21.3% to 82% and The Math

Interesting numbers.

According to DemConWatch, Obama needs 64 more delegates at this point to win and Hillary needs 246.

There are a total of 300 remaining delegates, 86 pledged and 214 Super.

That means Obama needs 21.3% of the remaining delegates to win and Hillary needs 82% of the remaining delegates to win.

As has been demonstrated since February, this has been a war of attrition and after each primary is held, it becomes more difficult for Hillary Clinton to win. Every day where she does not take 82% of all super delegates who endorse is another day where she falls further behind.

As an example, if five super delegates endorse today and four of them endorse Hillary, that's just not good enough and she'll fall even further behind because there are 5 less delegates up for grabs,.

My bet is that itll be 2138, so the math now is a bit irrelevant unless he hits 2025 before the 31st...which is unlikely.

He should eb able to easily take 64 delegates between now and the 31st.

The only way he won't will be if it's pretty certain the meeting on the 31st will not substantially alter the course of this race, in which case the math remains the same. This would be to allow Hillary a graceful exit.

If she looks like she's going to fight for the committee to alter the results of this contest, he'll definitely reach 2025 before the 31st.

Bank on it.

the best Hillary can do with the FL and MI delegates is 55% (imho). If they give her more than that, it will blow the party apart.

So of the 83 to 105 delegates to be awarded from FL and MI (numbers from MSNBC last night) she'll get at most 60 of them and he'll get 45.

The math on that is still pretty daunting for her.

I dont think anything will come out of the 31st that changes things in her favor, in fact I think by it maintaining the status quo it will hammer one of the last nails in the coffin. Obama will still be in striking distance of locking up the nomination, and in my opinion he will

Of course the numbers change after the 31st.. However, As more supers come in it will become even more Obvious.

At least, it won't alter appreciably,...

And Obama's requirements should decrease almost daily between now and then...

There are supers that haven't been named yet in states that have had or will have primaries so the total of superdelegates will be increased by a few more.

Those delegates are already in my calculations, even though they have not been named yet.