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Obama's map....as promised.

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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:09 PM
Original message
Obama's map....as promised.
I've referenced Obama's map previously, in response to some other posts. I said I'd seen it somewhere and would look for it and post it. I found it....here it is. Seems to be a strategy from March '08. Of course, the GE results won't exactly match the map. They never do. But it's an interesting look-see at the path to winning the GE by Obama. Don't know if Obama camp provided the map, or this is someone's gleaning of the map, based on Obama camp strategy.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. Obama will win PA and NJ, the latter easily
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Labors of Hercules Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. And he has just as good a chance in NC as he does in VA.
Just sayin'. *nods*
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #12
42. Old Map... The New Map has Obama losing to McCain
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ekwhite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #42
43. You actually posted KARL ROVE's map?
Nothing disingenous about that... :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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Labors of Hercules Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #42
45. Do you live in North Carolina?
Because if you did, I would be ashamed to call you a fellow North Carolinian, much less a fellow Democrat. :grr:
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JerseygirlCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #1
25. That's what I was thinking, too.
It looks like the results under the map have it a tie, but the map has it red... I'm not sure I think it will be even that close.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
34. Map is wrong - SUSA's own 5/17 poll has Obama +8
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gcomeau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
2. That's a pretty pessimistic map.
Edited on Tue May-20-08 07:13 PM by gcomeau
Obama losing New Jersey? Not going to happen.

Obama losing PA? Unlikely.
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muryan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. A few states have switched
Mccain is favored ever so slighty in Ohio, where as Obama is making up big ground in PA/NJ. Either or its a winning map, with the possibility of VA/NC
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
19. I know. But figure he'll win more than indicated, but maybe lose others? Note: No FL or PA needed.
No FL or PA needed to win. Interesting.
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rug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
3. It looks like you're being generous with Michigan and New Hampshire.
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #3
15. I don't know about NH, but I think MI will go Dem.... he economy here is so bad, and we blame Shrub
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #3
21. The Steel Union has endorsed him. Won't that help in PA and MI? And Edwards? nt
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rug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #21
38. Edwards hasn't helped in KY. The unions will have a far bigger impact I think.
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
4. Good start, but I believe it'll be much more lopsided than that.
People are seriously OVER-estimating McCain's chances in the GE.
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. Agreed...the Dem noninee, whoever it is, will win in a landslide
Everybody but the most deluded imbeciles knows it, too.

Correction: huge landslide. Reaganesque in electoral lop-sidedness.
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maddiejoan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
5. It's missing
the other seven states.
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casus belli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. They're running from sniper fire. n/t
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
6. O has a 10 Pt lead in Ohio ??? wow. I see VA is 47 47. Guess we
need Webb, huh.
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Ian David Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
7. Now subtract about 3 million votes to account for voter suppression and cheating. n/t
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #7
23. LOL LOL! (wait...that's a little too close to the truth to be funny.) nt
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:16 PM
Response to Original message
8. Throw in PA and NJ and you've got it pretty close
Edited on Tue May-20-08 07:24 PM by featherman
SUSA is a terrible outlier in NJ. Poblano has a poll of polls average of Obama +8.8. The most recent poll (Gannett 4/26) has Obama +14

And why is PA marked for McCain when SUSA's own poll from 5/17 has Obama up 8%? Strange sense of humor.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:16 PM
Response to Original message
10. Is this real from SUSA? or doctored up? Are these the current
hypothetical poll numbers?
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
35. It's the real survey usa site. Here's the link.
Guess I should've posted the link, too.

But it is:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258
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GreenInNC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
14. Don't write off NC
I am seeing Obama signs in many places I would expect to see them.
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tpsbmam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #14
49. ITA -- there's a good chance NC could go "blue" in November....
We'll probably still be stuck with Dole (puke) but it may well vote Democratic in the presidential GE.
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Secret_Society Donating Member (466 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
16. What the crap is this?
Obama loses PA and NJ. I highly doubt he would do that. And if he did how would he win Ohio. Also, North freakin Dakota.
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Jersey Devil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
17. Oh please! McCain wins NJ? ROFL
I love it! This happens every election cycle. Some poll shows the Repubs have a chance here and they blow a lot of money here and lose. But there ain't no way in hell NJ is going Republican, especially this year.
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gcomeau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #17
28. The last NJ poll I saw...
...had Obama up 24 points.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. That's good news. Actually, when you look at the est. numbers for NJ, it's almost a tie....
so they figured it'd be close and that the Repubs would edge it out.

I think this is a conservative map.

I think this map is a good sign for things to come in the GE.
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Uben Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
18. Maps mean squat to us Clinton supporters
We wanna see Obama kick McCain's ass in every state! I think we will do much better than what they have predicted here. A strategically selected Veep will sew it up!
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #18
27. Yes,I thought it was a conservative map, too. But he still wins comfortably, which is the pt.!nt
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:23 PM
Response to Original message
20. Here's my map for May 20th, not from SUSA


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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #20
31. Good map but I'd throw in ND - keep an eye on that one
Missouri and Montana both in play but are strictly gravy this year.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #20
36. This one works for me, too. nt
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:23 PM
Response to Original message
22. NC and SC are both close according to SUSA...
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #22
37. I'm wondering if he could win one of those. nt
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
24. Oh yeah... I just remembered...
Notice Nebraska up there?

Unlike the other 49 states, it's not winner take all.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #24
33. neither is Maine
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Beregond2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
26. I wouldn't be surprised to see Montana
go blue. They have been trending that direction recently, and have a terrific Dem governor. Plus, Obama went there during the primaries, which is rare if not unheard of.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. I think so, too. nt
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tabasco Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:26 PM
Response to Original message
29. No way in hell will PA go red after eight years of Boosh.
Of course, you already said you were being pessimistic.
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phillysuse Donating Member (683 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
39. Bob Barr will take votes from McCain in Georgia and
with good African American turnout there, Obama may just win Georgia.
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deadmessengers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #39
47. self-delete
Edited on Wed May-21-08 07:51 AM by deadmessengers
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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
40. why would mccain lose ND
and why wouldn't BO win NJ:shrug:
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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 12:39 AM
Response to Original message
41. How solid is Ohio for Obama? If he loses Penn, Fla, and Ohio, it would be hard for him to win. nt
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #41
44. He'll win PA.
No problem. Ohio is a bigger problem.

And isn't that map a bit old?
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baldguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 07:43 AM
Response to Original message
46. Add PA and NJ along with FL
And at least two other Southern states.
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deadmessengers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 07:51 AM
Response to Original message
48. Obama winning in North Dakota? I call BS on that.
That doesn't sound right to me at ALL. I see that the poll says he's up by 4, but the idea of Obama winning ND doesn't even pass the giggle test. I'm sure someone here will tell me all about how progressive North Dakotans are, but it just doesn't make sense to me. Bush won there in 2000 and 2004 by a 27% margin - it wasn't even close.
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