Obama will not re-do the political map and he won't win one state in the South.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/05/28/questions_of_how_much_obama_can_redo_the_map/





The article states that he may have a chance to flip Colorado, he has a small chance to flip Virginia, and he has absolutely no chance to flip North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia.

What is Obama's electability argument?

Colorado and it's 9 electoral votes? :rofl: :rofl:

You could be the best campaigner and still lose states by large margins due to voting trends and demographics.

Let's just look at the polls today and save ourselves a whole lot of bother.

Solid red states in the South are not. Sorry to ruin the Obamite pipe dream about "re-arranging the map".

Just curious.

And yet, it's a legitimate question for you to ask in light of the OP's tone and frequent postings.

If Hillary got a vote for every time someone points out a flaw with Obama and then gets accused
of being against him winning the GE if he makes the primary, she would win in a landslide.

There are those here who have said that they will not support the Democratic candidate if it is not there particular choice. Its been said by HRC supporters and its been said by Obama supporters. Given that fact,why is it "a really stupid question" to ask whether someone who has on several occasions indicated their belief that Obama will lose the election to McCain whether they would be disappointed if they were wrong?

For the record, I voted for Obama in the Virginia primary, still want (and expect)him to be the nominee and will work very hard to help him win my home state. If for some reason he isn't the nominee, I will work just as hard to help them win my home state.

trying to be realistic is heresy in their view.

Like asking "Yes or no: have you stopped beating your wife."

dumb.

Someone posts the unequivocal statement, five months before the GE, that the presumptive (if not actual) Democratic party nominee will not win one state in the south and doesn't indicate whether they will lift a finger to try to prevent that outcome or call on others to join together to produce a different outcome deserves to be asked how whether or not that result would disappoint them, particularly on a board that is frequented by a number of posters (for both candidates) who declare that they will vote for no one but their chosen candidate, no matter who gets the nomination.

I'm guessing you've never looked at a purple map.

P.S. I'm just tired of the misinformation on this board that only Southern states are "red." In fact, they've only been red since 2000, whilst our brethern in the mid-West have been voting "red" for much longer. Also, keep in mind, that there are high concentrations of blue on the purple/red/blue maps around the Mississippi Delta and virtually no blue in any mid-Western state.

Just wanted to point that out... again.

no one is claiming that Obama is going to win the south (GA, SC and the like).


He remakes the map in the western and central states (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, North Dakota, Kansas, Iowa) He (unlike Hillary) is shown to hold states like Oregon and Wisconsin.

And yes Virginia and North Carolina are very much in play. With a 3 point shift Alaska and Texas join the blue club.

What's he going to replace them with? Colorado? Montana? Yeah, there's a ton of electoral votes there!

He can campaign all he wants in Mississippi ... I can tell you it's not going blue.

Bake

And if anybody can flip them, Obama can. Georgia, maybe (but only if the voting problems have been fixed there), and Colorado too. SC, Mississippi, highly doubtful.

The whole meme of 'swing states' is old school - the old politics of the DLC just don't apply.

I can't say much about NC, since I don't know much about its politics, but Virginia is purple and fast becoming even more so. We currently have a Democratic governor Kaine and democratic senator Webb. Also I think the OP is forgetting about northern Virginia, which is pretty liberal. Virginia can turn blue, but we have to be willing to work at it.

No surprises there!

Clinton follows the DNC "Only four states matter" policy

"You do know they gave the African Americans the right to vote!
Just saying"

... and tell us by how much Clinton will win the nomination.

Hillary is such a breath of fresh air with such low negatives that all of America would enthusiastically be falling all over themselves to vote for her. What or who could ever change that?

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

w(h)ine...I assume :shrug:

:evilgrin:

Obama may not win the south, but if he's competitive, he will force McCain to spread his meager resources. But of course, a Hillarist would never understand the 50-state strategy.

Period.

Obama has a chance to turn Mississippi competitive if he can capture around 20% of the white vote.

