My Predictions for Kentucky and Oregon

I'm going to use the Slate Delegate calculator for my prediction:

Hillary wins Kentucky by 67-33 (same margins as WV), Obama wins Oregon by 67-33. I'm just predicting.

After May 20 if these margins of victory are achieved, what chance does she have to overtake him in the remaining primaries?

NADA ZIP ZILCH! Not even with a 100% victory for her in all the remaining contests, he's still ahead in pledged delegates.

This is why I think she should drop out after May 20.

What do you think? Am I overreaching with my predictions?

I think Obama will get 35% in Kentucky.

I think He'll win by 15% in Oregon.

She gains Delegates and a few popular votes and than we get to hear about Montana being the tie breaker....while the super delegates pull the plug.

Oh I for got we gave that back, but we still maybe able to count it.

Their must be some place this women can win this thing or she may go up in smoke. Hard to give up the dream and if you have the money? Well any thing goes. By the way does any one know much about this street money she is said to be spending?

I will say Obama winning by 15-20% in Oregon and him getting 35% in Kentucky.

She still doesn't overtake him even if she gets 100% of all the remaining contests.

My prediction is that he gets around 35% or 40%. No way he beats Clinton by 30% in Oregon. More like 15% to 17%.

Are to our predictions.

Mine was overly positive about Oregon, but yours is a bit more realistic.

I'll say between 15% and 20% in Oregon realistically. Oregon is definitely an Obama state, I'm just wondering by what margins though. I readjusted the numbers according some posters here (Slate STILL hasn't frozen the West Virginia slide yet so I put 67-33, and I know Obama got less than that):

Kentucky: Hillary wins this 65-35% She gets 33 delegates and Obama 18 delegates.

Oregon: Obama wins this 61-39 (22 points) or 59-41 (18 points). He gets 32 delegates (her: 20) according to the 61-39 estimate, 31 (her 21) according to the 59-41 prediction.

And I put 100% win in the remaining contests for her and she still doesn't overtake him even when I lower Obama's win in Oregon.

Kentucky C-64 O-36 (Clinton by 28%)
Oregon O-58 C-42 (Obama by 16%)

Delegate count (using Slate):

Clinton-55
Obama-48

Net Clinton +7 (May 20th only) (55/48 Clinton/Obama)

Net Obama +1 (NC, Indiana and WV) (108/107 Obama/Clinton)

All May Primaries Net Clinton +6

Total elected delegates removed from play 322