 2/3 of the vote is plausible. If she does get this in each of the state's three congressional districts, she gets 4 district-level delegates per CD, for a total of 12 to his 6. With 2/3 of the vote, she will get 5 at-large delegates to his 2 and 2 PLEOs to his 1. Thus she is likely to win 19 pledged delegates to his 9 for a net gain of 10 delegates.


http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Comparison/Maps/May12.html
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mohc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 01:02 PM
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7. Here are the split breakdowns
This assumes an even distribution among the 3 congressional districts

00.00-14.99% 0
15.00-16.66% 4
16.67-21.42% 5
21.43-24.99% 6
25.00-35.71% 9
35.72-41.66% 10
41.67-49.99% 13
50.00-58.33% 15
58.34-64.28% 18
64.29-74.99% 19
75.00-78.57% 22
78.58-83.33% 23
83.33-84.99% 24
85.00-100.0% 28

Anywhere you see the delegate count jump by 3 it means one of the congressional district thresholds was crossed, so the actual count may vary with statewide totals close to those points if the districts are inconsistent. 35% for Obama will either get him 9 or 10 delegates, as it would be close to the boundary to move up to 10 delegates. I think it is highly unlikely that Obama will get less than 25% of the vote, so the most likely outcomes are between 9-13 delegates. This would mean Clinton would net between 2-10 delegates.
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