ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL
Created by TRUTHISALL
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com
CURRENT POLL AVERAGES AND PROJECTIONS (%)
National - 15 popular polls.
State polling weighted by 2-party vote in last 3 elections.
Base Case Proj: 60% of undecided/other voters to Kerry.
(allocation changed 8/12 from 70% to 60%).
______ Curr. Curr. Curr. Proj. Proj. Proj. Elec.
______ Nat. State Comb. Nat. State Comb. Votes
Kerry 48.6 46.3 47.5 52.8 52.0 52.4 320
Bush 44.5 44.3 44.4 47.2 48.0 47.6 218
Diff 4.1 2.1 3.1 5.5 3.9 4.7 102
Other 6.9 9.4 8.2
KERRY WIN PROBABILITIES (%)
Curr Prob: proportional allocation of und/other.
Proj. State: EV wins in 1000 simulation trials.
______ Curr. Curr Curr. Proj. Proj Proj.
______ Nat. State Comb. Nat. State Comb.
Prob 90.6 96.9 93.7 94.9 99.8 97.3
NATIONAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Impact of various und/other allocation assumptions
Alloc. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
Vote 52.1 52.4 52.8 53.1 53.5
Prob 88.9 92.3 94.9 96.7 97.9
ELECTORAL VOTE / WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
One thousand election trials in each simulation.
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume: 50% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 51.0% of the vote.
Wins 96.9% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 303 electoral votes.
Max 351 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume: 60% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 52.0% of the vote.
Wins 99.8% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 320 electoral votes.
Max 372 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume: 70% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry 52.9% of the vote.
Wins 99.9% of 1000 election trials.
Avg 335 electoral votes.
Max 389 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.78 52.6%
Rep 125.03 47.4%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL TREND
Data source: PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 48.00 48 47 47 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49
Aug 45.86 45 44 48 na na 44 47 na na 49 44
NATIONAL POPULAR TREND
Data source: PollingReport.com
Average of 10 national polls:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME,DEMCORP
Kerry projected vote equals the poll average
plus his base case allocation of undecided/other voters.
Avg Polling Trend Projection
2004 Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 44.0 49.4 -5.4 45.1 54.9 -9.9
Feb 48.4 45.6 2.8 52.0 48.0 4.0
Mar 48.4 44.8 3.6 52.5 47.5 5.0
Apr 47.4 45.3 2.1 51.8 48.2 3.6
May 47.9 44.3 3.6 52.6 47.4 5.1
June 47.4 45.1 2.3 51.9 48.1 3.8
July 48.3 45.2 3.1 52.2 47.8 4.4
Aug 50.0 43.9 6.1 53.7 46.3 7.3
NATIONAL POLLS : POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES
48.60% Average (mean) of 15 national polls
4.16% Plus: Kerry und/other allocation
52.76% Equals: Projected Kerry vote
94.87% Kerry popular vote win probability
______ Poll Curr. Curr. Kerry/ Undecided/other alloc.
______ Date Kerry Bush Bush 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0
TIME 807 51 43 54.3 54.0 54.3 54.6 54.9 55.2
FOX 804 46 43 51.7 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.2 53.7
CNN/GAL 801 48 48 50.0 50.0 50.2 50.4 50.6 50.8
LAT 721 48 46 51.1 51.0 51.3 51.6 51.9 52.2
PEW 718 46 44 51.1 51.0 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0
IBD 806 49 43 53.3 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.6
CBS 730 49 43 53.3 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.6
DEMC 805 52 45 53.6 53.5 53.7 53.8 54.0 54.1
ABC/WP 802 52 45 53.6 53.5 53.7 53.8 54.0 54.1
NWK 730 52 44 54.2 54.0 54.2 54.4 54.6 54.8
ZOGBY 729 48 43 52.7 52.5 53.0 53.4 53.9 54.3
AP 806 48 45 51.6 51.5 51.9 52.2 52.6 52.9
NBC/WSJ 721 45 47 48.9 49.0 49.4 49.8 50.2 50.6
ARG 801 49 45 52.1 52.0 52.3 52.6 52.9 53.2
QPAC 722 46 43 51.7 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.2 53.7
Mean ______ 48.6 44.5 52.2 52.1 52.4 52.76 53.1 53.5
ProbWin ______ ______ ______ 90.6 88.9 92.3 94.87 96.7 97.9
MoE 3.31
Std 1.69
95% Confidence Interval
Max ______ 51.9 47.8 55.5 55.4 55.7 56.1 56.4 56.8
Min ______ 45.3 41.2 48.9 48.8 49.1 49.4 49.8 50.1
x ______ 47.8 47.8 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Prob>x ______ 68.6 2.5 90.6 88.9 92.3 94.87 96.7 97.9
