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Obama could lose PR, Montana, SD, Florida and Michigan by 70% to 30%.........

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KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:08 PM
Original message
Obama could lose PR, Montana, SD, Florida and Michigan by 70% to 30%.........
And still lead the elected delegate count. And is ahead by 27 in the SUper Delegate count!

Everyone forgets Obama won 12 in a row by over 16% after Super Tuesday!

LOL....how much more out of control can this get?

Hillary needs a math lesson. And a reality lesson. And a financial lesson. And a "Graceful Exit" lesson.
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kid a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:09 PM
Response to Original message
1. Yep...(but he'll win MT) ;)
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Obama will win South Dakota, too, in the primary. NT
NT
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Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. is there a recent poll on this?
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KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. No polls needed. Just use Slates Delegate calculator.
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. April poll: "Dakota Wesleyan University Poll: Obama 46%-Clinton 34%"
http://www.badlandsblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=737

========

In addition, Obama's victories in MN and WI make me confident that he'll win the primary in SD.
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. He'll annihilate her in MT.
We're being swarmed with ads from Obama.

Hillary? I've yet to see or hear a single one.
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HCE SuiGeneris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. Sorry. Montana doesn't count. Just ask her.
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:10 PM
Response to Original message
2. Just two more weeks.
I hope she doesn't run negative TV ads in the final two weeks, but otherwise, whatever.
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cloudythescribbler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
6. Obama could lose all those contests by 100% to 0% and still lead in pledged delegates ...
that's kinda what getting an "absolute majority" means.

But will the dynamics of the remainder of the election be such that Obama will gain enough delegates so that no matter WHAT is done with MI and FL, he would still have a majority of the pledged delegates, and also reach the re-re-re-moved goalposts of the HRC campaign of 2210 delegates? I think that the polls suggest that he very well might. (There have been predictions of a floodgate of pledged delegates opening, but they might be savvy and trying to bargain for something for their support ... )

I am not sure what the dynamics have been, or what back-room deals have been cut already. Think of any SD who made an agreement with Hillary to support her in return for ________, and now just might as well support Barack, as HRC can't deliver. (On the other hand, one of the things that might keep her campaigning is to get Obama to honor the back-room commitments SHE made with SDs to get them to come out for her ...

The whole process sucks, but Obama managed to climb a VERY steep slope constructed to prevent the success of an insurgent candidacy like his.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
9. I went to the Cnn delegate caculator
I gave Hillary 100% of the vote for PR she gets all 55 delegates
South Dakota has 15 delegates gave Hillary 8-7 advantage, Montana has 16, split them 8-8
split SD 50-50

You know what Hillary does not even catch up to what Obama has now

have some fun

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
10. You have to concede one thing to Hillary: She fights hard when power is on the line.
If Democrats fought as hard for the Constitution and the rule of law as Hillary has fought this campaign, we wouldn't be where we are today.
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Ganja Ninja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
11. Every pledge delegate Obama gains from now on is ...
one less super-delegate he'll need at the convention. Things look bad for Hillary's chances.
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billyoc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-21-08 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
12. And a ride to the New York state border, if it's not too much trouble.
:hi:
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