A little snapshot of the future for ya.

Scenario: Obama superdelegates continue to trickle in at a rate of 2 per day. Clinton superdelegates come in at a rate of 1 per day.


Clinton wins Puerto Rico, 56% to 44%, gaining 31 delegates vs 24 for Obama.

Obama wins Montana, 56% to 44%, gaining 9 delegates vs 7 for Clinton.
Obama wins South Dakota, 56% to 44%, gaining 8 delegates vs 7 for Clinton.


Total new delegates by June 3: Obama 41 Pledged, 26 Super.
Total new delegates by June 3: Clinton 45 Pledged, 13 Super.








Obama clinches the nomination by present rules (w/o MI and FL) with his victories in MT and SD on June 3.

Obama needs just 49.5% of the remaining Superdelegates to clinch the nomination under rules that would include MI and FL delegates -- and this is WITHOUT ANY of the 55 "Uncommitted" MI delegates. Clinton would need 88.1% of the Superdelegates under the same scenario.

And clearly, there's no way that Clinton would be allowed to keep all her Michigan delegates on May 31 while Obama got none of the Uncommitted delegates. If those 55 delegates went to Obama, he'd need just 22.3% of the remaining Supers to clinch the nomination. Worst case scenario for him (and EXTREMELY unlikely), he only gets 40 of them - he'd still clinch with 29.7% of the remaining Supers while Clinton would need 80.7% of them.

It's hard to see how Obama is not the Presumptive Democratic Nominee after June 3.

Must be some people out there just trollin' through the GP. Interesting.

Hillary can squawk all she wants on the convention floor, but it's not going to do a damn bit of good. She will be reduced to stomping her feet while the rest of us are uniting around our nominee. A lot can happen between then an August, anyway.

She has way too much grace and dignity.

;)

and figure out that it's so totally negative and it turns MANY DEMOCRATS COMPLETELY OFF.

Peace, love and happiness,

Radio Lady in Oregon

Was you. Some Democrats are also turned off by ALL CAPS. It harshes my mellow.

Do you doubt that? So what?

Don't like all CAPS? Sorry. Please avoid ALL my posts in the FUTURE. BTW, The FUTURE is NOW.

Goodbye, Alcibiades.

<<Aldibiades exits and blows steaming crap at other people...>>

Breathe deeply, and try to think of something pleasant. :hug:

A nice post goes along till it hits the GP. Then negativity descends upon it, because certain people want to make sure it's clear that it doesn't actually belong on the GP. A back-and-forth ensues, further kicking the post and giving it more exposure - thus increasing the number of recs and essentially doing the exact opposite of what the thread attackers would like.

It's interesting.

I want a much bigger win in South Dakota, giving at least 10 delegates to Obama.

:)

Surrounding South Dakota and Montana by around 30%

Except Iowa, where he still won handily.

That happens in 2 days when I turn 40.

:party:

Thank you...

K&R

:patriot:

Clinton superdelegates come in at a rate of 1 per day.

I was not aware of this. All of the reports are that Obama has been getting a steady trickle of SD's and I'd not heard that any had trickled towards Clinton. I'd also heard that quite a few SD's and PD's for Clinton had changed their minds and gone to Obama (John Lewis springs to mind).

Since you seem to have great data and I may have just missed it, why do you say that Clinton is getting about one new SD a day?

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/superdelegate-history-tracker.html

From 4/13 to 5/18, (5 weeks), Obama has gained 74.5 supers and Clinton has gained 27.5 supers.
That's an average of 14.9 per week for Obama, 5.5 per week for Clinton.

Being generous to Clinton, I rounded Obama down to 14 per week and rounded Clinton up to 7 per week for purposes of the above analysis.

It doesn't really matter how many she gets as much as it matters how many he gets. I don't think any of the Superdelegates want to be the one who puts in the final endorsement bringing Obama up to 2,025; so they'll probably just keep trickling in the way they have been, allowing the voters in the final 3 primaries to actually finish it.

Then once he's the presumptive nominee already, the rest will probably follow since it'll be easy for them to say he's already won it, and that will bring him up to a number high enough that there would be no way for Clinton to win it no matter how MI and FL are counted (including the nuclear option of not giving Obama any delegates at all from MI).

Being generous to Clinton, I rounded Obama down to 14 per week and rounded Clinton up to 7 per week for purposes of the above analysis.

That makes perfect sense. Even if you did the "non-generous" math and rounded Obama to 15 and Clinton to 5 per week, that's still pretty close to what you'd initially said.

usually I see graphs and I get nervous...

summary made it clear, sorta, thanks