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Did Hillary overtake Obama in the popular yesterday?

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Buddyblazon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:38 AM
Original message
Did Hillary overtake Obama in the popular yesterday?
I heard a couple of Hillary people saying that this was going to happen yesterday with her big win in WV.

I don't know where to find the estimated popular vote (because we don't know the exact numbers in caucus states)...so I don't know if they're prognosticating, in fact, came true.

Someone's gotta know.


Though...this is a race of delegates and it doesn't matter the popular vote...I know people will be using it for their arguments.
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
1. No. She gained appx. 120K in the popular totals.
Still back half a million.
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rurallib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:39 AM
Original message
do you count Florida and Michigan?
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. Sure
Edited on Wed May-14-08 08:40 AM by Jake3463
If you subtract all Obama's wins in caucus states because they don't matter and you count Michigan and Florida and assume that everyone in Michigan hates him and wouldn't vote for him and 0 is an appropriate measure of his support there.
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Hepburn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
3. No...
...she did not come close on this...unless one counts the populations of Bosnia and Outer Mongolia.
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SwampG8r Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
4. there is no popular vote when there are caucus votes
thats the bottom line
and no she didnt even bring the voters out in WV worst count in years
they voted for her but more stayed home than in recent years
and she didnt hit bills must have 80% either
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Buddyblazon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. So...
her "must have" number gets higher now? Am I correct? (Rhetorical question).

How many PLEDGED DELEGATES left? How many is she behind by?

How many SUPER DELEGATES left? How many is she behind by?
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. Go to realclearpolitics.com
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Buddyblazon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. RCP has him...
17 away from 1900 in total delegates.

Anybody want to guess when he will hit 1900? I'm going to say by the weekend.


Anybody want to guess when he will hit 2000? I'm not going to attempt that one.
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SwampG8r Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. i think before friday he will be there
for the news cycle over the weekend
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:42 AM
Response to Original message
5. In Denver, the delegates will decide.
Senator Obama will arrive in Denver with the most delegates.

Senator Clinton has lost the nomination.
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Buddyblazon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. I'm a stage hand in Denver...
I'm going to make a boatload of cash from the convention.

WOO HOO!!!!!
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mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:42 AM
Response to Original message
6. No.
They want to count Puerto Rico in the metric (which doesn't vote in the General Election) and MI and Florida as is and to knee cap the one winning to have the SDs overturn the results so far. Also, Caucus states populations don't count towards popular vote. This is a win at any cost with any argument campaign for them.
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mohc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:47 AM
Response to Original message
10. Depends
Without Florida or Michigan: Obama leads by 673,062
With Florida and Michigan: Obama leads by 49,981
With Florida and Michigan, but without caucus estimates: Clinton leads by 60,241

The latter being a completely absurd metric, including non-binding contests while excluding binding contests.
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graycem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:47 AM
Response to Original message
11. Nope.
When they tell you that, it's because they're counting MI/FL, AS IS, giving him NONE from Michigan, and NOT counting caucus states. She may be able to fool her supporters, but she won't be fooling the Superdelegates.
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Buddyblazon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 08:51 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. But he wasn't even on the ballot in MI...
how could they use HER popular vote count from MI...when he had zero because he wasn't included in the contest?
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FlaGranny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. Indeed, how could they?
But they are.
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graycem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #13
21. Because
Edited on Wed May-14-08 10:26 AM by graycem
many things they do defy logic. Whatever it takes to appear she's winning from at least SOME angle. That's what makes the Michigan argument even more absurd. She doesn't even want him to have the "uncommitted" votes. It doesn't matter, because it's not true, and like I said, she's only fooling her supporters. Giving them false hope. The SD's know the real score. :shrug:
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canadian_is_cold Donating Member (207 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 09:13 AM
Response to Original message
15. nope
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
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MaineDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
17. Impossible to tell
There is no way to accurately count national popular vote.
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redqueen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 09:19 AM
Response to Original message
18. If you include the two states that broke the rules that people in her campaign agreed to...
AND just don't count any of the voters in caucus states whose state party leaders AREN'T complete and total morons... then yes.

In reality, though, no.
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Apollo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 09:27 AM
Response to Original message
19. The popular vote is pretty much tied at this point
The best available numbers for the national popular vote is on Real Clear Politics.

17,014,911 people already voted for Barack Obama (47.7%)

16,934,160 people already voted for Hillary Clinton (47.5%)

The difference is 80,000 votes (0.22% of the total).

These numbers include all of the caucus States plus Florida and Michigan.

In Michigan, where Obama was not on the ballot, 238,168 people voted "uncommitted".

Even if you give all those votes to Obama - it is still relatively close.
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
20. If you just count
the states she won, then yes, she's ahead.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
22. No. She's still behind. They counted FL and MI, and discounted caucus attendance.
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