OR RESULTS: So much for the myth that White Working Class voters don't like Obama or his race...

Douglas County, south of Eugene (THE VERY DEFINITION OF "BACKWOODS") -- 48% Obama

Josephine and Curry County (remote areas, redwoods) -- Obama 50-50 and 52-48

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OR

Hood River (farm country) -- 60-40 Obama

Deschutes County (Bend, Oregon -- in the middle of the desert) 70-30 Obama

53-47 Obama in ALL the Southern Suburban counties around Portland

(heavily white, non-yuppie, working class/middle class, semi-rural exurbs)

This is where Tonya Harding grew up.

Some of these towns had a skinhead reputation.
Not a single white-flight suburban collar county voted for Clinton.

Obama lost by very narrow (49%) margins Clatsop and Tillamook (logging country)

The TV show "Axe men" is shot here.

Obama won Benton County (Corvallis, farm country) by HUGE margin (70-30)

Wasco County -- Columbia River Gorge -- exact tie (1,676 - 1,676)

Wallowa County -- Snake River Canyon -- Idaho border Obama up big (58-42)

Malheur County -- high desert -- suburbs of Boise Idaho -- Obama lost narrowly 54-46

Harney County -- middle of the desert -- ranchers only -- Obama lost 51-49

The only rural county where Clinton broke 60% was Morrow County.

Obama won a majority of all rural counties and lost by very narrow margins
in every other rural county except for Morrow.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#KY

Obama did not break 11% of the vote in a SINGLE county (out of 20 or so)
in Appalachian rural Kentucky, which is the HEART of the Kentucky DEMOCRATIC
party. The further you go west of Appalachia, the more percentage Obama gets,
suggesting that this is PURELY about race and cultural xenophobia in Appalachia.

We will lose Appalachia for 50 years if the Dems elect a black man President.

It is sad but they have been decieved by the false teachings of heretical Baptist preachers
preaching a doctrine of self-reliance and easy money and "undeserving black people" holding
them down so they won't blame globalization or business owners for making selfish decisions.

We have made our choice and they must now make theirs. Bye, bye Appalachia.

Obama must compete for every Appalachian vote he can if he is sincere about being a
populist candidate (which I HIGHLY DOUBT, sadly -- just look at his failure to campaign
in Obama-friendly areas of Appalachia). That said, he should NOT go into certain parts
of KY or WV because these people are OFF THE F'N CHAIN and OFF THE RESERVATION ("It's BAHBLE!
Obama is a SON OF CAIN!") and it would be hazardous to Obama's health to venture into these
"sundown towns", quite frankly.

He will have better luck appealing to rural people in the Deep South, at least they are
not afraid to interact with black people on a day to day basis even if they hate them.

And he can win enough of the vote to scare McCain in states like Louisiana and NC, which
he must NOT simply concede after all the evils that have been committed against the
residents of New Orleans and globalization in NC. If he writes them off in November he
will basically be saying "yeah, you tore down all your public housing, I'm cool with
that. It's a local issue and Louisiana deserves to mistreat its inner cities as they
see fit, I'm a national candidate and I'm not going to tell red states what to do."

Oh wait, I will have to wait not long to here all the buts!

Which state has more of them.... Oregon or Kentucky?


I think the numbers from OR show the lack of an Operation Chaos influence. Not too many Rush fans in OR.

KY and WV, while I suspect would have still gone to Hillary, were clear examples of Operation Chaos in full effect.



Funny how Rush, and Rove, and Scaife all seem to be backing hillary and none of her followers seem to find that a bit odd.

the Democratic Party from within, Clinton style.

("If we can't reclaim the party of George Wallace and William Jennings Bryan, we'll destroy it.")

That's why they claimed the fake populist mantle, because Clinton's model for populism is Reagan.

NONE of these people needed to switch parties to follow Rush's lead. They are the same people
who reliably vote for the least Democratic candidate in the primaries and then vote Republican
in the fall. They are the whole reason for the DLC and the urban and rural Blue Dogs influence
on the party. White yuppie candidates like Clinton rely on the support of disaffected working
class voters who believe in "a message of self reliance for poor people who don't look like me."

