Uberpundit Charlie Cook: Bush in Big Trouble

"President Bush must have a change in the dynamics and the fundamentals of this race if he is to win a second term," Charlie Cook writes. "The sluggishly recovering economy and renewed violence in Iraq don't seem likely to positively affect this race, but something needs to happen. It is extremely unlikely that President Bush will get much more than one-fourth of the undecided vote, and if that is the case, he will need to be walking into Election Day with a clear lead of perhaps three percentage points."

"This election is certainly not over, but for me, it will be a matter of watching for events or circumstances that will fundamentally change the existing equation — one that for now favors a challenger over an incumbent."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/08/11/bushs_challenge.html

This all sounds like a set-up.

They keep telling us George Bush needs to have a dramatic change to win right now and then the convention occurs and all the pundits will say "Wow, that was the exact change Bush needed to win."

Bush still has the better hand in this game. He is incumbant, he has more money, he doesn't have the press dogging his every conversation he has with his wife, and he gets a ton of free airplay of biased ads because they are so overthetop bad they are 'newsworthy'.

:scared:

Truly frightening things could happen to change the dynamic.

If Bush credibly comes out for radical tax reform--abolishing the IRS or something similar as has been hinted at by Dennis Haster--then the dynamic is def. in Bush's favor.
Does anyone actually believe that Karl Rove is gonna sit back and let the same thing happen to the son that happened to the father. No way.
Rove may be an sleazy manipulator, but he ain't stupid.
Even if there is nothing in foreign affairs that changes like capturing Osama, this radical tax reform thing could put it out of reach for Kerry.

nail the lid on *'s coffin.

ABC's execrably, self-importantly loathesome meta-news site, which includes a desPICably fawning review of the SWIFT BOAT novel!

cause Cook leans over BACKWARD to put things in the most favorable light fo the fascoids


he's considered an uber pundit by that same herd of COWS that considers Russert the toughest interviewer in the biz

always remember stuff like that

If he wrote this on November 1st, I'd pay attention. Bt it's the middle of hot, dull August... we have to endure Bush's convention and then the three debates. So much water to still flow under the bridge!

Between Cook and The Note, it's merely an expectations-lowering game.