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THE MATH Daily Widget – Wednesday, May 28 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +12.70

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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 06:43 AM
Original message
THE MATH Daily Widget – Wednesday, May 28 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +12.70
THE MATH Daily Widget – Wednesday, May 28 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +12.70








That's not a typo! Iowa has become the bluest of the swing states. Iowa has surpassed both Michigan and Wisconsin in it's blueness. New Mexico is gaining steam as well.

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

* * * * * * *

TRACKING











* * * * * * *








Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 06:45 AM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks phrigndumass!
Keep 'em coming.

:thumbsup:
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 06:55 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Thanks JD
:hi:

I am enjoying this.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:01 AM
Response to Original message
3. keep it up..you're doing a REAL service!
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:08 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Thanks Douglas!
I enjoy reading your posts as well.

:hi:
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:17 AM
Response to Original message
5. Obama picked up two superdelegates overnight :)
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/superdelegate-endorsements-for_28.html

From DemConWatch:

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Superdelegate endorsements for Wednesday 5/28

Obama picks up two superdelegates overnight and leads today 2 to 0:

Oregon Democratic Chair Meredith Wood Smith

Colorado Democratic Chair Pat Waak


:D
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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:24 AM
Response to Original message
6. K&R
To supplement the data up above:

Both Intrade and Rasmussen markets are trading the all states at a 293 delegate win for Obama.
The numbers on the two markets are almost entirely similar. (Intrade is real money, Rasmussens are play money)
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Good point ... Obama is leading both with 293 electoral votes to McCain's 245
Ammo for the fight. :D
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dascientist Donating Member (385 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:29 AM
Response to Original message
7. How close is the NC polling?
we elected a dem. governor during the primary and she supports Obama. Something tells me NC is going blue this time around.
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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. NC is consistently polling McCain around a +5 average
Edited on Wed May-28-08 07:34 AM by dbmk
Not that it can't change once Obama gets a nomination bump.

The good thing is that SUSA has half of those saying McCain as "Could change their mind" as opposed to 34% for Obama.
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 07:36 AM
Response to Original message
10. kick
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 08:05 AM
Response to Original message
11. Off-to-work kick
:kick: Enjoy your day
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Off to Obama Office kick!
Thanks for this information! rec'd
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Thanks for working for Obama!
:hi:
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. As an election intregrity activist I realize we have to grow the party to have steal proof
margins. Sen Obama's strategy for voter registration will not only help him and down ticket races this year but will improve our chances for the future (and then hopefully we can put integrity back into the elecotral process.)

:hi:
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Greyskye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
15. Widget Wuv
And they whirled and they twirled and they tango
Singin' and jinglin' a jangle
Floatin' like the heavens above
Looks like Widget Wuv!

(apologies to The Captain and Tennille)


:kick: & R
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-29-08 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. There's a meerkat version of that song now, lol
a la Meerkat Manor.

:hi:
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fight4my3sons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
16. Thanks phrigndumass! and go Iowa!
I appreciate all of this work that you do being that I am mathematically challenged :P
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-29-08 02:24 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. yw and thanks ... feel free to ask me anything ...
and I'll do my best to explain it to you. :7
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