Salem is a reliably republican city and small-town capital of Oregon. It would be like Obama winning Albany or Schenectady. I have been thru these areas they are chock full of "bitter" Oregon natives who don't like Portland ("too many hippie Californians") and tiny logging hamlets devastated by the loss of logging jobs in the Cascades

(even while the Federal Government continues to pave over the temperate rainforest to make logging roads in just about every 100 acres of the Cascades, the logging interests continue to lay off workers because it is all about efficiency and cheap lumber -- loggers are hopefully beginning to realize their interests are not the same as the "cut and run" Republicans.)

The best word to describe Salem is "middling." Middle-of-the-road politics, Middle-American mentality, middle-class, in the middle of Portland and Eugene, in the middle of the Willamette Valley, in the middle of the Cascades and the Coast. Obama's results there in fact probably match exactly with the Gallup National Tracking Poll--because it's a middling place.

Great place to grow up, though. Truly.

(Obama 5% - 15% vote total counties correspond almost exactly with
Appalachian geo-cultural region and with mountaintop coal mining areas)

all along that OR would be this way. People around the country really don't know much about the Northwest I find. They think all the "liberals" are in the cities, but the old Labor Democrats have never died out here, and they have never been impressed by the free trade Clintons. Given another option, of course they are going to jump at it.

geographically, it's on the very edge of the desert, with more forest than desert

culturally, it has become one of the model cities of the "New West"--leans liberal, sophisticated, trendy, fine dining that is, per capita, second to no other city, etc. I hate to admit it (as a native Oregonian), but the influx of Californians to Bend has been a good thing. And one can still escape to the desert by driving a couple miles.

I'm happy with the Wallowa Co. results. It's one of my stomping grounds, and I know some old time cowboys up there. Anti-federal gov types, but definitely not partisan repubs

I guess times have changed and they've gone more eco-tourism.

I never understood why Oregonians don't do something about all that desert. Most people think it's a heavily forested state.

It's gone through an amazing Renaissance....It's up there with places like Bozeman and Boise as among the most desirable smallish Western cities to live in.

Bend has very progressive city planning--take a drive around town if you happen to pass through again.

We didn't know who the hell they were. :rofl: Wait 'til I tell my daughter.

And yeah, those numbers are fantastic. I am so proud of all of us tonight. :hi:

and some local figures to talk to people in Appalachia, and convince and promise them he will pay attention to their concerns, he might turn a few around. I don't think there's per se necessarily bigotry, more like mistrust, going on with this demographic. If they can be set at ease with him, that he's working for them, and they know McCain won't, I believe they can be won over--and Obama will have the resources, I believe to do this. Even working on a 50-state strategy, he's going to have the bucks to outspend McCain, and he easily out-talks McCain regardless, so a little effort here--in Western PA, WV, in Kentucky...might not really be foolish (well, at least, I'd definitely try for it in Western PA since PA is a big state and he'll need it. I know Philly has his back, but...winning over some coal counties wouldn't hurt.)

18%-21% in Josephine and Cook County, redwood country near Northern California.

has more civil war memories.

Seven of whom were ALL on the Kentucky border and ALL constitute the "MOUNTAINTOP REMOVAL AREA" part of WV/Kentucky:

Logan -- Lincoln -- Wayne -- Mingo (Obama 8%) -- Wyoming -- Boone

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WV

OBAMA GOT 15% OR LESS -- in 9 COUNTIES IN WESTERN (non-appalachian) Kentucky --

whereas anything under 20% in West Virginia is unusually low even for
West Virginia, it is almost a RESPECTABLE SHOWING in Kentucky Counties
such as Ballard (Monkey's Elbow, Kentucky):

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#KY

Now let us turn to EASTERN (Appalachia) KENTUCKY, the heart of the problem.

starting with Clinton County (Obama 7%) which is the tip of the spear:

A meridian line exists just east and south of Lexington where almost EVERY COUNTY is Obama 15% or less.

It seems to correspond with the borders of Appalachian plateau.

Starting with Russell and Clinton counties and moving east,

OBAMA GOT 15% OR LESS IN ALL BUT THREE COUNTIES OF APPALACHIAN EASTERN KENTUCKY,

40 COUNTIES OUT OF 43 IN APPALACHIA ALONE, or 49 counties

including the nine Obama 15% losses elsewhere in Kentucky.

with his returns dropping to 5% the closer you get to the Mountaintop Removal area along the
remote Kentucky / West Virginia border (the same area where ALL of the <15% Obama losses are
concentrated in West Virginia).

