99.999997%. Believe.

It's clear that Kerry would win the election if it were held
today, based on the average polling results (let's ignore the
Electoral College for now).

The latest 15 poll average of the two-party vote (see below)
has  Kerry at 52.22%.  If this were the result of just ONE
non-biased poll (assuming a 1000 sample size) the WIN
probability would be 92%.

Now it is very expensive to do a poll. That's why national
pollsters sample just 1,000 voters nationwide. This sample
size produces a margin of error (MoE) of 3%. This means that
if Kerry has a poll mean of 52.22%, there is a 95% probability
that he will get between 49.22% and 55.22% of the vote.

But we have FIFTEEN polls, not just ONE. Running 15 polls,
each with a sample size of 1,000 taken from the SAME voting
population of over 150 million registered voters, is
equivalent to running a SINGLE poll of 15,000. The current
Kerry statistical MEAN for the 15 polls is 52.22%. 

But the margin of error (MoE) around the mean is lower than
3%, because our sample size is now 15,000, not 1,000. In fact,
the MoE for a 15,000 sample size is a tight +/-0.80%. This
means there is a 95% probability that Kerry will get between
51.42% and 53.02% of the vote (a much smaller confidence
interval) were it held today. 

Ok, but we want to know what is the probability that Kerry
will get OVER 50% of the 2-party vote (just vs. Bush),
assuming a 15,000 sample size (or, equivalently, for 15 polls,
each with a 1,000 sample size)?

The answer is 99.999997%. You heard it here first.

Take a look at the following 15 individual polls. Then check
the probability matrix. This shows the probability of a Kerry
win over a range of polling averages (from 50.5% to 55.0%,
including his actual current 52.22% mean), over a range of
polling sample sizes, ranging from 1,000 to 15,000.

What's the point of all this? Simple. Kerry is in a much more
commanding position than the individual polls would indicate.
In fact, he is a SURE THING if, and its a big IF, the election
were held today.

			
Latest Poll Results	Kerry%							
Date	Poll	Kerry	Bush	2-pty	MoE	
807	TIME	51	43	0.543	3.0	
804	FOX	46	43	0.517	4.0	
801	CNN	48	48	0.500	4.0	
721	LAT	48	46	0.511	3.0	
718	PEW	46	44	0.511	3.0	
												
806	IBD	49	43	0.533	3.5	
730	CBS	49	43	0.533	3.0	
805	DEMC	52	45	0.536	3.1	
802	ABC	52	45	0.536	3.0	
730	NWK	52	44	0.542	4.0	
												
729	ZOG	48	43	0.527	3.2	
806	AP	48	45	0.516	3.5	
721	NBC	45	47	0.489	3.4	
801	ARG	49	45	0.521	3.5	
722	QPAC	46	43	0.517	2.5	
												
												
N	1000											
Mean		48.60%	44.47%	52.22%	3.31%	
Median      48.00%	44.00%	52.13%	3.20%	
												
MoE	3.31%											
Std	1.690%										

If n= sample size,
MoE =1.96 / (2*sqrt(n))									
Std (standard deviation) =.5 / sqrt(n)	

	WIN PROBABILITY (AT LEAST 50% OF POP. VOTE)				
			(based on sample size and mean)									
												
Sample Sample Std	    Percent of two-party vote			
Size	MoE	Dev	50.5%	51.0%	52.0%	52.22% 53.0% 54.0%	55.0%			
												
					Win Probability Matrix						
600	4.00%	2.04%	59.7%	68.8%	83.6%	86.2%	92.9%	97.5%	99.3%
1000	3.10%	1.58%	62.4%	73.6%	89.7%	92.0%	97.1%	99.4%	99.9%
2000	2.19%	1.12%	67.3%	81.4%	96.3%	97.6%	99.6%	100.0% 100%
3000	1.79%	0.91%	70.8%	86.3%	98.6%	99.2%	99.9% 100.0% 100%
4000	1.55%	0.79%	73.6%	89.7%	99.4%	99.8%	100.0% 100.0% 100%
5000	1.39%	0.71%	76.0%	92.1%	99.8%	99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100%

6000	1.27%	0.65%	78.1%	93.9%	99.9%	100.0% 100.0% 100% 100%
7000	1.17%	0.60%	79.9%	95.3%	100.0	100.0% 100.0% 100 %100%	
8000	1.10%	0.56%	81.4%	96.3%	100.0	100.0% 100.0% 100% 100%	
9000	1.03%	0.53%	82.9%	97.1%	100.0	100.0% 100.0% 100% 100%	
10000	0.98%	0.50%	84.1%	97.7%	100.0 100.0% 100%.0 100% 100%

11000	0.93%	0.48%	85.3%	98.2%	100.0% 100.0% 100% 100%	100%
12000	0.89%	0.46%	86.3%	98.6%	100.0% 100.0% 100% 100%	100%
13000	0.86%	0.44%	87.3%	98.9%	100.0% 100.0% 100% 100%	100%
14000	0.83%	0.42%	88.2%	99.1%	100.0% 100.0% 100% 100%	100%
15000	0.80%	0.41%	89.0%	99.3%	100.0% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WIN PROBABILITY (AT LEAST 50% OF POP. VOTE)				
(based on sample size and mean)																			
Win Probability Matrix								

Sample Sample Std	    Percent of two-party vote			
Size	MoE	Dev	50.5%	51.0%	52.0%	52.22% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0%		

600	4.00%	2.04%	59.7%	68.8%	83.6%	86.2%	92.9%	97.5%	99.3%
1000	3.10%	1.58%	62.4%	73.6%	89.7%	92.0%	97.1%	99.4%	99.9%
2000	2.19%	1.12%	67.3%	81.4%	96.3%	97.6%	99.6%	100.0%
3000	1.79%	0.91%	70.8%	86.3%	98.6%	99.2%	99.9% 100.0% 
4000	1.55%	0.79%	73.6%	89.7%	99.4%	99.8%	100.0% 
5000	1.39%	0.71%	76.0%	92.1%	99.8%	99.9% 100.0% 

6000	1.27%	0.65%	78.1%	93.9%	99.9%	100.0% 
7000	1.17%	0.60%	79.9%	95.3%	100.0	
8000	1.10%	0.56%	81.4%	96.3%	100.0	
9000	1.03%	0.53%	82.9%	97.1%	100.0	
10000	0.98%	0.50%	84.1%	97.7%	100.0 

11000	0.93%	0.48%	85.3%	98.2%	100.0% 
12000	0.89%	0.46%	86.3%	98.6%	100.0% 
13000	0.86%	0.44%	87.3%	98.9%	100.0% 
14000	0.83%	0.42%	88.2%	99.1%	100.0% 
15000	0.80%	0.41%	89.0%	99.3%	100.0%