Go look at the 2000 and 2004 election maps. The heart of Mississippi overwhelming votes for Republicans.

MS-1, a heavily Republican district, just elected a Democratic Representative.

Three of Mississippi's four districts are now represented by Democrats.

are a lot different from high turnout presidential elections in Mississippi when we have a liberal Democratic candidate.

McCain 54% - Obama 39%
McCain 55% - Clinton 35%

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

:shrug:

In case you haven't noticed.

.

will you be pleased or disappointed?

I don't believe in magic.

fuck them if they persist in their rampant racism. Fuck them if they spit on The Union and think it's so cute and funny to fly the Confederate flag. We'll have to save Democracy without them, like we did in the 60s, with them fighting us tooth and nail. And tho they won't help, they'll still reap the benefits, as will we all.

That's the new map.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

You guys crack me up.

Of course we dems will vote for a dem but this racist card crap needs to stop.

A little defensive, there?

never said that other thing, yo


Doesn't take much to make you laugh, does it?

According to your little gang of delusional Hill supporters in Florida, or did you not see the video. I'm sure it will make you proud.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sy5mp7GUKKk

What a bunch of assholes...

Much less "rampant racism." Is this the new memo that only racists don't vote for Obama?

broadbrushing with all of your stereotypes.

They are the best. You have to be tough to stay liberal in that environment.

Obviously I was not referring to Democrats in the South in my post. I was talking about the General election, when we run against the Republicans and conservatives in the region they always win.

Most of the white people in the south didn't vote for Clinton, didn't vote for Gore, and didn't vote for Kerry. So it would be hard to call them loyal Democrats.

And yes I am a white Democrat and I live in the south.

to college at the U of Tennessee in Knoxville, and knew a lot of white Democrats.

"So it would be hard to call them loyal Democrats." :eyes:

I really get tired of all of the bashing of the South.

x(

edit: was not were.

she won't be on the ballot.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

Why do you seek so much attention?

Knowing that's the best way to bother as large an audience as possible.

Troll-like behavior.

And what would Hillary Flip?

If none, then what is her electability argument?

Seriously, I'm going to write a letter to my Secretary of State right now. I mean, if it is already a predetermined conclusion (5 1/2 months in advance) that McCain will win the general election here, then certainly we could just forego the election and my tax dollars could be used for a better purpose. Right? I mean really, why bother?

:eyes:

Obama will be lucky to win 1 of 5 of those states.

She also has a better chance of winning North Carolina than Obama.

And even at that, the people of that state don't seem to be too happy with having her around. She'd be lucky to make it close there.

As for FL, OH, and PA - those could go either way for the Democrats with either candidate. Going to have to rely on good campaigning and a clear message. Edge - Obama

West Virginia? Hopeless.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Hillary will win West Virginia if she is the nominee. Look at the polling data.

Hillary will likely win all three of FL, Ohio and PA while Obama will be lucky to win one state.

You know, the same math that says she can still be the nominee?

If not, you are just talking out of your ass...

In what fucking reality?

Now I'm SURE you don't know what you are talking about.

.

Seriously, it's OVER! Obama's got a 3 inch gimme putt to put this thing away. Hillary Clinton has every right to see this thing through to the end, but it's not changing anything. All you are doing now is helping McSame.

While Hillary is in the rough 40 yards from the pin.

It's over.

Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

But maybe my view is skewed because I live in the DC suburbs. The Democratic Party in my area is really active and organized and ripe to help turn the state blue.

When you ignore whole states and regions and Kerry and Gore did, then yes, you lose them very badly.

Sadly, that seems to be Hillary Clinton's approach this year, though her husband did not have that attitude in 1992 and 1996.

He just performed badly in most of them, especially the South.

Same thing will happen with Obama.

...and at seemingly inappropriate times/situations.


Despite this particular article, many others believe he DOES have a good chance to flip a lot of red states. Instead of tearing down our nominee, we should be helping him achieve this.

It's simply what shills and CT's do.

It goes both ways. It's hard for a Democrat to win in the South because of the backwards political logic. But if there's anything that southerners know, they know not to vote for a Clinton. Nothing gets them more stirred up than voting against a Clinton.

I contend that Obama is far more likely to make a race out of the south than Hillary. Virginia, Maryland, Mississippi, Louisiana, maybe even Georgia & North Carolina - Hillary doesn't stand a chance in those states.

I look so forward to that week of crying after we choose the nominee. I expect you to be the loudest.

Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Idaho, Virginia, Missouri. According to the polls I am looking at, most of those states have already flipped.

whereas if we had a different nominee, McCain could take them for granted and spend all his time and effort in Florida and Ohio. McCain is going to have to fight for Georgia, in particular, with an unprecedented African American turnout and Georgia native Bob Barr siphoning off votes from McCain.

Point Two: Hillary won't be the nominee.

Point Three: Hillary won't be on the ticket.

Point Four: Hillary will be lucky to hold her Senate seat.

Point Five: Still, nobody cares what you think.

supporting our candidate instead of smearing him!

It's highly unlikely that he (or any candidate) could pull off over a 9 point swing in Virginia in a presidential race.

The key will be the rust belt and smaller states like Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado.

Now you're in the south. Is this a farewell tour?

not because the methodology is too intricate and complicated for most lay people to understand. but because it's about as reliable as reading tea leaves. Whose map predicted '04 in June?

You may as well be arguing over the shape of a cloud.

The superdelegates aren't buying the electability argument. DU isn't buying it. Who is your audience, and what do you hope to accomplish?

I'm stealing that line from a commentator whose name escapes me. He was a black professor who was skeptical about the Obamaphenomenon.

Alan Keyes perhaps?

:shrug:

WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU?

Maybe you want to make sense?

and then plug Clinton's chance to pick up WV and its 5 electoral votes further down in this thread? Does every state only matter when they're more pro-Clinton states?

Looks like Virginia goes blue with Obama on the ticket

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e

but, since Americans have a poll fetish that borders on delusion (especially after so many have proved so wrong so many times this primary season) it's getting pointless to keep harping on it.

The main deal to look at in any political race is the swing required from the last election- how many it would take to reverse the result to 50.01% to your candidate (that's not including vote fraud on DRE's).

In Virginia that's a over a 9 point swing- something that rarely ever happens, and in all likelyhood won't happen this time either, considering the nature of the state and the dynamics of the election thus far.

You think results from an election 4 years ago are more reliable than a poll taken one month ago?

No wonder you Clinton supporters can't understand Obama's candidacy. You are rooted in the past. Every prediction you make for this election has been based on the past. Based on your past experience you predicted that all Hillary needed to do to win the election was beat Obama on Super Tuesday. Look how well that worked out. Based on past experience, you guys pointed out back in December that no candidate has ever captured more than 50% polling support among dems and then failed to go on to get the nomination. I suppose the swing that swept Jim Webb into office in Virginia was impossible as well?

Things have changed in Virginia in the last 4 years, the DC suburbs have grown, the state has taken on more of a blue tint. Put down the papers from four years ago and pick up today's paper. It's like Clinton supporters are determined to refight the election of 2004. It's 2008.

or how the poll you cited was done and what its biases are?

Highly unlikely- any more than you know about demographics and what it takes to create a swing that large.

In projections I've seen, Hillary is predicted to garner more electoral votes than Obama or McCain.

Electoral Votes: Clinton 327 McCain 194 Ties 17
Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May28.html

You have serious issues, don't you?

No polyps? Good. Now pull your head out of your ass and join reality.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/22/114749/521/263/520443
Updated: Shocking SUSA Obama 49% McCain 42% IN VIRGINIA!!!
Obama: 49%
McCain: 42%

Obama/Edwards: 53%
McCain/Huckabee: 41%

The Map has Changed, Electability has been redefined, and there is no Gender Gap in Virginia.