In other words, WV was merely the tip of an iceberg of Appalachian "white mistrust" of Obama,
the VAST BULK of which is concentrated in a single area -- western Kentucky Appalachia and
the mountaintop removal areas specifically. The returns in West Virginia were merely a
side effect of the hatred the people in this neighboring state seem to have for Obama.

This is a cultural issue which does not make sense to me -- it is as if the Appalachian voters
in Kentucky feel that Obama is going to come and take away their "culture and heritage".

They are already screwed over economically and they have no national security to worry about
(if anything, the feds bomb THEM routinely because the major cash crop is marijuana.)

And these are not just rabid Republican counties -- some are, and these people are at the
forefront of the Reagan Dems voting 95% - 5% for Clinton, but some of them are yellow dog
democratic counties that voted for Gore and Kerry.

The only measuring stick seems to be not economic politics, not culture, but whether
or not they were "sundown counties" a mere 25 years ago where black people would be
murdered or jailed after dark.

In other words, irrational hatred of dark-skinned people,
regardless of politics or whether it is a "red" county or a "blue" county.

I don't have the right software to convert CNN info to a Jpeg.

The county by county returns are here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#KY

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WV

What I want to do is highlight the counties in red
where Obama got 15% or less of the vote.

It would correspond almost EXACTLY with the following map:

MAP OF APPALACHIAN GEOGRAPHIC COAL AREA, BY COUNTIES



Counties depicted on this map where Barack got ANYTHING OVER 15% of the vote: (10)

Monroe -- Cumberland -- Adair -- Green (trailing edge of Appalachia, Obama barely over 15%)

Barnard -- Madison -- Clark (trailing edge of Appalachia, exurbs of Lexington)

Rowan -- Boyd -- Pulaski (Obama by 17%) (islands in a sea of CLINTON RED -- outliers? college towns?)

Note that most of the counties depicted on the map above are not even close to 10% Obama,
and decrease the further east you go,

whereas everywhere else in rural western (non-appalachian lowland) Kentucky,
Obama gets 10-30% of the vote and no less by default:

Counties ANYWHERE ELSE in Kentucky where Obama got 15% OR LESS of the vote: (8)

Nicholas 14% (trailing edge of Appalachia, outside of Lexington)

Edmonson 13% -- Green 15% -- Allen 15% -- Trimble 15% (Bluegrass region)

Ballard 15% -- Carlisle 12% -- Livingston 11% (Mississippi Delta)

And that is it.



Kentucky has 120 Counties.

On the ragged western edge of the coal / mountain region, including the Louisville exurban farmland.

Also note that the Obama 10%-15% and the Obama 5%-10% areas correspond roughly with the
geologic / mining areas breakdown that seems to define where different groups of rural
voters live. The dark area is more yellow dog Democratic AND more virulently anti-Obama,
including counties that voted for Gore and Kerry; the light area is solidly Republican.



Here is where I got the map from:

http://gatton.uky.edu/cber/Downloads/Roenker02.htm

Does rural Kentucky hate Louisville? On a Kentucky forum, a Kentucky native quotes a local article:

I read yesterday that alot of rural Kentuckians see Louisville as "sin city" and full of "Northern Values"
and don't like us. Is that true? It breaks my heart to think that the state that I love so much doesn't
love me back :-(

http://www.city-data.com/forum/kentucky/236059-does-rural-kentucky-hate-louisville.html

"Sin city" seems to translate roughly to "brown-skinned people and white students who are willing to associate with them."

It seems to be as simple as that.

There's no good reason why any Democrat - even H-Clinton - should be pleased with these numbers. They show the persistence of hardened racial attitudes that have been the case since before the Civil War. Scary.

Counties won by Kerry (Focus on West Virginia and Kentucky for the moment):



Coal Mining and Anthracite Regions (rough boundaries of Appalachian Plateau and Appalachian Core Range)



Mountaintop Removal Areas -- all the mountainous areas depicted in red are scheduled to be flattened.