99% Confidence Interval
Max ______ 53.0 48.8 56.6
Min ______ 44.2 40.1 47.9
x ______ 48.8 48.8 50.0
Prob>x ______ 44.6 0.5 90.6
95% Confidence Limits:
Max = Mean + 1.96 * Std
Min = Mean - 1.96 * Std
99% Confidence Limits:
Max = Mean + 2.58 * Std
Min = Mean - 2.58 * Std
MoE=1.96/(2*sqrt(n))
Std=.5/sqrt(n)
National Poll Average Mean
Sample 877
MoE 3.31%
Std 1.69%
Mean 15-poll 10-poll
Kerry 48.60% 50.00%
Bush 44.47% 43.88%
2pty 52.22% 53.26%
Prob 90.58% 97.33%
Kerry Win Probability Matrix (pop. vote)
(based on sample size and percent mean)
Sample Sample Std Kerry Pct of 2-party Vote
Size MoE Dev 50.5% 51.0% 52.0% 52.22% 53.26% 54.0% 55.0%
600 4.00% 2.04% 59.7 68.8 83.6 86.2 94.5 97.5 99.3
877 3.31% 1.69% 61.6 72.3 88.2 90.58 97.33 99.1 99.8
1000 3.10% 1.58% 62.4 73.6 89.7 92.0 98.0 99.4 99.9
2000 2.19% 1.12% 67.3 81.4 96.3 97.6 99.8 100.0 100.0
3000 1.79% 0.91% 70.8 86.3 98.6 99.3 100.0
4000 1.55% 0.79% 73.6 89.7 99.4 99.8
5000 1.39% 0.71% 76.0 92.1 99.8 99.9
6000 1.27% 0.65% 78.1 93.9 99.9 100.0
7000 1.17% 0.60% 79.9 95.3 100.0
8000 1.10% 0.56% 81.4 96.3
9000 1.03% 0.53% 82.9 97.1
10000 0.98% 0.50% 84.1 97.7
11000 0.93% 0.48% 85.3 98.2
12000 0.89% 0.46% 86.3 98.6
13000 0.86% 0.44% 87.3 98.9
14000 0.83% 0.42% 88.2 99.1
15000 0.80% 0.41% 89.0 99.3
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Kerry National and State Vote Projections
State vote%: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.
National vote%:Weighted sum of projected % state
votes.
Probability of a state win is based on projected %
vote.
Most Likely:60% undecided/other voters to Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 99.80% 51.97% 320
Bush 0.20% 48.03% 218
Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
Hist. Dem share vs Repub in last three presidential
elections.
______ Dem Kerry Kerry EV (election trials 1-10 of 1000)
______ Hist. Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
State 52.6% 51.97% 99.8% 317 314 298 295 335 325 310 331 333 310
AL 44.8 40.0 0.0
AK 37.6 39.6 0.0
AZ 48.8 49.2 34.8 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 49.6 42.2 6 6
CA 57.4 56.4 99.9 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 48.4 21.7 9 9 9
CT 57.7 60.8 100.0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 56.8 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 89.0 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 54.2 98.0 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.2 0.9
HI 59.0 54.6 98.8 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 37.0 0.0
IL 57.9 58.2 100.0 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 43.2 0.0
IA 51.8 51.6 78.3 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 40.8 0.0
KY 46.7 45.6 1.6
LA 49.2 43.2 0.0
ME 57.1 52.8 91.5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 57.8 100.0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 64.4 100.0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 54.4 98.4 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 51.8 81.1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 35.4 0.0
MO 52.5 50.8 65.2 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 41.4 0.0
NE 37.5 36.0 0.0
NV 49.9 50.4 57.8 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 54.4 98.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 61.4 100.0 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 54.2 98.0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 63.0 100.0 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 47.0 7.1 15
ND 40.8 36.6 0.0
OH 50.8 48.2 18.9 20 20
OK 42.8 40.8 0.0
OR 53.6 52.4 88.0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 54.6 98.8 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.6 100.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.0 7.1
SD 44.5 43.4 0.1
TN 50.5 49.6 42.2 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 41.8 0.0
UT 33.6 28.6 0.0
VT 59.4 58.8 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 49.2 34.8 13 13 13
WA 55.9 54.6 98.8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 52.8 91.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WI 52.7 51.2 72.2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.4 0.0
Avg 52.6% 51.97% 99.8% 317 314 298 295 335 325 310 331 333 310
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