Men
Obama: 48%
McCain: 44%

Women
Obama: 51%
McCain: 40%

Independents:
Obama: 45%
McCain: 41%

Democrats:
Obama: 79%
McCain: 10%

Republicans:
Obama : 17%
McCain : 81%

Obama is Pulling more Republicans than McCain is pulling Democrats.

Plus, Pennsylvania looks just fine for Obama as well:



Okay, you can re-insert your head in your ass now.

Next time you emerge, groundhog style, Obama will be President.

And Hillary of Arc will be an also-ran in the "where are they now?" column.

:rofl:

Please do not make a case based on polls.

I'd love to see the kind of anti-Clinton junk you'be be posting if Hillary was winning.

Don't worry NJ, your worst fears will come true. Democrats are in, Republicans and assholes are out.

Kick for winning the GE...

Go Hillary!!

Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was...

Which will happen.

The Clinton DLC strategy of 270+1 failed last time, allowing Rs to spend money on the swing states and save $ on the south and west.
Competing everywhere is a winning strategy. As it was in the Democratic race!

Webb, Kaine and Warner are likely VP picks, and any one of them would probably help Obama carry Virgina. You seem to be in denial, here. (And even if Obama wouldn't carry a single Southern state, guess what? Neither would Hillary.)

I have beat the Clinton machine, while simultaneously battling the media, racism, and John McCain. That's his argument. How can your girl win if she can't even beat an "empty suit" and her campaign is in shambles and debt up to it's eyeballs? Amazing how you don't see the big ginormous holes in your argument.

he's only achieved whatever accuracy level he has because republican election theft has narrowed the gap between reality and his projections.

having said that, i agree that the shift is not going to be seismic. it's way too early to have a credible projection for november, but i'd guess obama 53%-47% mccain in terms of the two-way vote split. not a landslide, but the first clear, compelling victory in a long time. it's actually congress that looks really good for us, which is at least as important. it will be very nice to have a clear legislative majority in both houses that is too much for republican arm-twisting/bribery to derail.

:rofl:

I sure hope that it isn't a "must" win in his strategy.

why did you pick Hillary Clinton?

:rofl:

which puts Obama right at the number of electorial votes needed to win. This doesn't include Ohio or Florida but all the standard blue states out there that he'll probably win again in 2008.

At that point he just needs to flip about 1-2 states and I highly doubt it will be any of the southern states including Florida. But I do think Obama has a chance at some of the Midwestern states like New Mexico (who knows about Arizona since that's McCain's home state), Nevada and even Montana looks promise with a democrat governor and 2 democrat senators. And btw, that base count does NOT include Ohio - another state that Obama could win ESPECIALLY since Ohio now has a democratic governor and Secretary of State who will see to it that there are enough voting machines in heavy populated districts like Cleveland AND have all the votes count if there is any questions. We're not dealing with Kenneth Blackwell anymore!!!

I think Obama and Clinton are on equal footing in the south. For those who wouldn't vote for a black man to be president are probably unlikely to want a woman as president too.

n/t

That will win over a few votes.

First of all it's irrelevant now that the race is over and Barak Obama will be the nominee.

Average Polls in Nomination Race:

Obama 50.8/Clinton 40.8 = Obama +10

The nomination polls are the averages of Rasmussen Tracking, Gallup Tracking, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, Quinnipiac and Washington Post/ABC.

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

In that Sen. Obama has both John McCain and Hillary Clinton attacking him it is only common sense that this would have some negative effect on his ratings.

Average of National Polls:

Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1 = Obama + 2.6

Clinton 45.9/McCain 44.7 = Clinton + 1.2

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html
---------------------------------------

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

----------------------------

And here are the predictions from the financial markets:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450# )



Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November


-------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up":

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential

Jackass.

We elected our first Democratic State House Representative in over 20 years last election. Its amazing what can happen when people start paying attention.