Mountaintop Removal Areas, West Virginia (three of the six southwestern WV counties that were Obama <15%)

That is in West Virginia.

In Kentucky, the ONLY counties (except Louisville) that voted Kerry were those in Appalachia,

and all but one of the Kerry counties (Rowan, Obama 17%) is within the Obama 5-10% region of Kentucky.

Claim that Kerry and her represent the same wing of the party?

What is that, the fake populist wing?

Kerry was an honest to god Liberal. Clinton is deceitful and pandering to the worst elements.

If Barack Obama were white he'd be winning the Appalachian yellow-dog Kerry counties.

The only counties in Kentucky that went for Kerry were 7 of the Appalachian counties.

Instead he is getting 5% of the vote there.

The only counties in West Virginia that went for Kerry were 7 of the SW counties near Kentucky.

They also line up almost exactly in WV with

(a) Mountaintop Removal areas (Boone, Logan, Mingo etc.)

(b) The ONLY counties in WV that voted Obama 15% or less

What does that tell us?

What about Obama's policies with regard to Mountaintop Removal,

or the culture of White Strip Mine Workers in the Lower Appalachian Plateau,

is at issue here that placed them so solidly PRO-Kerry and ANTI-Obama,

such that the ONLY areas that voted for Kerry are also the ONLY areas
where Obama got less than 10-15% of the vote?

And line up solidly with MTR areas?

Has there been a conversion in favor of MTR? Did Kerry defend MTR?

Or is this about the culture and population of employed workers in
those counties who dislike African American workers or Northern culture
and don't care if Yankees support making underground mining safer?

The seventh is Webster county in the middle of the state. Clay is at 16% near Charleston (Kanawha County, 62-34).

Clay and Webster are outliers, almost every WV county voted 20-25% Obama.

South of the Boone-Logan-Mingo strip-miningplex, they are the norm.

Boone 14% Logan 11% Mingo 8% and across the KY border you get Obama 5% of the vote.

Hillary Clinton was HATED, HATED, HATED by these rural voters only a year or two ago.

She told them literally to go f--k themselves back in 1994.

She has UTTERLY TRANSFORMED HERSELF into Mrs. White Ethnic NIMBY
protecting "the nabes" against black people and "liberal elitists
who want to coddle dark-skinned from the inner city as they
invade our heartland."

That is the only source of her newfound popularity.

That and this mountaintop removal thing, apparently.

See my analysis up-thread.

The coal mining counties coincide amnost EXACTLY with:

** The few Appalachian counties that voted for Dukakis, Gore and Kerry.

** The same Appalachian counties gave Barack less than 10% of the vote!

My wife and I live near Louisville/Ft. Knox and have professional positions which provide contact with a wide variety of families. We have been here for many years, but came from other regions of the country. We have seen, heard, and received some training with many examples of Eastern KY "hill people" or Appalachians (including WV and TN in that region)---and had some visits. The overriding impression is of pockets of isolation, clannishness, and reluctance to leave the area or readily accept newcomers. Children of these families who are somehow transplanted to our area tend to be shy outsiders who experience some version of culture shock at first. Adults (such as teachers or technically trained folks) who leave Eastern KY and move here frequently say that their families don't visit, don't like to leave home, feel uncomfortable or inferior in suburban settings. And, the fundamental religious influence is noticeable.

So--we are talking about the small populations of the counties in question, who may indeed have very little exposure to those of other races. There is plenty of room for cultural xenophobia. It's fading, but it's there.
In most basic terms, it would be easier for supporters of candidates other than Obama to engage that population and I believe that's what happened this month.

In backwoods areas so long as they are not TOO squalid.

I'm not a huge fan of cleanliness and order.

I hate suburbs.

Kentucky and other recent states have seen the white working class pick Clinton in their primaries.

Virginia
Wisconsin
Maryland
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Washington
Maine
Vermont
North Dakota
Kansas
Nebraska
....and on and on and on....

obama has a very good chance at winning this state in november, especially if webb is on his team.

won't vote for him.

if that is your intent. You are supposed to be 'the change people'...so where is 'the change', when in this world you can get cussed out on the freeway by some road raged lunatic. Do you think the average person's capacity for such abuse is limitless :shrug: