Poblano Model: Obama Wins Oregon By 13 Points!

Interesting models - to run least squares on polling data, and then run monte carlo a jillion times to get an estimate.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/oregon-projection-obama-by-13.html

I have beaten this particular horse to death, but if you went looking for a state that is white and working class, Oregon wouldn't be a bad place to end up. Just 1.6 percent of Oregonians are African-American (though it does have its share of Hispanic and Asian voters). It ranks below the national average in income levels while having one of the nation's higher unemployment rates.
...
The model is projecting an Obama margin of approximately 13 points on turnout of about 570,000 voters, which would represent around 70 percent of registered Democrats in the state. Because Oregon's mail balloting has produced relatively strong turnouts in previous elections, this turnout figure may be slightly low, but it is difficult to conceive of turnout of more than about 650,000 in this closed primary. I have, by the way, switched back to estimating turnout as a function of the age-eligible population in the district rather than the number of Kerry voters, which turns out to be the more reliable way to do it.

In general, I highly recommend Poblano's site. He knows math.

That 538,000 ballots have already been returned.

Waiting on Al at The Field to offer his take as well. http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/

or just a medium to small state. I know that's important too. :sarcasm:

I love it.

:P

You don't do that if you think it will be close.

from earlier. Steve Law from the Portland Tribune, was on msnbc - say that Hibbets reports that the Suffox poll *amongst other errors* had at least 10% of the results from Independents. Who don't vote in Oregon democratic primaries (I am one - we are not allowed to per party rules, which is why some independents who felt strongly for Obama switched their affiliations to democrat in the weeks prior to the ballot delivery).

Also, the poll skewed its numbers in the "old vs. young" to reflect how things would happen in a low voter turnout, which favored older voters, which tipped their poll results way more to Hillary.

Except this is going to be an exceptionally high voter turnout, which should have tipped their poll results to Obama. Hibbets said basically the Suffox poll showing only 4 percent difference isn't accurate at all.